Why Southeast Greenland's glaciers have slown down since 2005
I'm in San Francisco for the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world's largest gathering of climate scientists. I saw ten or so great talks yesterday (and five really boring ones!) Here's a summary of the the most interesting talk I heard yesterday:
If you plan on owning ocean front property after the year 2050, you should pay close attention to the glaciers In Greenland. Greenland holds enough ice to raise global sea level by over 20 feet (6.5 meters), should its ice cap completely disintegrate--though such an event would likely take centuries to occur. Still, should the climate warm 2°C or more this century, partial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet could readily raise global sea level by a meter or more by 2100. That's why scientists reacted with concern during 2003 - 2005, when all of the glaciers in southeastern Greenland accelerated in synchrony to speeds 30% to 210% faster than they had flowed in 1996. As they sped up, the glaciers began dumping huge amounts of ice into the ocean off the coast of southeast Greenland, more than doubling Greenland's contribution to global sea rise, to .57 mm/year. Would the glaciers keep accelerating, bringing about an increasing disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet? Nobody knew, since computer models of glacial dynamics were (and still are) in a primitive state.
Figure 1. Helheim Glacier in southeast Greenland, in three images captured in 2004, 2005, and 2006. The glacier accelerated significantly in 2005, and the face of the glacier retreated 5 km inland (middle frame) compared to 2004. However, by the summer of 2006, the acceleration ceased, the the glacier returned back to its 2004 position. Image credit: Ian Howat, University of Washington.
Well, it turned out that 2005 was the peak of the glacial acceleration event. The glaciers in southeast Greenland have returned to where they were eight or nine years ago--still causing a net loss of mass that is raising global sea level, but not as fast as in 2003 - 2005. In a talk titled, "Ocean regulation of glacier dynamics in south-east Greenland and implication for ice sheet mass changes", Tavi Murray and colleagues from the UK's Swansea University presented a plausible theory for why this strange synchronous speed-up and slow-down occurred. Using satellite, aircraft, and surface observations, the researchers found that air temperatures in the region did not vary much over 2003 - 2005 (Figure 2). Thus, a major increase in temperature could be ruled out as the cause of the glacier surge. However, study of the ocean temperatures near the coast revealed strong clues that ocean currents were responsible for the surge.
Figure 2. Ocean currents off the east coast of Greenland feature the cold East Greenland Coastal Current flowing north to south (white arrows) and the warm Irminger Current flowing south to north (red arrows). Image credit: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.
Ordinarily, the southeast coast of Greenland features a cold water current flowing north to south, called the East Greenland Coastal Current (EGCC). Much of the cold water for this current is supplied by melting of the 14 glaciers in southeast Greenland that empty into the sea (two of these glaciers, Kangerdlugssuaq and Helheim, represent 35% of east Greenland's total glacial discharge). A few hundred kilometers offshore, a warm water current called the Irminger Current flows the opposite direction, bringing warm water from the North Atlantic northward. In 2003, it happened that weather conditions over Greenland brought an unusually low amount of run-off of precipitation. With little new mass pushing the glaciers seaward, the glaciers responded by greatly reducing the amount of ice they dumped into the ocean by the shore. As a result, the East Greenland Coastal Current slowed down and warmed, which allowed the warm Irminger Current to advance towards the coast, warming the coastal waters even more. All that warm water near the coast began melting the glaciers where they reached the sea, causing the glaciers all along the southeast coast of Greenland to accelerate and rapidly thin between 2003 - 2005. By 2006, the thinning glaciers had dumped so much new ice into the ocean near the coast that the waters cooled and the East Greenland Coastal Current re-established itself. This cooled the glaciers at their marine termination points and slowed down the glacial surge, putting the glaciers back where they had been before 2003. This is a classic example of a negative feedback process--a change in weather conditions which generates a response, but the response creates conditions that tend to dampen the response.
Figure 3. Average temperatures for the only station in southeast Greenland with a century-long temperature record, Angmagssalik (called Ammassalik on the map in Figure 2). Temperatures in southeast Greenland during the 1930s and 1940s were similar to today's temperatures, suggesting that glacial surges like we witnessed in 2005 may have also occurred in the 1930s and 1940s, before we had monitoring capability. Image credit: NASA Goddard.
Commentary
As I commented in my previous post, Arctic sea ice loss appears to have created a new atmospheric circulation pattern that brings more warm air in the Arctic, creating a positive feedback loop that causes even more sea ice loss. This positive feedback loop was a bad news surprise that our climate models did not predict. Now we have evidence of a good news surprise that no model predicted--a negative feedback loop that acts to keep the southeast portion of Greenland's Ice Sheet from runaway glacial acceleration. We can expect many more surprises--good and bad--over the coming decades, as our climate responds to the huge shove human activities are giving it.
Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".
Next post
I'll have another post from the AGU meeting Thursday or Friday this week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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HERE are the 100 reasons, released in a dossier issued by the European Foundation, why climate change is natural and not man-made:
1) There is “no real scientific proof” that the current warming is caused by the rise of greenhouse gases from man’s activity.
2) Man-made carbon dioxide emissions throughout human history constitute less than 0.00022 percent of the total naturally emitted from the mantle of the earth during geological history.
3) Warmer periods of the Earth’s history came around 800 years before rises in CO2 levels.
4) After World War II, there was a huge surge in recorded CO2 emissions but global temperatures fell for four decades after 1940.
5) Throughout the Earth’s history, temperatures have often been warmer than now and CO2 levels have often been higher – more than ten times as high.
6) Significant changes in climate have continually occurred throughout geologic time.
7) The 0.7C increase in the average global temperature over the last hundred years is entirely consistent with well-established, long-term, natural climate trends.
8) The IPCC theory is driven by just 60 scientists and favourable reviewers not the 4,000 usually cited.
9) Leaked e-mails from British climate scientists – in a scandal known as “Climate-gate” - suggest that that has been manipulated to exaggerate global warming
10) A large body of scientific research suggests that the sun is responsible for the greater share of climate change during the past hundred years.
11) Politicians and activiists claim rising sea levels are a direct cause of global warming but sea levels rates have been increasing steadily since the last ice age 10,000 ago
12) Philip Stott, Emeritus Professor of Biogeography at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London says climate change is too complicated to be caused by just one factor, whether CO2 or clouds
13) Peter Lilley MP said last month that “fewer people in Britain than in any other country believe in the importance of global warming. That is despite the fact that our Government and our political class—predominantly—are more committed to it than their counterparts in any other country in the world”.
14) In pursuit of the global warming rhetoric, wind farms will do very little to nothing to reduce CO2 emissions
15) Professor Plimer, Professor of Geology and Earth Sciences at the University of Adelaide, stated that the idea of taking a single trace gas in the atmosphere, accusing it and finding it guilty of total responsibility for climate change, is an “absurdity”
16) A Harvard University astrophysicist and geophysicist, Willie Soon, said he is “embarrassed and puzzled” by the shallow science in papers that support the proposition that the earth faces a climate crisis caused by global warming.
17) The science of what determines the earth’s temperature is in fact far from settled or understood.
18) Despite activist concerns over CO2 levels, CO2 is a minor greenhouse gas, unlike water vapour which is tied to climate concerns, and which we can’t even pretend to control
19) A petition by scientists trying to tell the world that the political and media portrayal of global warming is false was put forward in the Heidelberg Appeal in 1992. Today, more than 4,000 signatories, including 72 Nobel Prize winners, from 106 countries have signed it.
20) It is claimed the average global temperature increased at a dangerously fast rate in the 20th century but the recent rate of average global temperature rise has been between 1 and 2 degrees C per century - within natural rates
21) Professor Zbigniew Jaworowski, Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw, Poland says the earth’s temperature has more to do with cloud cover and water vapor than CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
22) There is strong evidence from solar studies which suggests that the Earth’s current temperature stasis will be followed by climatic cooling over the next few decades
23) It is myth that receding glaciers are proof of global warming as glaciers have been receding and growing cyclically for many centuries
24) It is a falsehood that the earth’s poles are warming because that is natural variation and while the western Arctic may be getting somewhat warmer we also see that the Eastern Arctic and Greenland are getting colder
25) The IPCC claims climate driven “impacts on biodiversity are significant and of key relevance” but those claims are simply not supported by scientific research
26) The IPCC threat of climate change to the world’s species does not make sense as wild species are at least one million years old, which means they have all been through hundreds of climate cycles
27) Research goes strongly against claims that CO2-induced global warming would cause catastrophic disintegration of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets.
28) Despite activist concerns over CO2 levels, rising CO2 levels are our best hope of raising crop yields to feed an ever-growing population
29) The biggest climate change ever experienced on earth took place around 700 million years ago
30) The slight increase in temperature which has been observed since 1900 is entirely consistent with well-established, long-term natural climate cycles
31) Despite activist concerns over CO2 levels, rising CO2 levels of some so-called “greenhouse gases” may be contributing to higher oxygen levels and global cooling, not warming
32) Accurate satellite, balloon and mountain top observations made over the last three decades have not shown any significant change in the long term rate of increase in global temperatures
33) Today’s CO2 concentration of around 385 ppm is very low compared to most of the earth’s history – we actually live in a carbon-deficient atmosphere
34) It is a myth that CO2 is the most common greenhouse gas because greenhouse gases form about 3% of the atmosphere by volume, and CO2 constitutes about 0.037% of the atmosphere
35) It is a myth that computer models verify that CO2 increases will cause significant global warming because computer models can be made to “verify” anything
36) There is no scientific or statistical evidence whatsoever that global warming will cause more storms and other weather extremes
37) One statement deleted from a UN report in 1996 stated that “none of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed climate changes to increases in greenhouse gases”
38) The world “warmed” by 0.07 +/- 0.07 degrees C from 1999 to 2008, not the 0.20 degrees C expected by the IPCC
39) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says “it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense” but there has been no increase in the intensity or frequency of tropical cyclones globally
40) Rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere can be shown not only to have a negligible effect on the Earth’s many ecosystems, but in some cases to be a positive help to many organisms
41) Researchers who compare and contrast climate change impact on civilizations found warm periods are beneficial to mankind and cold periods harmful
42) The Met Office asserts we are in the hottest decade since records began but this is precisely what the world should expect if the climate is cyclical
43) Rising CO2 levels increase plant growth and make plants more resistant to drought and pests
44) The historical increase in the air’s CO2 content has improved human nutrition by raising crop yields during the past 150 years
45) The increase of the air’s CO2 content has probably helped lengthen human lifespans since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution
46) The IPCC alleges that “climate change currently contributes to the global burden of disease and premature deaths” but the evidence shows that higher temperatures and rising CO2 levels has helped global populations
47) In May of 2004, the Russian Academy of Sciences published a report concluding that the Kyoto Protocol has no scientific grounding at all.
48) The “Climate-gate” scandal pointed to a expensive public campaign of disinformation and the denigration of scientists who opposed the belief that CO2 emissions were causing climate change
49) The head of Britain’s climate change watchdog has predicted households will need to spend up to £15,000 on a full energy efficiency makeover if the Government is to meet its ambitious targets for cutting carbon emissions.
50) Wind power is unlikely to be the answer to our energy needs. The wind power industry argues that there are “no direct subsidies” but it involves a total subsidy of as much as £60 per MWh which falls directly on electricity consumers. This burden will grow in line with attempts to achieve Wind power targets, according to a recent OFGEM report.
51) Wind farms are not an efficient way to produce energy. The British Wind Energy Association (BWEA) accepts a figure of 75 per cent back-up power is required.
52) Global temperatures are below the low end of IPCC predictions not at “at the top end of IPCC estimates”
53) Climate alarmists have raised the concern over acidification of the oceans but Tom Segalstad from Oslo University in Norway , and others, have noted that the composition of ocean water – including CO2, calcium, and water – can act as a buffering agent in the acidification of the oceans.
54) The UN’s IPCC computer models of human-caused global warming predict the emergence of a “hotspot” in the upper troposphere over the tropics. Former researcher in the Australian Department of Climate Change, David Evans, said there is no evidence of such a hotspot
55) The argument that climate change is a of result of global warming caused by human activity is the argument of flat Earthers.
56) The manner in which US President Barack Obama sidestepped Congress to order emission cuts shows how undemocratic and irrational the entire international decision-making process has become with regards to emission-target setting.
57) William Kininmonth, a former head of the National Climate Centre and a consultant to the World Meteorological Organisation, wrote “the likely extent of global temperature rise from a doubling of CO2 is less than 1C. Such warming is well within the envelope of variation experienced during the past 10,000 years and insignificant in the context of glacial cycles during the past million years, when Earth has been predominantly very cold and covered by extensive ice sheets.”
58) Canada has shown the world targets derived from the existing Kyoto commitments were always unrealistic and did not work for the country.
59) In the lead up to the Copenhagen summit, David Davis MP said of previous climate summits, at Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and Kyoto in 1997 that many had promised greater cuts, but “neither happened”, but we are continuing along the same lines.
60) The UK ’s environmental policy has a long-term price tag of about £55 billion, before taking into account the impact on its economic growth.
61) The UN’s panel on climate change warned that Himalayan glaciers could melt to a fifth of current levels by 2035. J. Graham Cogley a professor at Ontario Trent University, claims this inaccurate stating the UN authors got the date from an earlier report wrong by more than 300 years.
62) Under existing Kyoto obligations the EU has attempted to claim success, while actually increasing emissions by 13 per cent, according to Lord Lawson. In addition the EU has pursued this scheme by purchasing “offsets” from countries such as China paying them billions of dollars to destroy atmospheric pollutants, such as CFC-23, which were manufactured purely in order to be destroyed.
63) It is claimed that the average global temperature was relatively unchanging in pre-industrial times but sky-rocketed since 1900, and will increase by several degrees more over the next 100 years according to Penn State University researcher Michael Mann. There is no convincing empirical evidence that past climate was unchanging, nor that 20th century changes in average global temperature were unusual or unnatural.
64) Michael Mann of Penn State University has actually shown that the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age did in fact exist, which contrasts with his earlier work which produced the “hockey stick graph” which showed a constant temperature over the past thousand years or so followed by a recent dramatic upturn.
65) The globe’s current approach to climate change in which major industrialised countries agree to nonsensical targets for their CO2 emissions by a given date, as it has been under the Kyoto system, is very expensive.
66) The “Climate-gate” scandal revealed that a scientific team had emailed one another about using a “trick” for the sake of concealing a “decline” in temperatures when looking at the history of the Earth’s temperature.
67) Global temperatures have not risen in any statistically-significant sense for 15 years and have actually been falling for nine years. The “Climate-gate” scandal revealed a scientific team had expressed dismay at the fact global warming was contrary to their predictions and admitted their inability to explain it was “a travesty”.
68) The IPCC predicts that a warmer planet will lead to more extreme weather, including drought, flooding, storms, snow, and wildfires. But over the last century, during which the IPCC claims the world experienced more rapid warming than any time in the past two millennia, the world did not experience significantly greater trends in any of these extreme weather events.
69) In explaining the average temperature standstill we are currently experiencing, the Met Office Hadley Centre ran a series of computer climate predictions and found in many of the computer runs there were decade-long standstills but none for 15 years – so it expects global warming to resume swiftly.
70) Richard Lindzen, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wrote: “The notion of a static, unchanging climate is foreign to the history of the Earth or any other planet with a fluid envelope. Such hysteria (over global warming) simply represents the scientific illiteracy of much of the public, the susceptibility of the public to the substitution of repetition for truth.”
71) Despite the 1997 Kyoto Protocol’s status as the flagship of the fight against climate change it has been a failure.
72) The first phase of the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which ran from 2005 to 2007 was a failure. Huge over-allocation of permits to pollute led to a collapse in the price of carbon from €33 to just €0.20 per tonne meaning the system did not reduce emissions at all.
73) The EU trading scheme, to manage carbon emissions has completely failed and actually allows European businesses to duck out of making their emissions reductions at home by offsetting, which means paying for cuts to be made overseas instead.
74) To date “cap and trade” carbon markets have done almost nothing to reduce emissions.
75) In the United States , the cap-and-trade is an approach designed to control carbon emissions and will impose huge costs upon American citizens via a carbon tax on all goods and services produced in the United States. The average family of four can expect to pay an additional $1700, or £1,043, more each year. It is predicted that the United States will lose more than 2 million jobs as the result of cap-and-trade schemes.
76) Dr Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, has indicated that out of the 21 climate models tracked by the IPCC the differences in warming exhibited by those models is mostly the result of different strengths of positive cloud feedback – and that increasing CO2 is insufficient to explain global-average warming in the last 50 to 100 years.
77) Why should politicians devote our scarce resources in a globally competitive world to a false and ill-defined problem, while ignoring the real problems the entire planet faces, such as: poverty, hunger, disease or terrorism.
78) A proper analysis of ice core records from the past 650,000 years demonstrates that temperature increases have come before, and not resulted from, increases in CO2 by hundreds of years.
79) Since the cause of global warming is mostly natural, then there is in actual fact very little we can do about it. (We are still not able to control the sun).
80) A substantial number of the panel of 2,500 climate scientists on the United Nation’s International Panel on Climate Change, which created a statement on scientific unanimity on climate change and man-made global warming, were found to have serious concerns.
81) The UK’s Met Office has been forced this year to re-examine 160 years of temperature data after admitting that public confidence in the science on man-made global warming has been shattered by revelations about the data.
82) Politicians and activists push for renewable energy sources such as wind turbines under the rhetoric of climate change, but it is essentially about money – under the system of Renewable Obligations. Much of the money is paid for by consumers in electricity bills. It amounts to £1 billion a year.
83) The “Climate-gate” scandal revealed that a scientific team had tampered with their own data so as to conceal inconsistencies and errors.
84) The “Climate-gate” scandal revealed that a scientific team had campaigned for the removal of a learned journal’s editor, solely because he did not share their willingness to debase science for political purposes.
85) Ice-core data clearly show that temperatures change centuries before concentrations of atmospheric CO2 change. Thus, there appears to be little evidence for insisting that changes in concentrations of CO2 are the cause of past temperature and climate change.
86) There are no experimentally verified processes explaining how CO2 concentrations can fall in a few centuries without falling temperatures – in fact it is changing temperatures which cause changes in CO2 concentrations, which is consistent with experiments that show CO2 is the atmospheric gas most readily absorbed by water.
87) The Government’s Renewable Energy Strategy contains a massive increase in electricity generation by wind power costing around £4 billion a year over the next twenty years. The benefits will be only £4 to £5 billion overall (not per annum). So costs will outnumber benefits by a range of between eleven and seventeen times.
88) Whilst CO2 levels have indeed changed for various reasons, human and otherwise, just as they have throughout history, the CO2 content of the atmosphere has increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution, and the growth rate has now been constant for the past 25 years.
89) It is a myth that CO2 is a pollutant, because nitrogen forms 80% of our atmosphere and human beings could not live in 100% nitrogen either: CO2 is no more a pollutant than nitrogen is and CO2 is essential to life.
90) Politicians and climate activists make claims to rising sea levels but certain members in the IPCC chose an area to measure in Hong Kong that is subsiding. They used the record reading of 2.3 mm per year rise of sea level.
91) The accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998.
92) If one factors in non-greenhouse influences such as El Nino events and large volcanic eruptions, lower atmosphere satellite-based temperature measurements show little, if any, global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 ppm (17 per cent).
93) US President Barack Obama pledged to cut emissions by 2050 to equal those of 1910 when there were 92 million Americans. In 2050, there will be 420 million Americans, so Obama’s promise means that emissions per head will be approximately what they were in 1875. It simply will not happen.
94) The European Union has already agreed to cut emissions by 20 percent to 2020, compared with 1990 levels, and is willing to increase the target to 30 percent. However, these are unachievable and the EU has already massively failed with its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), as EU emissions actually rose by 0.8 percent from 2005 to 2006 and are known to be well above the Kyoto goal.
95) Australia has stated it wants to slash greenhouse emissions by up to 25 percent below 2000 levels by 2020, but the pledges were so unpopular that the country’s Senate has voted against the carbon trading Bill, and the Opposition’s Party leader has now been ousted by a climate change sceptic.
96) Canada plans to reduce emissions by 20 percent compared with 2006 levels by 2020, representing approximately a 3 percent cut from 1990 levels but it simultaneously defends its Alberta tar sands emissions and its record as one of the world’s highest per-capita emissions setters.
97) India plans to reduce the ratio of emissions to production by 20-25 percent compared with 2005 levels by 2020, but all Government officials insist that since India has to grow for its development and poverty alleviation, it has to emit, because the economy is driven by carbon.
98) The Leipzig Declaration in 1996, was signed by 110 scientists who said: “We – along with many of our fellow citizens – are apprehensive about the climate treaty conference scheduled for Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997” and “based on all the evidence available to us, we cannot subscribe to the politically inspired world view that envisages climate catastrophes and calls for hasty actions.”
99) A US Oregon Petition Project stated “We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind. There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of CO2, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate.”
100) A report by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change concluded “We find no support for the IPCC’s claim that climate observations during the twentieth century are either unprecedented or provide evidence of an anthropogenic effect on climate.”
'nuff said. the sky is NOT falling.
285 Kilometers per Hour = 177.09078978764018 Miles per Hour.
Id be making all preps to Save Life and Property as Cyclone Laurence seems to be bent on a Path.
Camille comes to mind.
Bad Mojo down under.....
Small,Cat 5..24-ft surge.
Dont be there when he crosses the coast.
SH062010 - Tropical Cyclone LAURENCE
A link would have worked just fine. LOL.
Thomas Paine simply outlined what he forsaw as the best form of government which would be representative of the different people who had different needs depending on where they lived. He understood that as societies grew, the need for a central government was necessary to enfore the laws and regulations which would ensure a certain stability. He outlined in simple language the difference between the then, current British system of an aristocracy which was out of touch with the social needs of their own people. He felt a representative government was the best form for the common people, hence naming it "Common Sense" Your point was well taken.
Factoid: Factoid
Fact: Fact
For example, in layman's terms, justifying doing nothing about dumping air pollutants and addressing deforestation based upon the premise that the earth is so old that we cannot possibly accumulate enough data in one century or even a half century to justify doing anything about what we observe is a factoid. It is taking a small bit of truth and stretching it to further than it should be taken.
A fact is what is the truth. What is observed and what we know. Based upon facts, we formulate problems and resolve them.
This is Common Sense.
Have now re-set to Kendall Tamiami Airport. I guess I"m somewhat cheered :(
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Breezy...colder. Lows 44 to 48. Lowest wind chill readings 35 to 40.
Monday
Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs in the upper 60s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows 44 to 48.
Now I'll go read (sing) it! LOL.
There is fun that is misconstrued.
Then there are personal attacks.
398. stormobserver 8:57 PM EST on December 15, 2009 Hide this comment.
Spathy is just a racist crank who got banned for 96 hours for posting racist pictures last summer
Action: Quote | Ignore User
If this above was meant in fun.
Sorry I missed the joke.
Again
Any constructive reply's from my posting would be welcome.
Time
EST (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 9 PM (2) Dec 15 73.9 (23.3) 71.1 (21.7) 30.09 (1018) Calm
8 PM (1) Dec 15 75.0 (23.9) 71.1 (21.7) 30.07 (1018) Calm
7 PM (0) Dec 15 77.0 (25.0) 72.0 (22.2) 30.04 (1017) ESE 6
6 PM (23) Dec 15 78.1 (25.6) 72.0 (22.2) 30.04 (1017) ESE 3
5 PM (22) Dec 15 81.0 (27.2) 71.1 (21.7) 30.03 (1016) ESE 10
4 PM (21) Dec 15 82.9 (28.3) 70.0 (21.1) 30.02 (1016) SSE 7
3 PM (20) Dec 15 84.0 (28.9) 71.1 (21.7) 30.02 (1016) SE 8
2 PM (19) Dec 15 84 (29) 71 (22) 30.02 (1016) ESE 9
1 PM (18) Dec 15 82.9 (28.3) 71.1 (21.7) 30.04 (1017) SE 8
Noon (17) Dec 15 84.9 (29.4) 70.0 (21.1) 30.06 (1017) SSE 8
11 AM (16) Dec 15 84.0 (28.9) 71.1 (21.7) 30.08 (1018) SSE 10
10 AM (15) Dec 15 82.0 (27.8) 72.0 (22.2) 30.09 (1018) SE 10
9 AM (14) Dec 15 80.1 (26.7) 73.9 (23.3) 30.08 (1018) ENE 3
8 AM (13) Dec 15 75.9 (24.4) 75.0 (23.9) 30.07 (1018) Calm
7 AM (12) Dec 15 75.0 (23.9) 75.0 (23.9) 30.06 (1017) Calm light rain
6 AM (11) Dec 15 73 (23) 71 (22) 30.06 (1017) SSW 5 rain; mist
5 AM (10) Dec 15 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 30.04 (1017) Calm
4 AM (9) Dec 15 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 30.04 (1017) Calm
3 AM (8) Dec 15 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 30.04 (1017) Calm
2 AM (7) Dec 15 75.9 (24.4) 71.1 (21.7) 30.05 (1017) NE 3
1 AM (6) Dec 15 73 (23) 69 (21) 30.05 (1017) E 5
Midnight (5) Dec 15 73.0 (22.8) 70.0 (21.1) 30.05 (1017) E 6
11 PM (4) Dec 14 73.0 (22.8) 70.0 (21.1) 30.06 (1017) E 7
Oldest 10 PM (3) Dec 14 73.9 (23.3) 70.0 (21.1) 30.06 (1017) E 6
hey TD
Your just in time for 100 bottles of beer on the wall.
They are on tonight!!!
haha sounds good, how is everyone?
Tulane professor who drowned in rain-swollen canal remembered as hero
By C.J. Lin, The Times-Picayune
December 15, 2009, 6:21PM
Red tape and idiotic local BS took a Life that could easily been prevented.
Einstein was right.
sorry, stormobserver, that most definitely IS a personal attack, and shall be flagged as such.
Repeatedly.
I kind of like #24.
It is a falsehood that the earth's poles are warming because that is natural variation and while the western Arctic may be getting somewhat warmer we also see that the Eastern Arctic and Greenland are getting colder
Really not a coherent thought there.
I think TD prefers to sing to 100 cans of Urge on the wall!!!!! OOPS, make that 99, I just finished one.
Link
So sorry to read that.
Hey Pat, are you drying out yet?
:-P
ROFL, you guys and that Urge!
Pat, that story tears me up. So sad reading that. That poor woman will think about that day the rest of her life.
my thoughts.... hmmm....
well the world is going to end in 2 years anyway, so why bother? I'm going to get a credit card, buy a new car, burn as much fuel as possible, and leave the lights on all the time. Who cares, right? we won't be here in 2 years :P
No offense mia, but I think you are misreading this just a bit. Do you have the link to the main page? There is nothing in our forecast that suggests anything like this at all. Nothing even near it.
Im going to the funeral,..a lot of Local wu-bloggers are Tulane students..
This doesn't apply here.
But there are laws in court that disallow the bringing forth of evidence of a defendants record. It cant be used against them.
Thus rendering a non bias result
Again!!!
Any thing constructive to contradict the post?
And just for the record.
The picture/post was not removed due to any racist content.
It was removed for a bad word contained under the picture that I (MY FAULT) missed.
As proof I re posted the picture again without the word (Donkeys posterior)
It was flagged many times and not removed.
Again do you wish to respond to the content of my post that has warranted such attack?
I didn't know that. I think the family will appreciate each and every individual. When are the services being held? Did they ever recover the body?
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 39
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE, CAT 5 (01U)
9:00 am AWST December 16 2009
==========================================
At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 5 (933 hPa) located at 15.4S 124.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The severe cyclone was estimated to be 35 kms west northwest of Kuri Bay and 220 kms north northeast of Derby and moving southwest at 5 knots.
Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center
Dvorak Intensity: D6.5/6.5/D2.0/ 24HRS
Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but very intense tropical cyclone having VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 285 kilometres per hour close to the cyclone centre. VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts are possible on the coast near Kuri Bay during today.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour will extend further southwest along the coast, reaching Cockatoo and Koolan Islands during the day. Should the centre pass close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible during the afternoon and evening. GALES, and possibly DESTRUCTIVE winds may extend to Derby and Beagle Bay on Thursday morning.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region, extending into the western Kimberley later today and during Thursday. Daily rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible near the coast with totals decreasing further inland.
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle Bay and adjacent inland parts.
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga and extending inland towards Fitzroy Crossing.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.2S 123.7E - 105 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 16.7S 123.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 17.7S 122.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 18.0S 121.3E - 50 knot (CAT 2)
Additional Information
======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small and very intense system. A well defined eye has been evident on microwave and IR imagery. EIR analysis was consistently giving a DT of 6.5 and FT is assigned on this basis with no constraints broken following reanalysis of previous imagery. The latest image shows some filling of the eye with the warmest eye temp grey shade being white, which will imply a weakening trend if it continues.
It has remained sufficiently off the coast and is in a very favourable low shear environment. Guidance indicates the shear environment will remain generally favourable over the next 48-72 hours despite some fluctuation. Only interaction with land is likely to weaken the system, hence the forecast intensity is dependent on the track. The track is likely to become more southerly during today under the influence of a highly meridional mid level pattern with a stationary trough to the west and an anticyclone to the east.
A more westerly track is possible during Friday and in the longer term the system may move offshore and redevelop.
Funeral services are Wednesday from 3 to 6 p.m. at Lake Lawn Metairie Funeral Home and Cemeteries, 5100 Pontchartrain Blvd. in New Orleans. A memorial service will be held in the auditorium of Tulane University's School of Medicine, 1430 Tulane Ave. on Thursday at 5 p.m.
C.J. Lin can be reached at clin@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3796.
Thanx aussie..
And may God be with your countrymen as Cyclone Laurence makes his move..
We are watching it closely too, here.
Thanks Pat.
Back to the regularly scheduled program of a really cool/ DANGEROUS storm.
Lets keep an eye on it so anyone in its path can be prepared.
Sorry for the interruption.
I looked and you're right. So why doesn't my local WU weather page match up /NWS at this time? Mostly it does.
sounds good!
Interesting political analogy to the traditional reigning G7 and new power G20 today, with "The People" now representing world population.
I was trying to figure out what had the Cophenhagen talks stalled this morning.
It looks like China, considered among the "developing nation" class, will not agree to any outside monitoring of its emissions. I think also the developing nations get bigger emissions leeway than the developed ones, such as the U.S. And the U.S. is basing its refusal to cooperate based upon the Chinese stance. I don't know what India, another big polluter, thinks. Probably just hoping the Chinese and U.S. continue to battle it out so nobody has to adhere to anything responsibly.
Ive been banned twice?
Wow you know more about me than me.
Storm B
Your next!
And BTW
I apologized to all that a bad word contained in a link from my mother.
That I didn't read thoroughly enough to catch a bad word.
Anything constructive yet?
Spathy contrite !!!
And YOU?
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