How oil might affect a hurricane
There's no major changes to the forecast for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. As I discussed in yesterday's post, on Sunday, the winds will begin increasing and shifting to the southeast. The latest run of the GFS model shows that this will be a week-long period of southeast winds, with wind speeds at times reaching 20 - 25 knots. These winds will threaten to bring oil to a large portion of the Louisiana coast, including regions of the central Louisiana coast west of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi and Alabama coasts will also be at risk next week, but the risk to the Florida Panhandle is lower. Yesterday's post also has the long-range outlook for oil to get into the Loop Current and spread to the Florida Keys and beyond.
What will oil in the Gulf of Mexico do to a hurricane?
With hurricane season fast approaching and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico likely to still be around once hurricane season starts in June, we need to ask, how will oil affect any hurricanes that might traverse over the spill? And how might a hurricane's wind and storm surge affect the spill? Let's consider the first of those questions today.
From the time of the ancient Greeks to the days of the wooden ships and iron men, mariners dumped barrels of oil onto raging seas to calm them during critical moments of violent storms (Wyckoff, 1886.) Oil does indeed calm wind-driven waves, thanks to the reduction in surface tension of the water that oil causes. Ripples with a wavelength shorter than 17 mm are affected by surface tension, and these ripples then cause a feedback that reduces the height of larger waves with longer wavelengths (Scott, 1986.) The reduction of surface tension also impacts the flow of air above the water, and reduces the amount of sea spray thrown into the air, both of which could affect the wind speed. Oil also damps waves by forming a thick, viscous film at the top of the water that resists water motion (Scott, 1999.) Oil also helps calm raging seas by switching off of the wind energy input needed by the wave to break. This occurs because the surface film of oil prevents the generation of ripples on the exposed crests of the waves, and this smoother surface makes the wind less able to grab onto the wave and force it to break.
So, what would happen to a hurricane that encounters a large region of oily waters? A 2005 paper by Barenblatt et al. theorize that spray droplets hurled into the air by a hurricane's violent winds form a layer intermediate between air and sea made up of a cloud of droplets that can be viewed as a "third fluid". The large droplets in the air suppress turbulence in this "third fluid", decrease the frictional drag over the ocean surface, and accelerate the winds. According to this theory of turbulence, oil dumped on the surface of the ocean would reduce the formation of wind-whipped spray droplets, potentially calming the winds. The authors propose spraying oil on the surface of the ocean to reduce the winds of a hurricane. However, the turbulence theory championed by Barenblatt et al. has been challenged by other scientists. In a 2005 interview with Newscientist magazine, turbulence expect Julian Hunt at University College London, UK, remarks, "I am very doubtful about this approach." Hunt studies turbulence both theoretically and in the laboratory, and believes that the high wind speeds in a hurricane are not caused by sea spray. In an article he wrote for the Journal of Fluid Dynamics, Hunt suggests that variations in the turbulence between different regions of the hurricane cause sharp jumps in wind speed, which are responsible for the hurricane's strongest winds.
Oil reduces evaporation
Hurricanes are sustained by the heat liberated when water vapor that has evaporated from warm ocean waters condenses into rain. If one can reduce the amount of water evaporating from the ocean, a decrease in the hurricane's strength will result. Oil on the surface of the ocean will act to limit evaporation, and could potentially decrease the strength of a hurricane. However, if the oil is mixed away from the surface by the strong winds of a hurricane, the oil will have a very limited ability to reduce evaporation. According to a 2005 article in Popular Science magazine, Dr. Kerry Emanuel of MIT performed some tests in 2002 to see if oil on the surface of water could significantly reduce evaporation into a hurricane. He found that the slick quickly dissipated under high wind conditions that generated rough seas.
Figure 1. A comparison of the size of 2008's Hurricane Gustav with the size of the Gulf oil spill. The spill is only about 60 miles in diameter, while a hurricane like Gustav is typically 400+ miles in diameter.
Conclusion
A tropical cyclone in its formative stage--as either a tropical depression or a tropical storm with 40 mph winds--might be adversely affected if it encountered the Gulf of Mexico oil slick, due to the reduction of evaporation into the storm. However, a full-fledged hurricane would mix the oil into the ocean to such a degree that the storm would probably not see any significant reduction in evaporation. It remains unknown how the reduction of sea spray by oil might affect a hurricane. If the oil slick expands to a much larger size, there might be a significant reduction in strength of the hurricane, if theory of how a reduction of sea spray will decrease a hurricane's winds is correct. However, the oil slick is currently Delaware-sized, while a hurricane tends to be Texas-sized, and I doubt that the oil slick at its current size is large enough to have a significant impact on a hurricane's intensity. The slick is about 60 miles across, and it would take a hurricane about four hours to traverse the spill at a typical hurricane forward speed of 15 mph. Furthermore, the slick is within 50 miles land, and interactions with land will dominate the behavior of a hurricane that gets that close to the coast. Unfortunately, there is a decent chance that we'll get a real-world opportunity to see what will happen. June tropical storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico, and we've been averaging one June storm every two years since 1995. This year, the odds of a June Gulf of Mexico storm are probably a little lower than usual, shear from our lingering El Niño may bring wind shear levels a bit above average. I expect there is a 20% chance that we'll see a June tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico that would interact with the oil spill.
References
Barenblatt, G.I, A.J. Chorin, and V.M. Prostokishin, 2005, A note concerning the Lighthill sandwich model of tropical cyclones, PNAS August 9, 2005 vol. 102 no. 32 11148-11150 doi: 10.1073/pnas.0505209102.
Hunt, J.C.R, and I. Eames, 2006, Mechanics of inhomogeneous turbulence and interfacial layers,, Journal of Fluid Dynamics, vol. 554, pp. 499519 doi:10.1017/S002211200600944X.
Scott, J.C., 1986, "The Effect of Organic Films on Water Surface Motions," in Oceanic Whitecaps, edited by E. C. Monohan and G. Mac Niocaill, D. Reidel Publishing Company.
Scott, J.C., 1999, Ocean Surface Slicks - "Pollution, Productivity, Climate and Life-saving", IEEE Proceedings of the International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symp. IGARSS99, Hamburg, Germany, 28 June-2 July 1999, vol. 3, pp 1463-1468, 1999.
Wyckoff, A.B., 1886, The Use of Oil in Storms at Sea, American Philosophical Society, April 2, 1886.
http://www.archive.org/stream/proceedingsofamep23 amer/proceedingsofamep23amer_djvu.txt
First tropical wave of the season leaves the coast of Africa
Yesterday, the National Hurricane Center noted the first tropical wave of the year coming off the coast of Africa in their Tropical Weather Discussion. The first half of May is the typical time when the first tropical wave comes off the coast of Africa. The wave is currently positioned in the far eastern Atlantic near 5N 45W, and I don't expect it to develop, since it is too close to the Equator to leverage the Earth's spin to gain the rotation needed. The wave has quickly been joined by two new ones today, located at 15W and 36W off the African coast. Tropical waves serve as the seed that form most Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricanes.
Portlight delivers major aid shipment to Haiti
Portlight continues to focus its energy and funds on the situation in Haiti, where the rainy season is fast approaching the needs for shelter, medical supplies, food and water remain urgent. Their latest effort was a shipment of several thousand pounds of Durable Medical Equipment and 30,000 pounds of rice that arrived this week via the schooner Halie and Mathew.
Portlight.org is also preparing to respond the the Gulf Coast oil spill by deploying one of more mobile kitchens to feed the hundreds of volunteers likely to flood the coast when the oil finally comes ashore. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti and the Gulf Coast.
Figure 2. Relief supplies from the schooner Halie and Mathew sitting at the Portlight Haiti warehouse, ready for distribution.
Next Post
I'm on my way to Tucson today for the American Meteorological Society's 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, which will be held in Tucson next week. My next post will probably be on Monday night, when I plan to discuss the record SSTs observed last month in the tropical Atlantic. I'm excited to be catching up on and blogging about all the latest advancements in hurricane research!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Nice to see you back on the Blog.......Hope that You and Yours are doing well........ :)
Bad to worse if they can't shut the oil off.
Deepwater Horizon drilled on the Tiber oilfield the deepest oil and gas well ever drilled with a vertical depth of 35,050 feet (10,680 m) and measured depth of 35,055 feet (10,685 m), of which 4,132 feet (1,259 m) was water.
Take a lot of sand to "sand over" this...too much pressure.
The Gulf of Mexico will be "Gulf of Oil" if they can't get this shut off. Time is of essence before the weather starts to set in.
If a hurricane picks up the surface oil, there could be toxic black rain inland - depending on how much oil is on the water surface of course.
Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response
Deepwater Horizon Response
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DATE: May 10, 2010 12:03:59 CST
EPA Adminstrator to visit La. are
* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information:
(866)-448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system:
(281) 366-5511
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(800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife:
(866) 557-1401
Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center
Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240
WASHINGTON - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa P. Jackson will make another visit to the gulf region on Monday and Tuesday to oversee efforts to mitigate the environmental and human health impact of the ongoing BP oil spill.
The administrator will visit Baton Rouge, Robert and New Orleans, Louisiana seeking a thorough scientific assessment of the spills impact on the regions residents and environment. The administrator will meet with EPA response managers on the scene and review the agencys on-going air and water monitoring efforts. She will also meet with scientists from inside and outside the federal government, including scientists at local universities and from local organizations that have unique knowledge of the environmental challenges facing the gulf coast region and to discuss the potential impact of the use of dispersants on the spill on and below the surface of the water.
Administrator Jackson will also meet with BP officials, the Coast Guard and other federal agencies to discuss ongoing efforts to mitigate the impact of the spill.
MEDIA: To request an interview with Administrator Jackson, please email adora.andy@epa.gov
For more information on EPA's efforts in the gulf and for the latest air and water monitoring data, please go to: http://www.epa.gov/bpspill
MONDAY, May 10, 2010
12:00 p.m. CST Briefing by Louisiana State University Scientists
Baton Rouge, LA
CLOSED PRESS
5:00 p.m. CST Briefing with Federal Agency Scientists
Robert, LA
CLOSED PRESS
doing great
No. I have lost all respect for him, especially after last year.
some days are better than some but I'm here alive and reading for the season.
Awesome.....Do not know what your schedule will be like but I think we could really use your help, and analysis, around here in a few weeks.
Yeah. But the sand comes up with the fluids and eventually blocks the pipe, valves etc.
Servicing these wells to keep them from sanding up is a regular operation here (Trinidad). Patrap would know if the same applies there. I am not sure.
The ignore list doesn't work. People will quote the trolls, always been that way here.
I'll be free floating until June 1.
After June 1, I'll be available from 5am-7am and 7pm-until
and free floating on the weekends.
Just expect an outlook each morning with the ones on Sunday, extending 7 days.
This blog gets too wild during the day.
I will answer all emails and comments ASAP.
Thats a radar Image,..not a satellite photo
from CNN:
Next step to stop oil: Throw garbage at it
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/09/gulf.oil/index.html
They have got to be kidding...
lol....you'll see.
A shot in the dark.
BP has no way to control the well.
That went poof at the incident at depth April 20th.
And a CNN dude writing this in his cubicle from AP reports is a not the best rewrite of the operation.
Imagine dat?
LOL!! And, to inject ANYTHING into the pipe, they have to inject at some 15,000 psi (from reports) PLUS. Gonna be a hard one!
If they let those guys back in they should let Gator23 back in. But it aint gonna happen.
I will be here...dont get me wrong...
BP prepares second, smaller containment dome, and for "kill shot" on leaking oil well in Gulf of Mexico
By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
May 10, 2010, 9:28AM
BP is readying a second, smaller containment dome to lower over the main leak point on its Deepwater Horizon well to staunch the flow of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, the company announced Monday morning.
The company moved its four-story, 78-foot primary containment structure off the leak on Saturday after frozen crystals of natural gas called hydrates built up on and inside the structure, making it buoyant and threatening to clog the pipe that would have been used to pump captured oil to the surface.
The company also will attempt a "top kill" of the failed blowout preventer that sits atop the wellhead, pumping what BP officials have called "junk," pieces of ground up tire or golf balls, into the valve assembly under very high pressure.
Robotic remotely operated vehicles will remove a control mechanism from the blowout preventer and rework it, and then hoses may be inserted into existing lines on the device that could allow heavy drilling muds to be pumped down the well.
The method was used several times during the 1990-91 Gulf War in Iraq and Kuwait to kill flaming wells on the surface, but has not been tried at a mile-deep ocean location.
"All of the techniques being attempted or evaluated to contain the flow of oil on the seabed involve significant uncertainties because they have not been tested in these conditions before," said a company news release.
Meanwhile, the company reports that more than 275 vessels make up the fleet of skimmers, tugs, barges and recovery vessels attempting to collect and disperse oil now spread over a wide swath of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the Atchafalaya River in Louisiana.
More than 315,000 gallons of dispersants have been applied to the spill and 90,000 barrels of oil and water have been collected. Company officials have said the mixture contains about 10 percent oil.
BP said its response has cost about $350 million, including the cost of responding to the uncontrolled release of oil, its attempts to contain the oil that's been released, the drilling of a relief well, financial commitments to Gulf Coast states, financial settlements it already has entered, and the reimbursement of federal costs.
Right and that guy who kept impersonating a bunch of people. Gator23 knew what he was talking about however he got booted because one day he flipped out in the blog. I think he was hacked IMO
I wonder why they have not considered a new BOP? This would have to be built as a 'clam-shell' to go around the pipe and clamped on. Then the crimping system in the new BOP could be activated. Like the original one was supposed to do.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
GOODLAND KANSAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
FEW TORNADOES. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
I'm not even sure which one grabs my attention the most... From my experience, the precipitation anomalies most closely correspond with the breeding ground locations of storms while the pressure tendencies better determine the storm tracks. And both you and me happen to be in both! Lucky us...
84 degree waters entering the loop current from the Caribbean.
I do see a couple of spots with 68 and 70 degree waters in the central Gulf of Mexico south of LA in the deeper waters.
I don't think we're going to see any sanding here ... casing is in place.
by Matthew Daly / The Associated Press
wwltv.com
Posted on May 10, 2010 at 12:09 PM
WASHINGTON -- Oil services contractor Halliburton Inc. says it safely finished a cementing operation 20 hours before a Gulf of Mexico rig went up in flames.
In testimony prepared for a congressional hearing Tuesday, Halliburton says it completed work on the well according to accepted industry practice and federal regulators.
Halliburton executive Tim Probert says a pressure test was conducted after the work was finished, and the well owner decided to continue. A copy of the testimony was obtained by The Associated Press.
The cause of the April 20 explosion is under investigation, but lawsuits filed after the disaster claim it was caused when Halliburton workers improperly capped the well a process known as cementing. Halliburton denies wrongdoing.
(Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
OK
Oh no....the Euro has been absolutely stellar on this El Nino. Check this out....this was its forecast in November 2009:
The dashed line is what actually happened, and it's amazing how well the ECMWF actually picked out the peak and the turnaround, extremely well compared to all the other models. The CFS was forecasting an El Nino throughout the whole summer at this time. The only mistake the Euro has made was in underestimating how long the El Nino held on before really crashing, but overall a job very well done by the folks over there developing a model like this.
This looks very reasonable to me with central-neutral conditions occurring sometime in June.
Look at the central Pacific already:
WARNING: very large image
http://cyclops.marine.usf.edu/modis/level3/husf/mriver/2010/130/250m/pass/final/MODIS.2010130.16362 0.mriver.rgb.png
What do those graphs mean? What do they represent?
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