93L near tropical depression strength
The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.
Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.
Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.
A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.
Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.
Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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As far as insurance goes, I'm sure we all know the horror stories despite what some are saying. But I think the worst thing I heard last night is that you can't renew your flood policy right now if you didn't do it by May 30.
My home owners policy has always had a clause about not paying for chemicals, pollution, something lik that.So I guess that would include damage from oil. :(
They are closing in on 93L now, just east of the Yucatan. They should be reporting us before 2 p.m.
Tropical Tidbit for Friday, June 25th, with Video
May not be running the newer 12z version. It's always been with 5-10 minutes of the original one. I've been checking too.
By the way, the original GFS kind of loses 93L over the south central GOM after crossing the Yucatan.
The moisture gets pulled toward the northern GOM coast.
I just hope 93L does not push oil on to your beanches or anyone else's. I am routing for a Mexico or Texas hit (even thou I live in Texas) because I do not want a oil-tar cane. That would be horrible.
IT ALSO IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A TD.
Actually looks pretty stationary to me right now and the steering currents are almost weak/non-existant around it at the moment per the latest CIMSS charts if I am reading them correctly....But I can't commit to a due North movement at this time...... :)
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Your inability to follow simple Blog rules probably indirectly has something to do with the fact you're having a tough time finding somebody to marry you! This is a Tropical Weather Blog, stay on topic or YOU WILL BE BANNED!
If you don't give the what then the statement is meaningless.
My point is that ALL news outlets are sloppy reporting the weather. This needs to change. How can we properly educate the public about safety and tropical storm preparedness with this kind of sloppy and inaccurate journalism?
Oh my.
Wrong outlet.
Try Facebook or MySpace.
Floater - Visible Loop
Perhaps Recon will help you locate the Capslock button as well as a vortex.
Here are my the colors of my almae matres, you'll never guess them. LOL
You will never see these colors in a Hurricane.
686
WHXX01 KWBC 251454
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1454 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100625 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100625 1200 100626 0000 100626 1200 100627 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 57.8W 19.6N 60.2W 21.1N 62.0W 22.6N 63.2W
BAMD 17.8N 57.8W 19.7N 58.7W 21.7N 59.5W 23.6N 60.5W
BAMM 17.8N 57.8W 19.3N 59.5W 20.9N 60.9W 22.5N 62.0W
LBAR 17.8N 57.8W 19.5N 59.1W 21.0N 60.3W 22.3N 61.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100627 1200 100628 1200 100629 1200 100630 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.9N 64.4W 26.5N 65.6W 29.3N 65.5W 32.7N 63.9W
BAMD 25.1N 61.6W 28.1N 62.8W 31.0N 62.8W 33.4N 60.5W
BAMM 23.9N 63.1W 26.7N 64.7W 29.7N 64.9W 32.8N 63.0W
LBAR 23.5N 62.0W 25.4N 62.9W 27.0N 63.0W 28.3N 64.3W
SHIP 47KTS 55KTS 55KTS 49KTS
DSHP 47KTS 55KTS 55KTS 49KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 57.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 56.0W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 53.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
look at the windscat or ascat path last night, the thing was due east of nicaragua/honduras, now it's well to the NE, its moving NNW right now, slowly.
Depends on whether it gets pushed west by the ridge building over the CONUS or lifted northwards by the trough. It could even stall near Mexico, loop counterclockwise then head northeast toward Louisiana.
Perversely, I just watched the ROV cam on one of the Q4000's ROV's as it was being lowered into the water. I got a good look of the HUGE flame of oil and gas being flared off by Q4000.
But when it went below the surface, there was not a hint of an oil slick at that spot, and there was a school of large and apparently healthy Tuna swimming around the area and in front of the ROV camera.
Crazy! The ecosystem seems to be doing better at the surface of ground zero than at the beaches hundreds of miles away.
Teach Weather and Disaster/Emergency Preparation in the schools as early as First Grade.
It will help a whole generation.
Make sure the radar, weather stations and satellite boxes are checked.
Yeah it probably is one. They will wait for recon to confirm before issuing advisories.
I find 94L much more interesting (and thankfully much less of a threat to the GOMEX).
I'm really biting my tongue and trying to protect the integrity of this blog to keep it about the Tropics.
I 100% disagree about FNC but this isn't the place for that conversation. I'm not out to spam, but if you want to tell me about it please contact me through my political web site at Super Had Enough and then we can protect the focus of the forum.
thanks, looks to me the system is drifting WNW
I agree Pat and am very appreciative of the work you do providing informative links on this site. Thanks and keep up the good work!
Your take on 93L?
I bet lots of 'em at FOX NEWS could say that Rachael Maddow is a Rhodes Scholar.
ECMWF, GFDL, HWRF, and CMC have all predicted in the past that 93L would become a major Hurricane. Not the case today though.
Ask Bugs Bunny.
Anyway, things are looking very good moisture and shear-wise for the further development of 93L:
Im not a met so I mostly observe....
93L has potential but has to move and Navigate to the GOM ..and most Guidance takes it there in some form.
So review ones plan and stock up now to avoid any rush next week.
there is no way it has been moving WNW, if it has been moving WNW, it would have been on the coast right now.. and certainly less than 100 miles away from the NICA/HONDURA border. The thing has been moving NW/NNW
Woops, wrong image bet you still will never guess, atmo:
Rhodes Scholar means that they never left their college dorm room and never had a cold one.
Path will be W to WNW tonight and NW by Saturday. Models in the short term might be too slow on moving this into NE Belieze or the Yucitan.. by Saturday morning if they find this a TD in the next few hours.. we will have a TS.
Future path remains uncertain as the more W it goes before reaching land.. the more decoupling will happen on Sunday. GFS says a decoupling will happen which I said might happen a few days ago after the Yucitan. Leaving the LLC NW off the Yucitan with drier air..while a midlevel center moves NE offshore Clearwater by Tuesday morning. Or if 93L gets stronger quicker and moves inland closer to Cozumel-Cancun..it wont lose much intensity and get pulled more N and could be a stronger TS in the GOM threatening Mobile-Cedar Key. Does this have a chance to be a Hurricane? Well its too early to tell. My first though is on decoupling Sunday. The trough is strong and will stall over the N GOM during the week sending impulses and weak lows (non tropical) ENE across florida. There is a slight chance that if this does decouple, a new LLC will form before making landfall on Tuesday. Or again, if it takes a more early NNW path near Cancun..it may hold together in the GOM. Time will tell along with movement.
Recon coordinates as of 16:25:00Z: 22.800N 86.667W
Viewing: 501 - 551
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