Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting btwntx08:

what gfdl the lastest one kills it in 12 hrs lol

i think it safe too say we can drop that one

Quoting kmanislander:
96L organizing. Just saw a 43 mph wind gust here. Winds fluctuating between 30 and 38 mph.

Those observations in the Caymans is likely what drove these numbers in the 18z coordinates.

AL, 96, 2010070418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 835W, 30, 1009, DB,

Quoting weather42009:
456 read your outlook, and by the looks of the tropics I guess you will be right again.

If we have anything less than 2 named storms this month then I will be surprise.

Quoting kmanislander:
96L organizing. Just saw a 43 mph wind gust here. Winds fluctuating between 30 and 38 mph.

and fast we may have a TS by this time monday

Pat, is there any plan in place to help out should this system make a track towards Texas?

The tropics are unpredictable, I didn't even know we had 96L until now.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Really nasty thunderstorms overhead here in Brickell.

Did you have nasty storms last night. We kept losing power.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
However the CHS wx discussion does say how unusual the dry trough is----have never seen a statement quite like this:

THE 12Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS...FEATURING
PWATS ONLY AROUND 1/2 INCH AND A K INDEX OF -25...A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 115F. EXCEPT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE TODAY.

Sounds like the air mass that was over North Central TX in Mid June. Very dry & it has to shoot up to 115F to trigger convection, and a PWAT of 0.50". At least it is a dry heat.

PS. Our PWAT yesterday was about 2.52" a near-record for North TX and we have had 4.70" of rain in 5 days. Hang tough, the pattern will change again in several days.

I never thought 95L would amount to much but it is hanging in there. Being tight & compact now I wonder it has finally made the warm-core transition. Enough time to become a TD before landfall?

96L in Western Carribean & another wave entering the Eastern Carribean. What, potential development East of FL? I guess this can be called the 4th of Carribean July.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'm breaking off---bbq to set up and fireworks to see later. Be out till at least 11 pm--I wonder what 96L will look like when I get back. Y'all have a good 4th!

We have natural fireworks going off at the moment.

Sheesh and that wave near the Antilles looks like it could develop at anytime as well.

Quoting Dakster:


Did you have nasty storms last night. We kept losing power.

Yup. Luckily I live in an apartment building and we have like 1000 back-up generators.

Quoting GainesvilleGator:
I never thought 95L would amount to much but it is hanging in there. Being tight & compact now I wonder it has finally made the warm-core transition. Enough time to become a TD before landfall?

96L in Western Carribean & another wave entering the Eastern Carribean. What, potential development East of FL? I guess this can be called the 4th of Carribean July.

95L is gone RIP the dry air has kill it

We may drive down to Grand Isle in the Morning for the 95L Landfall and for a sack of oysters.

Are we now in upward motion? MJO

The wave east of the Antilles may give us much more to watch...just got to wait and see.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Those observations in the Caymans is likely what drove these numbers in the 18z coordinates.

AL, 96, 2010070418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 835W, 30, 1009, DB,

The wind is howling outside. Not much rain at the moment, just a drizzle, but very stormy otherwise.

Quoting Weather456:
The wave east of the Antilles may give us much more to watch...just got to wait and see.

That has me concerned. It is probably the most amplified and vigorous wave we have seen approach the islands yet this year.

What do you guys say, 50% for 96L coming up?

A healthy Dvorak..

i smell red comeing at 8pm

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. Luckily I live in an apartment building and we have like 1000 back-up generators.

I have a backup generator too.. Thankfully I didn't need it, but the power flicking on and off was annoying and kept waking me up.

Looks like we will have our typical 4th of July - rain and thunderstorms.

And everyone was wondering when the tropics would pop. How interesting that it comes on the Fourth of July.

Hey everyone, happy 4th. Like I said id check in if there's any potential for tropical development and there sure is. What does everyone think of the wave off Africa? It's holding up pretty well so far.

Quoting MrstormX:
What do you guys say, 50% for 96L coming up?

good but the way 96L is going i think we may see %60 or may be even %70

Quoting Dakster:


I have a backup generator too.. Thankfully I didn't need it, but the power flicking on and off was annoying and kept waking me up.

Looks like we will have our typical 4th of July - rain and thunderstorms.

Outside right now:

Quoting kmanislander:


The wind is howling outside. Not much rain at the moment, just a drizzle, but very stormy otherwise.

Stay safe.

Link
WOW Click on the link for real time info latest wind gust in the last hour at Owen Roberts Airport 49.5mph.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
However the CHS wx discussion does say how unusual the dry trough is----have never seen a statement quite like this:

THE 12Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS...FEATURING
PWATS ONLY AROUND 1/2 INCH AND A K INDEX OF -25...A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 115F. EXCEPT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE TODAY.

our PW has been between 2.2 and 2.7 for a week now! and in the past week, we have now picked up a little over 9 inches of rain! I picked up 1.75 yesterday and 2.03 this morning, I love this weather honestly!

Beats mid to upper 90's for highs and only 4.23 inches for June! Most of it fell in the last few days of June too. June was horribly dry and hot, but not a dry heat, an extremely humid heat.

Quoting Patrap:
A healthy Dvorak..

Would Dovark present the same way for a warm core and a cold core disturbance?

Taz, do you just read the other blog comments or do you actually look at the NHC satellite frames? 95L looks like it is improving & not going away.

Code orange on 96L!



It bugs me that we have a floater on 95L but not 96L. I e-mailed the SSD earlier.

Guys I still think that the real COC is well East of the BEST track plots and also stormpetrol the way I am looking at it you are off by a bit I am seeing it at 16.5N/17N 79.5/80W BTW did you recive my mail Stormpetrol

Just a quick safety note. For those with a backup generator, don't relax on supplies that you may need. Have seen wind events take out the generator also.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
WOW Click on the link for real time info latest wind gust in the last hour at Owen Roberts Airport 49.5mph.

yep. Just had 43 mph at my home.

Quoting muddertracker:
Would Dovark present the same way for a warm core and a cold core disturbance?

In the Convective Rings ,,the Symmetry can present the same I think.

Quoting kmanislander:


yep. Just had 43 mph at my home.

IMpressive Kman..

..your East of her right?

See new bloggers, THIS is what happens when the Doc takes a vacation.

GOES-E Satellite loop of Caribbean
Link

Savannah, Grand Cayman.

Quoting cg2916:
Code orange on 96L!



It bugs me that we have a floater on 95L bu not 96L. I e-mailed the SSD earlier.

Its in works.

The commands take a while to work thru the cue.

Quoting cg2916:
Code orange on 96L!



It bugs me that we have a floater on 95L bu not 96L. I e-mailed the SSD earlier.

what is the floater? What does that mean?

Quoting Levi32:


That has me concerned. It is probably the most amplified and vigorous wave we have seen approach the islands yet this year.

Yea Levi....we are going to get some showers from this one!

But it has favorable conditions ahead so it needs to be watch.

They are taking off one behind the other.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
WOW Click on the link for real time info latest wind gust in the last hour at Owen Roberts Airport 49.5mph.

Wow good find mate

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Guys I still think that the real COC is well East of the BEST track plots and also stormpetrol the way I am looking at it you are off by a bit I am seeing it at 16.5N/17N 79.5/80W BTW did you recive my mail Stormpetrol

Yep Got it Bro, Thanks looks we're in for a long 2 days or so. Weather up this side is very stormy!!

Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Taz, do you just read the other blog comments or do you actually look at the NHC satellite frames? 95L looks like it is improving & not going away.

95L is a non Tropic low

Convection is consolidating nicely with 96L, and towards the east with time, which is bad news for the north gulf coast if the center tends to stay to the northeast with the convection and head more towards the northeast tip of the Yucatan or even the Yucatan channel.