Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2101. Cavin Rawlins 12:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting hydrus: Arent we already in an upward phase? We are. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2102. bappit 12:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: Alex was blocked by a mid level ridge, not upper...and regardless of what the NHC has, it's not a wave...it's the same monsoonal, Typhoon type development. So the first point sounds like a semantic issue. The second one is more interesting. What is supplying the vorticity for 96L? It seems a lot different from Alex in that respect. With Alex it took a long time for vorticity to develop. This one seems to have it ready made--as by a wave moving through the area. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4385

2103. leo305 12:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Weather456: The steering set up is different from Alex. The storm should be heading NW over the next 3-4 days, placing it north of Alex forecast points. It should curve back more to the west at the end of the forecast cycle due to ridging to the north but how far north it would of gotten by then? We have to look not at the strength of the ridge this time around but its location which is parked and along the E USA, much further east than the ridge that steered Alex back west which was over the Central CONUS. Its gonna be a close call for SE Texas. I don't think its ever wise to say a storm is going somewhere like "SE TEXAS" when it's yet to even have a center, and its so early in the game.. Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

2104. Patrap 12:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

2105. pottery 12:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting hydrus: Arent we already in an upward phase? I been in an upward phase all day long. Does that count? Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

2106. KMcMullin 12:03 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
This must be what an MJO pulse looks like...four invests. Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1

2107. nash28 12:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
456 is right on. Not the strength of the ridge but the orientation of the ridge. Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

2108. muddertracker 12:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Colin? Really? They soooo should have gone with Clyde. Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2126

2109. will45 12:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Weather456: The steering set up is different from Alex. The storm should be heading NW over the next 3-4 days, placing it north of Alex forecast points. It should curve back more to the west at the end of the forecast cycle due to ridging to the north but how far north it would of gotten by then? We have to look not at the strength of the ridge this time around but its location which is parked and along the E USA, much further east than the ridge that steered Alex back west which was over the Central CONUS. Its gonna be a close call for SE Texas. blockquote> If it stalls like Alex that may change things. Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994

2110. NCHurricane2009 12:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
When I hit the refresh screen on the NHC outlook page, I was like, ooooooooooooooh myyyyyyyyyy gossssssssssssssh!!!!! Two MORE areas of interest. Now we have four. This is unbelievable for early July. I'll be posting synoptic histories of each area of interest later tonight so you can see how this happened. Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

2111. Tazmanian 12:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: MJO in our basin and reluctant to leave because the Atlantic is where all the activity is. oh my Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2112. Patrap 12:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting leo305: I don't think its ever wise to say a storm is going somewhere like "SE TEXAS" when it's yet to even have a center, and its so early in the game.. U betcha sweet bippy. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

2113. SiestaCpl 12:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Weather456: The steering set up is different from Alex. The storm should be heading NW over the next 3-4 days, placing it north of Alex forecast points. It should curve back more to the west at the end of the forecast cycle due to ridging to the north but how far north it would of gotten by then? We have to look not at the strength of the ridge this time around but its location which is parked and along the E USA, much further east than the ridge that steered Alex back west which was over the Central CONUS. Its gonna be a close call for SE Texas. excellent clarification as per usual... Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

2115. MiamiHurricanes09 12:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: 96L and the Caribbean wave (97L soon to be) have the best shot of becoming Bonnie and Colin. I'm not discounting the trough split over the Bahamas by any means. I think that she has a good chance of becoming Danielle. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2116. Cavin Rawlins 12:04 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
From my July outlook, we should spend 1 week with the absence of the MJO. That leaves us pretty much with the majority of July in upward motion. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2117. TampaSpin 12:05 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
HUSTON WE GOT A PROBLEM Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2118. RitaEvac 12:05 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Ok, gonna have to leave out the map where the shutters go on the house for my father in case this freaking 96L is coming my way. Last time I was in Vegas they Gustav coming to SE TX turned out to be false alarm, go back 2 years later and like deja vu all over again

2119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:05 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
WELL the key is to go slow keep the info moving maintain blog to be as informative as possible Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

2120. bappit 12:05 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TexasGulf: We got a lot of good rain out of Alex. Nice, slow steady soaking rains that we really needed. Say what? Lucky you weren't in Brazoria or Fort Bend. Hobby and IAH set daily rainfall records, too. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4385

2121. wunderkidcayman 12:06 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
WHAT THE HELL THREE YELLOW AND ONE ORANGE WE ALL MUSH HAVE SLEEPING ON 95L AND 96l WOW 000 ABNT20 KNHC 042344 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5455

2122. Greyelf 12:06 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
WABC reporting the bomb scare at JFK was a false alarm. "The evacuation happened after an anonymous phone caller said there was a bomb at the airport, and at the same time someone else reported an unattended bag." Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838

2123. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:06 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: can someone post the two graphic? Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

2124. Hardcoreweather2010 12:07 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

2125. Tazmanian 12:07 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
i was thinking the same thing i was not even forcasting 4 Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2126. Patrap 12:07 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
..ooofh Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

2127. tropicfreak 12:07 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: 96L and the Caribbean wave (97L soon to be) have the best shot of becoming Bonnie and Colin. I think the NHC will upgrade the antillies wave up to orange. Hope they are prepared and have the orange,yellow, and even red on hand. Plenty. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2128. Cavin Rawlins 12:07 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting leo305: I don't think its ever wise to say a storm is going somewhere like "SE TEXAS" when it's yet to even have a center, and its so early in the game.. it is wise enough. 96L has no close center yet its been heading WNW-NW. I've projected paths without close centers all the time, most recently, Alex. It's not as accurate but it can be done. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2130. sarahjola 12:07 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
is 96l really going to go the same exact route as alex? thats a little hard to believe. could the models be picking up on alex still or just stuck on that route, or is there some steering reason they are figuring same route. its the same exact route as alex. its just strange to me.:) Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

2131. SiestaCpl 12:09 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Weather456: From my July outlook, we should spend 1 week with the absence of the MJO. That leaves us pretty much with the majority of July in upward motion. ...up MJO..means bad Mojo for us...unless you like wading.... Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

2132. TexasHurricane 12:09 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: ..ooofh Looking like it could be another "BIG" storm.... Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

2133. tropicaltank 12:09 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
So we expect a more northerly course.Any thoughts on intensity? Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 242

2134. Cavin Rawlins 12:10 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
We also have to look at analogies of twin tropical cyclones in such a short temporal scale. One always seem to head north or south of its predecessor. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2135. msgambler 12:10 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting RitaEvac: Ok, gonna have to leave out the map where the shutters go on the house for my father in case this freaking 96L is coming my way. Last time I was in Vegas they Gustav coming to SE TX turned out to be false alarm, go back 2 years later and like deja vu all over again Good evening Rita and everybody. Do like I do Rita and let the Ins. Co. figure out where the new windows go....LOL Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

2138. Patrap 12:11 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Anyone giving out a landfall Geographic prediction on 96L is more likely ego driven than anything else. Its not a wise route to say where this Invest 96L will wind up as of this evening,,as that depends alot on intensity as much as the ridge. Without a doubt. 18Z 96L Run Rib anyone,..mmmmm ? Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

2139. TexasHurricane 12:12 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: Exactly! You thinking this too? Ughhh, I am in SE TX.... Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

2140. tropicfreak 12:13 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: we are up to 5 TWO graphs now 5?? Whats the 5th one. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2141. GetReal 12:13 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
IMO I would not right off 95L just yet... This is a very small system, that is structurally well put together. Being a very small system, it would not take much for 95L to quickly wrap any convection around the COC, and quickly becoming a TD, or even minimal TS.... I know the chances of this occurring are slim, but it is definitely possible with this type system. All 95L needs is one good dmax! Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8196

2142. CybrTeddy 12:13 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
ackk..pff.. Dusty. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

2143. tropicaltank 12:14 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Anyone giving out a landfall Geographic prediction on 96L is more likely ego driven than anything else. Its not a wise route to say where this Invest 96L will wind up as of this evening,,as that depends alot on intensity as much as the ridge. Without a doubt. I concur. Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 242

2144. Hurricanes101 12:14 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
95L is dying tonight, face it, it is done Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2145. Patrap 12:14 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
96L JSL Image Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

2146. Kristina40 12:14 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Anyone giving out a landfall Geographic prediction on 96L is more likely ego driven than anything else. Its not a wise route to say where this Invest 96L will wind up as of this evening,,as that depends alot on intensity as much as the ridge. Without a doubt. Rib anyone,..mmmmm ? Good point. We did all our grilling yesterday for husbands Bday and to accommodate the rain schedule. All the ribs are already gone but I do still have T Bones left over and corn on the cob. It's been raining all afternoon even thought the sun has been out most of the time...Weird. Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

2147. Cavin Rawlins 12:14 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
We may become so active this year, we gonna have to divide up into teams, lol. You guys take that two and we take that 3, lol Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2148. RitaEvac 12:14 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
You know if you fail to cover your windows for a storm and they blow out or debris flys into them, the insurance companies wont pay for everything if they see that you failed to take proper precautions to shutter the windows up. I see people doing that all the time here.

2149. Dakster 12:14 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: we are up to 5 TWO graphs now ???? I only see 4... Unless I am missing something. Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

2150. Fl30258713 12:14 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: That's exciting. Like fire works on the 4th of July. Happy Birthday America. Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

2151. medicroc 12:15 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting tropicfreak: 5?? Whats the 5th one. Interested in knowing also Member Since: September 14, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 452

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