Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

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2901. kmanislander 3:27 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Kman...your arguing with one of the Blog kids...you know where this is heading....LOL Ah well. What can I say. No argument really, the facts are clear. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2903. xcool 3:28 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
no dry air Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

2904. MiamiHurricanes09 3:29 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Good night all. Gonna be a long day tomorrow with recon going in to investigate 96L. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2905. Patrap 3:29 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Ah well. What can I say. No argument really, the facts are clear. I find for the Kman counselor. Case Dismissed. Lets go to da Bar. Im buying. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2906. bassis 3:29 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Q: What chance was Alex given by the NHC Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 422

2907. pottery 3:29 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MarineMeteorologist: The ufo lifted the bouy up into the air and its floating up about 200ft above the sea..... heheheh See you all tomorrow, sometime. Keep an eye on stuff, will you? Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20718

2908. msgambler 3:30 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: I find for the Kman counselor. Case Dismissed. Lets go to da Bar. Im buying. If your buying, I'll have a double Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

2909. hercj 3:30 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: I find for the Kman counselor. Case Dismissed. Lets go to da Bar. Im buying. Pat you are truly one of a kind. LMAO Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

2910. bohonkweatherman 3:30 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
At first not much Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

2911. centex 3:30 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting xcool: no dry air unless your soon to be X 95L Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

2912. Patrap 3:31 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Climo is creepy sometimes Sheesh. Current 2005 tomorrow night Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2913. Patrap 3:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting hercj: Pat you are truly one of a kind. LMAO U betcha.. V2,, Rotate, wheels up.. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2914. kmanislander 3:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: I find for the Kman counselor. Case Dismissed. Lets go to da Bar. Im buying. Nice !. Well, I don't think the mystery of 96L will be resolved tonight so I am turning in myself. I hope I don't wake up to find that it has reformed overhead. This is stacking up to be a crazy year. Good night all. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2915. Patrap 3:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Nice !. Well, I don't think the mystery of 96L will be resolved tonight so I am turning in myself. I hope I don't wake up to find that it has reformed overhead. This is stacking up to be a crazy year. Good night all. nitey Kman. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2916. msgambler 3:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Night kman Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

2917. xcool 3:33 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
huhhhhhhhhhh Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

2918. DauphinNotDolphin 3:33 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
0z CMC Regional (global not out yet) has 96L south of the SE LA coast in 48 hours.

2919. aspectre 3:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
kmanislander "Very odd. Nothing showing on the satellite that would indicate something going on there". 2872 stormwatcherCI "I know. This buoy is further N and W than 96L. Weird." Okay, what am I missing here? A hurricane can have multiple cyclones embedded within the eyewall, hot towers. So why can't a large invest have multiple lows? Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

2920. TxMarc71 3:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Woah... what the heck happened to lil ol 95l?? It seems to have gone poof and vanished!

2921. Patrap 3:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting DauphinNotDolphin: 0z CMC Regional (global not out yet) has 96L south of the SE LA coast in 48 hours. U posted the earlier run I remember as well. A Lil consistency there I may say. thanx Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2922. mrsalagranny 3:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting DauphinNotDolphin: 0z CMC Regional (global not out yet) has 96L south of the SE LA coast in 48 hours. Good evening Msgambler and everyone.What is going on with 96l tonight? Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 732

2923. RuBRNded 3:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: U betcha.. V2,, Rotate, wheels up.. V2 was a rocket, no wheels, lol Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

2924. txsweetpea 3:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting xcool: huhhhhhhhhhh Seriously asking what does that mean? Member Since: June 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546

2925. BahaHurican 3:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MarineMeteorologist: someone has to go out there and hit the thing with a hammer! Is that like kicking the soda machine? lol Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17683

2926. msgambler 3:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting mrsalagranny: Good evening Msgambler and everyone.What is going on with 96l tonight? Evening granny. It's going to MX/TX, or so everyone seems to think. Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

2927. sarahjola 3:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting AlexEmmett: dont you have better things todo like hide in a shower curtain, we all hate u, u drive this blog to the breaking point why dont you just go away i don't know you but i don't hate you. children please! i have to listen to my 4yr, old and 8 yr. old fight all day. do you really need to have childish arguments on this blog. its tropical weather blog! lets stick to it, please:) thanks in advance Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

2928. TampaSpin 3:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting xcool: huhhhhhhhhhh LOOKS pretty dam closed to me...NICE XCool....nice job. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2929. Patrap 3:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting RuBRNded: V2 was a rocket, no wheels, lol V1,,then V2 is what a Pilot uses for The Airspeed to Rotate the Stick back. Maybe ya wanna google "aviation,V1 V2" Or spend a few years in th USMC Air Wing. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2930. hercj 3:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting RuBRNded: V2 was a rocket, no wheels, lol Aerodynamic formula for reaching rotation speed of an aircraft on takeoff run. In other words Wheels up. Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

2931. CosmicEvents 3:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Goodnight KMan. Patrap....it looks like it's raining and blowing pretty good in NOLA. What's your current conditions? Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099

2932. mrsalagranny 3:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Not good for them.Earlier someone posted something about a ULL forming over Texas;Is this something that change the track more Northerly? Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 732

2933. medicroc 3:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting xcool: huhhhhhhhhhh Thanks for the post Member Since: September 14, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 452

2934. Patrap 3:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents: Goodnight KMan. Patrap....it looks like it's raining and blowing pretty good in NOLA. What's your current conditions? Just put 70115 in the Box up in the corner of this wu page Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2935. RuBRNded 3:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: V1,,then V2 is what a Pilot uses for The Airspeed to Rotate the Stick back. Maybe ya wanna google "aviation,V1 V2" Or spend a few years in th USMC Air Wing. No ty, i was smart enough to get into the Army recon, tyvm, lol Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

2936. RitaEvac 3:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
quit worrying about that 95L Pat, Bonnie maybe coming to visit you next week

2937. xcool 3:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
TampaSpin thanks yeah to me medicroc thanks. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

2939. wunderkidcayman 3:41 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
quite right MH09 when the HH flies into 96L we will have a better idea on what is going on maybe when D-MAX kick in thing will look better and hopfully the surface Obs gan get a grip Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5512

2941. Patrap 3:42 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting RuBRNded: No ty, i was smart enough to get into the Army recon, tyvm, lol some cant make the Few,and the proud cut. I understand. Thanks for your service. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2943. msgambler 3:43 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: V1,,then V2 is what a Pilot uses for The Airspeed to Rotate the Stick back. Maybe ya wanna google "aviation,V1 V2" Or spend a few years in th USMC Air Wing. USMC...dang I though you were a USAF kinda guy. Ohh well, I guess we can't get all the smart ones...LOL Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

2944. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:43 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TxMarc71: Woah... what the heck happened to lil ol 95l?? It seems to have gone poof and vanished! stealth mode 95L and AOI over sw atlantic Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40658

2945. Patrap 3:43 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2946. centex 3:43 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting aspectre: kmanislander "Very odd. Nothing showing on the satellite that would indicate something going on there". 2872 stormwatcherCI "I know. This buoy is further N and W than 96L. Weird." Okay, what am I missing here? A hurricane can have multiple cyclones embedded within the eyewall, hot towers. So why can't a large invest have multiple lows? Need I say more? Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

2947. RuBRNded 3:43 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: some cant make the Few,and the proud cut. I understand. Thanks for your service. lol, i have brothers that are squids and jarheads in my family, its always interesting when we get together Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

2948. TxMarc71 3:43 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
what the heck happened to lil ol 95l??

2949. Orcasystems 3:44 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: some cant make the Few,and the proud cut. I understand. Thanks for your service. How many years did you have Pat. and what MOC Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

2950. DehSoBe 3:44 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Hi. Are there any model runs on the wave approaching the Lesser Ant.? Where is south Florida in those runs? Member Since: June 14, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 34

2951. Patrap 3:45 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Jar head Invest July 1980 Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

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