Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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4301. rareaire 8:27 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
TampaSpin, thats it no soup for you! Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1598

4302. aquak9 8:27 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Whew (wipes brow) at least I know I'm safe here in Jacksonville Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

4304. TampaSpin 8:27 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: I think Tampa and Miami go furst. But thats just me. If Tampa was to ever get hit with a Major Cane......i don't really think most that live i Tampa would know WATER wise what hit them.......the entire City of Tampa would be nearly destroyed! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4305. tropicfreak 8:28 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting txwxnut2: That is where i said the CoC was most likely at...until a 13yo...thought he knew better.....LOL....JUST SAYIN! 13yo? LMAO!!!! (if you are talking about me...I'm 38!!! Irregardless - I was looking there after you pointed it out, and can somewhat see something trying to form there, but it is not a coc...yet, but with the burst of convection, it may materialize. I can't see jack in the channel where the models are initializing. There was (past tense) an eddy around 17, but it got shread pretty good the last couple of hours. Well looks like the teens are starting to take over. (I'm 14) Baltimore birds is 13. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

4306. xcool 8:28 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
TAMPSPIN Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

4307. midgulfmom 8:29 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Interested to see the models once a coc is fixed. Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

4308. wunderkidcayman 8:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
yes my good Friend MH09 but that is the old one 96L has multiple COC like Alex had when it was in the beginning stages but if you look closely on the sat the convection is moving south with convection expanding to the north it makes it look like it is moving north to the old COC near the yucatan channel and yes it could be one of the two that you listed as well but I am more falling on the side of a fairly new COC being there weak but that that weak and slowly growing Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5449

4309. winter123 8:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Model spread for 96L? Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

4311. Progster 8:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: 4240. OK it's a warm core Low attached to a stationary front. Hopefully this moves inland quick, before it sheds the stationary front & creates major problems. You can't have a low attached to a stationary front. Air circulates around lows therefore an attached front moves...i.e. is not stationary. 95L hasn't been on a front for a few days. There isnt a feature anywhere near it that matches the description of a real front. Mets use the term "front" very loosely. In this case NWS mets have been using the term to describe a boundary between higher dewpoints and lower one, - mainly aloft, actually - and perhaps some elongated troughing along the NE GOMEX that has since diappeared. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 412

4314. TankHead93 8:31 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: If Tampa was to ever get hit with a Major Cane......i don't really think most that live i Tampa would know WATER wise what hit them.......the entire City of Tampa would be nearly destroyed! Good thing my family and I are located in a place in Pinellas County that doesn't flood and isn't in a surge zone. Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203

4315. TampaSpin 8:31 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting rareaire: TampaSpin, thats it no soup for you! LOL.....i wonder if my mommy would still fix me some......YEP i know she would! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4316. winter123 8:31 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting winter123: Model spread for 96L? NVM got it. I thought the COC (weak now but thats obviously where its trying to form based on convection and outflow) was in the carribean though?? Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

4317. homelesswanderer 8:31 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting angiest: If Ike had followed the forecast track a 20-30 foot surge would have gone up the Houston Ship Channel instead of just off to the north and east as happened. Not to mention putting the core of Houston in the eastern eyewall. And yet much of Houston was a tremendous mess for some weeks after getting hit by the "weak" side of the storm. Yes Houston dodged two gigantic bullets in Rita and Ike. Living to the east I can say they both sucked! And I was on the "wesk" side of Rita. I never want to see a major take Houston head on. Especially since they say they won't evac anymore. It would be bad. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

4318. aquak9 8:31 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
best line from the video, SSI: "it's enough to make ya wanna chew your own foot off" yep, that's quotable Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

4319. stormwatcherCI 8:31 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: ?He edited it already to 96L. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

4321. Patrap 8:32 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting USSINS: I'm not certain "Katrina" and "weakening" belong in the same sentence together. Hardly anything about it was weak except those that underestimated its fury. The SSS landfalling scale of a Cat 3 was hardly descriptive of its massive catastrophic power. I was inland, about 150 miles away and had sustained CAT 3 winds. It exited the nEast portion of the state still a Cat 1. Whatever describes the "top" of or the "worst" of the scale - that's what Katrina was, a 5 or whatever one wants to call it, but it simply was not just a Cat 3 - that's for certain. I always find that amusing,..if one can ..in a fractured way. Shakes head..sips slowly. 30 ft Storm Surge.. Some Cat 3. Like P surge,17ft Yup. ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh......... Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111578

4322. midgulfmom 8:32 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting LADobeLady: The first rains of 95L are here, no grass cutting again today. Hi where are you? Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

4323. KingofNewOrleans 8:33 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
I doubt 95L is a TD, but at least it's got spin, something that's hard to demonstrate with 96L Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 103

4324. floridafisherman 8:33 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
pouring out here in lehigh acres fla, just east of ft myers. we have a areal flood warning and theres already flooding all over here. mostly just streets but the rain doesnt look like its going to stop soon and the flooding will get worse Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 514

4325. KingofNewOrleans 8:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting whs2012: When should he have a COC? Maybe 96L will twitter and tell us. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 103

4326. TampaSpin 8:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting TankHead93: Good thing my family and I are located in a place in Pinellas County that doesn't flood and isn't in a surge zone. Just don't bet on those Maps being 100% accurate in a Cat 4 or 5. I would error on caution. In 2004 i remember areas that flooded that was not expected and it was nothing. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4327. xcool 8:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
given the now limited time 96L Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

4328. hydrus 8:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting tropicfreak: Well looks like the teens are starting to take over. (I'm 14) Baltimore birds is 13. You youngins are computer wizards. I can remember when computers were few, and mostly belonged to the government or the banks. On board the ship I worked on, in the early 1980,s they had a huge clunky thing called a Satellite Navigator, Now it is called a GPS. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14305

4329. Kaydalenascar 8:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: Yes Houston dodged two gigantic bullets in Rita and Ike. Living to the east I can say they both sucked! And I was on the "wesk" side of Rita. I never want to see a major take Houston head on. Especially since they say they won't evac anymore. It would be bad. Totally agree. I too was on the "weak" side of Rita and on the eastern eyewall for Ike. Neither were pleasant. Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13

4330. TexasHurricane 8:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting winter123: NVM got it. I thought the COC (weak now but thats obviously where its trying to form based on convection and outflow) was in the carribean though?? hmmmmm, still showing this I see... Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

4331. MiamiHurricanes09 8:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting KingofNewOrleans: I doubt 95L is a TD, but at least it's got spin, something that's hard to demonstrate with 96L The only reason that rotation is more evident with 95L is because that invest is much smaller than 96L. In reality 96L's spin is stronger as viewed through MIMIC-TPW. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4332. blsealevel 8:35 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting FLdewey: I make it out there at least once a year on business... it's always interesting to see the progress each year. I, for no scientific reason, think Miami will see the big nasty before nola again. Who knows - it's all part of what makes living in the South, well living in the south. Agree good place to live only get storms every now and then no doupt Fl. gets a ton more hopefully we all come out on top this year. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

4333. Bordonaro 8:35 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting midgulfmom: Interested to see the models once a coc is fixed. That is 96L's problem. It still is an open wave, no closed center of circulation is apparent! The lower pressures in that area, are due to high SST & high TCHP keeps the system popping off large masses of heavy convection, that waxes & wanes. Similar to the monsoon pattern that spawns typhoons in the W PAC. Conditions are favorable for slow development, of course, we all have to wait. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

4334. Tazmanian 8:35 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
at last the net it working the way it sould be it been slow all AM Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

4335. Patrap 8:35 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111578

4336. LADobeLady 8:36 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting midgulfmom: Hi where are you? In Houma, LA Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

4337. stormpetrol 8:36 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
96L COC 17.7N/83W as far I can tell Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400

4338. TexasHurricane 8:36 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting KingofNewOrleans: Maybe 96L will twitter and tell us. Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

4339. Patrap 8:36 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
5 years ago tonight Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111578

4340. Tazmanian 8:37 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
we could see 96L take off fast in the gulf Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

4341. xcool 8:37 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
time RUN OUT .96L BETTER HURRY Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

4343. Patrap 8:38 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting LADobeLady: In Houma, LA My fav spot in Se La..Cocodrie and Dulac. by Far. Heaven Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111578

4344. RuBRNded 8:38 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting winter123: NVM got it. I thought the COC (weak now but thats obviously where its trying to form based on convection and outflow) was in the carribean though?? Why is there a second red dot below the "L" on the map near the 85/20 that some talk about as the possible CoC? Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

4346. MiamiHurricanes09 8:38 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: we could see 96L take off fast in the gulf It's likely that the bulk of organization and development will take place in the Gulf of Mexico. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4347. LADobeLady 8:38 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: 5 years ago tonight < Just a warm up for what was to come. Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

4348. Bordonaro 8:39 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: we could see 96L take off fast in the gulf Yes, that is very true, scary low wind shear in the western Gulf of Mexico!! Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

4349. Patrap 8:39 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting LADobeLady: Just a warm up for what was to come. Lil did we know then.. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111578

4350. winter123 8:39 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Quoting Patrap: 5 years ago tonight They don't even look much different! Why is 95L not even a TD then? Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

4351. midgulfmom 8:40 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: That is 96L's problem. It still is an open wave, no closed center of circulation is apparent! The lower pressures in that area, are due to high SST & high TCHP keeps the system popping off large masses of heavy convection, that waxes & wanes. Conditions are favorable for slow development, of course, we all have to wait. Yes, I get "antsy" sometimes because this is the area (around Yucatan) that I like to start "getting ready" if need be...but hope that's not needed. Thanks! Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

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