A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Dakster:


How many points now?
I counted 35.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
849. xcool




WHXX01 KWBC 041832
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100704 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100704 1800 100705 0600 100705 1800 100706 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 83.5W 18.6N 85.3W 20.6N 86.9W 22.2N 88.4W
BAMD 16.7N 83.5W 18.0N 84.8W 19.0N 86.0W 20.0N 87.0W
BAMM 16.7N 83.5W 18.2N 84.7W 19.6N 85.9W 21.0N 87.1W
LBAR 16.7N 83.5W 18.0N 84.7W 19.2N 86.1W 20.3N 87.6W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100706 1800 100707 1800 100708 1800 100709 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.7N 89.8W 25.7N 92.9W 26.7N 96.6W 27.5N 100.7W
BAMD 20.7N 88.0W 21.4N 90.4W 21.4N 93.3W 21.5N 96.7W
BAMM 22.3N 88.3W 23.9N 91.2W 24.9N 95.0W 25.9N 99.4W
LBAR 21.3N 89.1W 23.6N 92.2W 25.9N 95.1W 27.7N 98.6W
SHIP 56KTS 66KTS 73KTS 73KTS
DSHP 50KTS 60KTS 66KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 79.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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Quoting Weather456:


Well it has more going for it than 95L so they could of mentioned it. This wave is highly amplified with some spinning evident in the lower levels. Has no model support but it has favorable conditions once it reaches the central and western Caribbean. If it continues to maintain its activity then I suspect it would be tagged.
Weather, check my post 837 . It will refresh. Winds at 45 mph here now.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Storm centered vis on 96L.

Awesome satellite loop. 96L is not playing around!!
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846. xcool
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Storm heading NW should slow down in the GOM

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that also warrents a T.C.F.A.SOON TO BE ISSUED



wow
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that also warrents a T.C.F.A.SOON TO BE ISSUED


How many points now?
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Storm centered vis on 96L.
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841. IKE
Quoting xcool:
12z GFS hit middle tx


Where?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
456, you think the wave just east of the Lesser Antilles had to be mentioned in the 2 PM TWO?


Well it has more going for it than 95L so they could of mentioned it. This wave is highly amplified with some spinning evident in the lower levels. Has no model support but it has favorable conditions once it reaches the central and western Caribbean. If it continues to maintain its activity then I suspect it would be tagged.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
isnt that TD status worthy?
Nope. Here's why:

This is the definition of a tropical cyclone from the NHC:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

There is a lot more that needs to be warranted other than strong winds.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
i have a vary bad feeling about 96L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243



The rain rate I know is not right. Way more than that but the winds seem to be right. Wind whistling now.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
isnt that TD status worthy?


It must have a surface low present. Hurricane hunters will go in tomorrow and look to see if it has such a feature. (Assuming you're asking about 96L)
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Quoting StormW:


Moving NW
12Z 16.2N; 83.0W
18Z 16.7N; 83.5W


AL, 96, 2010070418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 835W, 30, 1009, DB,


that also warrents a T.C.F.A.SOON TO BE ISSUED
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Quoting StormW:


One millibar drop in pressure

Here we go! Slow and steady intensification appears to be underway. The SW quadrant is putting up -80C cloud tops. This will be interesting to watch!
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Latest CMC aiming 96L at...argh..NOLA...at t+60h.

Link
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Quoting StormGoddess:
Which direction(s) has less favorable conditions for 96L to develop in and why?


The Bahamas and the extreme eastern GOM. Shear will be high in these areas.

GFS 12Z 850-200mb shear
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Quoting Drakoen:
Floater on 95L


They seeing the Big pic too I think Drak.

A Happy 4th to ya.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting StormW:


Moving NW
12Z 16.2N; 83.0W
18Z 16.7N; 83.5W
I've been noticing that motion on satellite loops. Could finally be catching up with the steering currents.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
........Getting busy out there..
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827. xcool
lol pat
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826. JRRP

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95L's story wont be its impact ..but the door he may leave open for 96L

Stay tuned.

..were all about to get schooled the next 96
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
35mph.
isnt that TD status worthy?
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Floater on 95L
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549 Patrap "[GOES-13 GoM IR Loop ]"
622 xcool "[Accuweather loop]"
741 Patrap "[GoM RGB Loop]"
751 Patrap "[GoM Rainbow Loop]"
811 SALAMETGRAD "[ GOES-EAST ]"

Thanks. From eyeballing, looks like 95L has wrapped convection around its Center of Circulation while traveling ~55miles due west, and has increased its distance by ~35miles to ~129miles away from the DeepwaterHorizon.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 96, 2010070418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 835W, 30, 1009, DB,



that cant be good
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting WindynEYW:
which would dent the tile or his head?
LOL. Mostly likely the tile as his head seems too hard to comprehend a ban. I am curious to see the latest co-ordinates on 96L.
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Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurri oh wow 30mph
35mph.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
796, Thank youuuu!
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Quoting StormW:


One millibar drop in pressure
And a 5 knot increase in winds.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
815. xcool
MiamiHurri oh wow 30mph
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Quoting Weather456:


Looking at the visible images, the system appears well organize, its circulation however is not as define but it deserves a higher percentage especially if we are looking at 48 hrs as in the NHC TWO.
Thanks. The weather here is very nasty. Winds have picked up again and wet,wet,wet.
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Quoting Dakster:


Only if it hits JFV's head...
which would dent the tile or his head?
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
A shame that we don't have recon today cause 95L could have easily been at least a subtropical tc. It also bothers me when most of you all say that it's dead and want to worry about 96L that is not going to bother anybody for days when there is system that is going to impact LA tomorrow. How can you say it's dead when it's looks the best that it's looked since it was tagged an invest ?




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Quoting Patrap:


Something is definitely going on down at the surface.
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AL, 96, 2010070418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 835W, 30, 1009, DB,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 04 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting hydrus:
A large dent?..lol


Only if it hits JFV's head... Although it might knock some sense into him.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
I think the EURO nailed alex, so that's the model I'm going to watch. Man, if anyone missed last week, well, it's being re-run for you with 96L
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456, you think the wave just east of the Lesser Antilles had to be mentioned in the 2 PM TWO?
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Quoting Patrap:


About as many times as you mention JFV taz.

anything else sport?




lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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