Igor an impressive Cat 4; 92L running out of time to develop; Julia forms
There are few sights in the natural world more impressive than a hurricane near maximum intensity. Hurricane Igor certainly fits that description this morning, as it flirts with Category 5 strength in the Central Atlantic. Igor's rapid intensification burst brought the mighty hurricane's winds to 150 mph, just shy of the 156 mph threshold for Category 5 status. Igor is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic in three years. The last hurricane stronger that Igor was Category 5 Hurricane Felix of 2007.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Igor.
Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next four days. Waters are warm, 28.5°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status for the next four days. The hurricane will probably undergo one of the usual eyewall replacement cycles intense hurricanes commonly have, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph when it occurs, but Igor will probably regain its lost intensity when the cycle completes. There's no evidence that an eyewall replacement cycle is imminent today, so Igor could potentially strengthen a bit more. However, I believe Igor has peaked, and will not reach Category 5 status today. By Saturday, when Igor should be nearing Bermuda, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it.
Track forecast for Igor
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure until Tuesday morning, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor appears likely to be a threat to Bermuda, and that island can expect tropical storm force winds as early as Friday. Igor does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 10 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without hitting the U.S. or Canada. While the trough expected to recurve Igor out to sea is not as sharp as the troughs that recurved Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, it should still be strong enough to keep Igor from hitting the U.S. However, Newfoundland, Canada could see a close pass. An examination of the tracks of the ten major September hurricanes that have passed closest to Igor's current location (Figure 2) reveals that one of these hurricanes went on to hit the Bahamas and Florida as a Category 2 storm, and another hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 storm. The other eight missed land. One wild card may be the intensification of Julia behind Igor. If Julia develops into a hurricane and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could interact, affecting the track of Igor unpredictable ways. However, it currently appears the Julia will be much weaker than Igor, and will probably have little impact on her big brother's track.
Figure 2. Historical plot of the tracks of the ten major September hurricanes that have passed closest to Igor's current location.
Caribbean disturbance 92L
Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, centered about 100 miles south of Jamaica, has changed little over the past day. The storm remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression, but time is running out for it to do so. Satellite loops this morning do not show a surface circulation, but 92L does have a moderate area of intense disorganized thunderstorms that are bringing heavy rain to Jamaica this morning. Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 0.67" of rain thus far this morning from 92L.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate for the next five days. The waters beneath are hot, 29.8°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air has been interfering with development of 92L. NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday at 40%. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become any stronger than a tropical storm with 50 mph winds by Wednesday, when it will move over Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico several hundred miles south of the Texas border. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon.
Julia
Tropical Storm Julia formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa yesterday, bringing some heavy rain squalls and gusty winds to the Cape Verdes, but no sustained winds of tropical storm force. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas . Shear is low enough over the next few days to allow Julia to become a hurricane, but shear will rise sharply 4 - 5 days from now, limiting the potential for Julia to become a major hurricane.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a new tropical depression to form off the coast of Africa 6 - 7 days from now.
Next post
I'll have a new post Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I guess you dont mean my thoughts, which are, that would totally suck.
You drew the western ridge where the trough is. That ridge is back over Texas and the northern gulf states.
I don't exclaim poof much but in your case..
POOF.
Here's the sub-940: still unsettling. Still shows a high building in to Igor's northwest. The other one was just more pronounced.
I dunno...I usually prefer a passing play on 3rd and long.
Also, sorry if I missed this, but when does the annular test run? Has it ran more recently than last night?
STUNNING!!!
And I too firmly believe he's a 5.
Do you have, or can you point me in the direction of, the previous map to this? I'd love to compare them together.
I see the trough but is really up there in Canada.
Poof
Sorry - Never-mind. I saw the other maps when I kept reading. Sorry about that.
That dry air in the eye is impressive and representative of a very strong hurricane.
But then again, it's not like we didn't know that already.
You're probably right....I do that a lot because I have never had to verbalize anything regarding Meteorology until I started making these videos lol. I mispronounce a lot of country names and stuff.
Next guest should be 92L in the Bay of Campeche. After that it's...look closer to home.
yes that one would relate to his mbs
It extends down to Bermuda.
Here's the three most recent, showing how the pattern has changed over the last 6 hours. (Yes, I know these are technically the 940-949mb steering winds... I'm just using them because they show the building high much better...)
6 Hours ago:
3 Hours ago:
Current:
Im thinking we will get at least one more cv storm off africa if not 2.
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecasts
Images last updated: Monday, 13 Sep 2010 05:40:09 GMT
*sigh* As I've been saying, the tracks (and really intensities) that far out are largely junk. But its the trend of developing the system that is important. GFS correctly forecast the development (if not intensity and track) of Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Igor, as much as two weeks before they formed. And by forecast I mean showing them developing run after run.
Based on the GFS and ECMWF, I think the Cape Verde season is about to close.
I decided to ignore it because I suspect its movement is being influenced by the outer part of Igor's circulation, and is therefore not a reliable indicator of the steering out there.
Thanks!
looks like that High over Tex isnt moving much
2010SEP13 161500 6.6 934.2/ +2.0 /129.6 6.5 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF 19.44 -68.82 EYE 27 IR 17.60 49.90 COMBO
17.6N but yeah close
It does for me too. Not sure why. I have 21 mbs and watched the nfl through a european feed all day yesterday without a hiccup. The load bar is way ahead of the play as well. But, after pausing it for a bit, it works fine.
BTW, I really love the work, thankyou.
GFS is intermittently developing another CV storm, but not consistent yet.
when you get a chance, can you please answer post 548? thanks
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