Igor an impressive Cat 4; 92L running out of time to develop; Julia forms
There are few sights in the natural world more impressive than a hurricane near maximum intensity. Hurricane Igor certainly fits that description this morning, as it flirts with Category 5 strength in the Central Atlantic. Igor's rapid intensification burst brought the mighty hurricane's winds to 150 mph, just shy of the 156 mph threshold for Category 5 status. Igor is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic in three years. The last hurricane stronger that Igor was Category 5 Hurricane Felix of 2007.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Igor.
Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next four days. Waters are warm, 28.5°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status for the next four days. The hurricane will probably undergo one of the usual eyewall replacement cycles intense hurricanes commonly have, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph when it occurs, but Igor will probably regain its lost intensity when the cycle completes. There's no evidence that an eyewall replacement cycle is imminent today, so Igor could potentially strengthen a bit more. However, I believe Igor has peaked, and will not reach Category 5 status today. By Saturday, when Igor should be nearing Bermuda, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it.
Track forecast for Igor
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure until Tuesday morning, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor appears likely to be a threat to Bermuda, and that island can expect tropical storm force winds as early as Friday. Igor does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 10 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without hitting the U.S. or Canada. While the trough expected to recurve Igor out to sea is not as sharp as the troughs that recurved Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, it should still be strong enough to keep Igor from hitting the U.S. However, Newfoundland, Canada could see a close pass. An examination of the tracks of the ten major September hurricanes that have passed closest to Igor's current location (Figure 2) reveals that one of these hurricanes went on to hit the Bahamas and Florida as a Category 2 storm, and another hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 storm. The other eight missed land. One wild card may be the intensification of Julia behind Igor. If Julia develops into a hurricane and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could interact, affecting the track of Igor unpredictable ways. However, it currently appears the Julia will be much weaker than Igor, and will probably have little impact on her big brother's track.
Figure 2. Historical plot of the tracks of the ten major September hurricanes that have passed closest to Igor's current location.
Caribbean disturbance 92L
Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, centered about 100 miles south of Jamaica, has changed little over the past day. The storm remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression, but time is running out for it to do so. Satellite loops this morning do not show a surface circulation, but 92L does have a moderate area of intense disorganized thunderstorms that are bringing heavy rain to Jamaica this morning. Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 0.67" of rain thus far this morning from 92L.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate for the next five days. The waters beneath are hot, 29.8°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air has been interfering with development of 92L. NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday at 40%. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become any stronger than a tropical storm with 50 mph winds by Wednesday, when it will move over Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico several hundred miles south of the Texas border. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon.
Julia
Tropical Storm Julia formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa yesterday, bringing some heavy rain squalls and gusty winds to the Cape Verdes, but no sustained winds of tropical storm force. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas . Shear is low enough over the next few days to allow Julia to become a hurricane, but shear will rise sharply 4 - 5 days from now, limiting the potential for Julia to become a major hurricane.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a new tropical depression to form off the coast of Africa 6 - 7 days from now.
Next post
I'll have a new post Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Uh oh....Alex made landfall in front of my house....
Right next door to Porta Loo.
Good afternoon, all.
A nice day here.
Scattered sunshine. Intermitent clouds. Showers of warm rain. Hot. Humid.
Igor is a real Pretty Storm.
Wobbling along, Westward for the past few hours.
When does he turn away again?
That's an extremely sharp NW turn, considering its current movement. Seems very improbable
look at the end of the loop, that 9 remind you of a storm?
WHXX01 KWBC 131832
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC MON SEP 13 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100913 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100913 1800 100914 0600 100914 1800 100915 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 50.1W 17.7N 51.9W 18.5N 52.5W 20.1N 52.9W
BAMD 17.6N 50.1W 18.3N 51.6W 19.3N 53.2W 20.3N 54.8W
BAMM 17.6N 50.1W 18.2N 51.6W 19.1N 52.9W 20.3N 53.9W
LBAR 17.6N 50.1W 17.9N 51.7W 18.5N 53.3W 19.1N 55.2W
SHIP 130KTS 130KTS 133KTS 131KTS
DSHP 130KTS 130KTS 133KTS 131KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100915 1800 100916 1800 100917 1800 100918 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.4N 54.4W 25.0N 58.7W 25.8N 61.4W 29.7N 60.1W
BAMD 21.4N 56.3W 23.6N 58.6W 26.2N 61.2W 30.0N 63.0W
BAMM 21.9N 55.2W 24.6N 57.9W 27.0N 60.9W 30.7N 61.9W
LBAR 19.8N 57.0W 21.1N 60.8W 23.3N 64.3W 26.0N 66.5W
SHIP 128KTS 114KTS 107KTS 92KTS
DSHP 128KTS 114KTS 107KTS 92KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 50.1W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 48.4W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 46.1W
WNDCUR = 130KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 130KT
CENPRS = 933MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 130NM
$$
NNNN
Well now that cant be good!
It is evident in this WV loop that Igor is not feeling any weakness to its' north from the current EC trough... IMO Igor is locked onto a west track for at least the next 24 to 36 hours, because he will continue to pump up a ridge finger to his north and NW.
Igor continues to the W for the next 12 (ish hours), then he starts going to the WNW for a while (due to the trough), then it could be that the Ridge builds back in forcing him more to the West.
Bottom line is that IGOR IS going to turn, it's just a matter of WHERE and how much.
We see no north of due of west for igor yet, it was supposed to cross at 17.9N the 50w line, not a significant change, but if it keeps moving due west expect panic and lots of ''porta ricos'' in the islands. XD
jajajaj exacto
You just nailed it!
My short term forecast..
Exactly, that little bubble to it's north is ruining everything! :\
They are not "ALWAYS" right, but they ARE better than "MOST" that are on here bloggin....
Mon Sep 13 14:34:12 EDT 2010
433
WTNT80 EGRR 131800
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.09.2010
HURRICANE IGOR ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 49.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112010
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2010 17.8N 49.1W MODERATE
00UTC 14.09.2010 18.0N 51.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2010 18.0N 52.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2010 18.6N 54.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2010 19.5N 56.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2010 19.8N 57.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2010 20.6N 59.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2010 21.5N 61.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2010 22.6N 62.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2010 24.3N 63.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2010 26.1N 65.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2010 27.7N 65.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2010 29.7N 66.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
And this is where it is:
03 GMT 09/13/10 17.6N 47.8W 150 935 Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/13/10 17.7N 48.8W 150 935 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/13/10 17.5N 49.7W 150 933 Category 4 Hurricane
I just read on another board that 904 is a record for the Euro. Yikes!
No doubt.
I admit, I love tracking wobbles! =)
I'm guessing somewhere around Geographically Challenged PA
it looks like a CAT 5.. for sure
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lets not accuse one another of being wrong.
.
.
.
sigh....we go through this with every recurving storm, until they curve. Then, silence.
I believe we have a Sarcasm Meter Repairman on here. He is also predicting a CONUS landfall.
Same happened with earl more than a week back.
1) If a storm only exists in the models: "You can't trust any forecasts for a storm that doesn't even exist yet!"
2) If it's an invest: "We don't even have a center of circulation; there's no way to have an accurate forecast. Wait until it consolidates itself."
3) If it's a depression or tropical storm: "The storm is still a mess, and it's getting poorly initialized. You can't accurately track a storm like that."
4) If it's a hurricane: "The storm doesn't influence its environment enough to shield itself from unpredictabilities such as shear, dry air, etc, which is messing up the forecasts. The models didn't see (adverse or favorable event X) coming at all. It needs to build more for us to get greater accuracy."
5) If it's a major hurricane: "The storm is creating its own steering; how could we possibly model it?"
Summary: Tropical systems are hard to predict. ;)
Hmmm boxers or briefs? Seriously - time to watch 92 L with a magnifying glass as he nears the Peninsula.
Yep.
I say he goes directly over the 20 N 60W moving WNW.
They had the southern track and they're still too far north.
No 2 p.m. update yet, either.
Irony...
PGI45L ^^^^^^^
Yeah he should extend the red line to S FL, then up to NOLA, then right hook to NYC, that makes the best sense right now. =)
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