Igor an impressive Cat 4; 92L running out of time to develop; Julia forms
There are few sights in the natural world more impressive than a hurricane near maximum intensity. Hurricane Igor certainly fits that description this morning, as it flirts with Category 5 strength in the Central Atlantic. Igor's rapid intensification burst brought the mighty hurricane's winds to 150 mph, just shy of the 156 mph threshold for Category 5 status. Igor is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic in three years. The last hurricane stronger that Igor was Category 5 Hurricane Felix of 2007.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Igor.
Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next four days. Waters are warm, 28.5°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status for the next four days. The hurricane will probably undergo one of the usual eyewall replacement cycles intense hurricanes commonly have, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph when it occurs, but Igor will probably regain its lost intensity when the cycle completes. There's no evidence that an eyewall replacement cycle is imminent today, so Igor could potentially strengthen a bit more. However, I believe Igor has peaked, and will not reach Category 5 status today. By Saturday, when Igor should be nearing Bermuda, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it.
Track forecast for Igor
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure until Tuesday morning, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor appears likely to be a threat to Bermuda, and that island can expect tropical storm force winds as early as Friday. Igor does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 10 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without hitting the U.S. or Canada. While the trough expected to recurve Igor out to sea is not as sharp as the troughs that recurved Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, it should still be strong enough to keep Igor from hitting the U.S. However, Newfoundland, Canada could see a close pass. An examination of the tracks of the ten major September hurricanes that have passed closest to Igor's current location (Figure 2) reveals that one of these hurricanes went on to hit the Bahamas and Florida as a Category 2 storm, and another hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 storm. The other eight missed land. One wild card may be the intensification of Julia behind Igor. If Julia develops into a hurricane and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could interact, affecting the track of Igor unpredictable ways. However, it currently appears the Julia will be much weaker than Igor, and will probably have little impact on her big brother's track.
Figure 2. Historical plot of the tracks of the ten major September hurricanes that have passed closest to Igor's current location.
Caribbean disturbance 92L
Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, centered about 100 miles south of Jamaica, has changed little over the past day. The storm remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression, but time is running out for it to do so. Satellite loops this morning do not show a surface circulation, but 92L does have a moderate area of intense disorganized thunderstorms that are bringing heavy rain to Jamaica this morning. Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 0.67" of rain thus far this morning from 92L.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate for the next five days. The waters beneath are hot, 29.8°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air has been interfering with development of 92L. NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday at 40%. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become any stronger than a tropical storm with 50 mph winds by Wednesday, when it will move over Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico several hundred miles south of the Texas border. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon.
Julia
Tropical Storm Julia formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa yesterday, bringing some heavy rain squalls and gusty winds to the Cape Verdes, but no sustained winds of tropical storm force. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas . Shear is low enough over the next few days to allow Julia to become a hurricane, but shear will rise sharply 4 - 5 days from now, limiting the potential for Julia to become a major hurricane.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a new tropical depression to form off the coast of Africa 6 - 7 days from now.
Next post
I'll have a new post Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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HurricaneIgor's heading had turned southward to (9.6degrees west of) WestSouthWest
from its previous heading of (6.1degrees north of) dueWest
H.Igor's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~10.2mph(~16.4km/h)
12Sep . 09amGMT - - 17.7n44.4w - - - 80mph - - 988mb - - NHC.Adv.#16
12Sep . 03pmGMT - - 17.7n45.7w - - 105mph - - 970mb - - #17
7:30pmGMT H.Igor becomes 140mph-Cat.4
12Sep . 09pmGMT - - 17.7n46.9w - - 140mph - - 942mb - - #19
13Sep . 03amGMT - - 17.6n47.8w - - 150mph - - 935mb - - #20
13Sep . 09amGMT - - 17.7n48.8w - - 150mph - - 935mb - - #21
13Sep . 03pmGMT - - 17.5n49.7w - - 150mph - - 933mb - - #22
Copy&paste 17.7n45.7w-17.7n46.9w, 17.7n46.9w-17.6n47.8w, 17.6n47.8w-17.7n48.8w, 17.7n48.8w-17.5n49.7w, puj, pos, 17.5n49.7w-14.7n60.9w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24*hours.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 6hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~71hours from now to Martinique
* The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Friday? look at the NHC cone
Sometimes when forecasts are derived in 3rd world countries they never get one.
Ah-full of water!
I say hot tub! Ha!
Day! Ba! Very, very hot... Very hot! Da!
Hot tub! Gonna get ya hot-a!
Gonna make ya sweat! Hey! Say!
CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE
Ratings? What you talkin' 'bout Willis?
I thought the one behind Julia was suppose to come off much further south and be the one that would could be a big problem. Has the wave moved more north in the past 48 hours?
Link
We are the peak of the season. I would not close the book just yet....
Plus, Hermine was most definitely a CONUS hit. People died, property was destroyed. It had a major impact.
Makes it easier to keep all those balls in the air...LOL
That's awesome, deff. due west!
I remember Georges all too well.
It does look like it may have started turning just a hair north of west...or maybe it's the angle of the setting sun. Will wait for next few frames.
funny, they stressed calculus in school, but never even offered juggling! lol
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Haha. Of course... your cone points towards Fl at the end...
well,i remember when you doomcastered "Ida" last year as the "Perfect Storm" lol
Sorry, sparky; he's going to miss the next point by a tenth of a degree (a little more, but I'm rounding) if he continues as he is...that is from center position to center position; if you want to use his expanded eyewall, then he might just make it
Yeah.. I do remembered that palm. No coconut water for my whiskey for so many weeks. : )
Brilliant Sleuthing, Watson!!
Good point.
Also, thinking about the thing, if you got a 10' long 2"x4" shifting along at say, 100MPH, and it had a reasonably pointed end (like this one seems to have - far end), it would perforate Most materials.
Also, we just lost a Royal Palm in the garden here last year. By the time the top fell off, the trunk was quite hollow, with walls about 4" thick.
I do not know if this is the normal growth pattern..
yes but this cone is different it shows the turns already
Kermit doesn't carry enough fuel to go that far. He is probably pre-positioning for a flight tomorrow.
In their first few runs after Earl formed, they called for him to move east of Bermuda or a direct hit to Bermuda. Absolutely correct.
I agree, its the fact his eye has grown larger that it gives it the illusion that wobbling northward. Seems to me he's still due west 270.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/flash-vis.html
Igor is not Earl
The current surface analysis is totally different from when Earl was supposed to follow Danille.
There is a huge weakness caused by large troughs rather than a wake from Danille.
Really?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml
There may be a second eyewall trying to form. I think I can see it in the link dmaddox posted.
Link
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