Igor an impressive Cat 4; 92L running out of time to develop; Julia forms
There are few sights in the natural world more impressive than a hurricane near maximum intensity. Hurricane Igor certainly fits that description this morning, as it flirts with Category 5 strength in the Central Atlantic. Igor's rapid intensification burst brought the mighty hurricane's winds to 150 mph, just shy of the 156 mph threshold for Category 5 status. Igor is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic in three years. The last hurricane stronger that Igor was Category 5 Hurricane Felix of 2007.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Igor.
Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next four days. Waters are warm, 28.5°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status for the next four days. The hurricane will probably undergo one of the usual eyewall replacement cycles intense hurricanes commonly have, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph when it occurs, but Igor will probably regain its lost intensity when the cycle completes. There's no evidence that an eyewall replacement cycle is imminent today, so Igor could potentially strengthen a bit more. However, I believe Igor has peaked, and will not reach Category 5 status today. By Saturday, when Igor should be nearing Bermuda, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it.
Track forecast for Igor
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure until Tuesday morning, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor appears likely to be a threat to Bermuda, and that island can expect tropical storm force winds as early as Friday. Igor does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 10 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without hitting the U.S. or Canada. While the trough expected to recurve Igor out to sea is not as sharp as the troughs that recurved Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, it should still be strong enough to keep Igor from hitting the U.S. However, Newfoundland, Canada could see a close pass. An examination of the tracks of the ten major September hurricanes that have passed closest to Igor's current location (Figure 2) reveals that one of these hurricanes went on to hit the Bahamas and Florida as a Category 2 storm, and another hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 storm. The other eight missed land. One wild card may be the intensification of Julia behind Igor. If Julia develops into a hurricane and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could interact, affecting the track of Igor unpredictable ways. However, it currently appears the Julia will be much weaker than Igor, and will probably have little impact on her big brother's track.
Figure 2. Historical plot of the tracks of the ten major September hurricanes that have passed closest to Igor's current location.
Caribbean disturbance 92L
Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, centered about 100 miles south of Jamaica, has changed little over the past day. The storm remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression, but time is running out for it to do so. Satellite loops this morning do not show a surface circulation, but 92L does have a moderate area of intense disorganized thunderstorms that are bringing heavy rain to Jamaica this morning. Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 0.67" of rain thus far this morning from 92L.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate for the next five days. The waters beneath are hot, 29.8°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air has been interfering with development of 92L. NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday at 40%. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become any stronger than a tropical storm with 50 mph winds by Wednesday, when it will move over Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico several hundred miles south of the Texas border. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon.
Julia
Tropical Storm Julia formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa yesterday, bringing some heavy rain squalls and gusty winds to the Cape Verdes, but no sustained winds of tropical storm force. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas . Shear is low enough over the next few days to allow Julia to become a hurricane, but shear will rise sharply 4 - 5 days from now, limiting the potential for Julia to become a major hurricane.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a new tropical depression to form off the coast of Africa 6 - 7 days from now.
Next post
I'll have a new post Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I edited the post.
Hey StormW. I enjoy your blogs and opinions. I know it can be frustrating when people continue to challenge your opinions and/or insult you with their childish behavior. Just know we consider you a valuable resource for this blog.
Some how, or another, I do believe that I have recently seen this movie before... A little over a week ago to be specific.
Yeah I'm wondering the same thing, must be waiting on HH to confirm.
StormW,
I love Wvloops. Truth lies there. (Haha. Truth lies.) See that stuff that's moving clockwise around the top of the TX High? Well it's been causing storms here in the "middle" for two days. Where the heck's it going? I think it'll add strength to the trough and/or help weaken the high. But then, I don't know much except I love wvloops.
Actually it does have a tendency to go north..
Since the coriollis effect is stronger on the north side of a cyclone it get pulled northwards if nothing else stops it from going northwards. Basic physics.
It's called debating dracko. It's healthy for those that can handle it. I have seen SW's forecast for Danielle, Earl, and now Igor...Each time, he seemed to lean more towards the possibility of each of them making a US landfall at some point. I just disagree with that method and want the opportunity to discuss the data behind it.
really? StormW called for a CONUS landfall? Where? Can you post the link for that?
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010
THE STRUCTURE OF IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE EYE REMAINS VERY DISTINCT IN IR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND
ALTHOUGH THE TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE WARMED A BIT...DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 130 KT. IGOR WILL
REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DOES NOT SHOW ANY WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS. WHILE A 1640 UTC
AMSR-E PASS DOES NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL
YET...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL OCCUR
IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS NOT REPRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 36
HOURS...ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SLOW WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO OVERLY NEGATIVE FACTORS UNTIL
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY INCREASE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
BUT IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL DUE WEST...270 DEGREES...AT 9 KNOTS.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE UKMET...INSISTS ON A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IGOR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF AND UKMET STILL SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF
IGOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TAKING THE CYCLONE FARTHER WEST
THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS AND GFDL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE LEAST RIDGING AND TURN IGOR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
A LITTLE LESS SPREAD NOW THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS ENDS UP BEING VERY CLOSE TO
THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.
LARGE SWELLS FROM IGOR WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TOMORROW AND REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/2100Z 17.7N 50.5W 130 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 18.1N 51.7W 130 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 18.9N 53.2W 130 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 20.0N 54.7W 130 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 21.1N 56.1W 130 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 23.5N 58.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 26.5N 61.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 30.0N 64.0W 105 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
I do too, even if I do end up being wrong, as I just was on the ERC. When well executed by those participating, a debate allows the participants to see what the others points of view are and why they are that way. In the end, it shouldn't matter about who is right or wrong, but about learning.
+10
The NRL site has some good ones too. Under imagery.
Hurricane IGOR Public Advisory
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 132038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010
...IGOR CONTINUES WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 50.5W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL
HURRICANE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Anything is possible but it is not likely to take a similar track.
Try this
Please pass the decaf this way Ike....
Hurricane IGOR Wind Speed Probabilities
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000
FONT11 KNHC 132038
PWSAT1
HURRICANE IGOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2010
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130
KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 3
TROPICAL STORM X X X 1 5 11 26
HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 95 87 70
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 3 17 29 33
HUR CAT 2 X 2 5 10 23 26 19
HUR CAT 3 6 20 27 34 34 23 15
HUR CAT 4 82 64 53 40 17 8 3
HUR CAT 5 12 13 13 13 4 1 X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 130KT 130KT 130KT 130KT 120KT 110KT 105KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Page last modified: Monday, 13-Sep-2010 20:39:07 GMT
This was just posted - enlarge for eye detail
Link
But I keep watching, waiting, & praying to see it FINALLY head that way. Other than a couple of minor bobbles & 1 or 2 brief slowdowns, I don't see that he's had any intention of going a different direction than WEST. And seems he's actually tended to scoot a bit South of a straight Western track.
I wasn't real concerned about Igor early, because of how the models were all & definitely predicting that NW/N curve. But seeing that he hasn't done that by ths evening, I'm now getting a bit concerned.
I'm no meteorologist & will never claim to be. I'm a musician. But I understand the basics of what makes hurricanes do what they do. Just how "solid" is this prediction of Igor doing the curve? Is there a decently high chance of him forgetting to do that & just going straight for the Gulf or Florida?
To me, the simple observer & worrier, it seems that at the point he's currently at, and the W/WSW track he's been on for days, it would take a VERY strong force to curve it as much as the models are showing it to. Hopefully I'm wrong however & he'll stay away.
now that is funny
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