Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.

Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.

Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)

Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.

Categories: Hurricane

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1851. Bordonaro 4:49 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting pottery: And on top of all that, pressures are FALLING again in Cayman Islands. How much has the pressure fallen over the last few hours? Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1852. hunkerdown 4:50 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting zoomiami: Could we please not remember that? lol Keep getting up to see what's going on, will be a long night. comparing apples and oranges...Julia was a typical atlantic-type system, this is not Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

1853. KoritheMan 4:50 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: Julia took off with 25 KT of shear and became a CAT 4!!!! Yeah but it doesn't happen often. :P Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418

1854. Saltydogbwi1 4:50 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: How much has the pressure fallen over the last few hours? went up to 999 now back to 998mb Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 276

1855. 1992Andrew 4:50 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Model runs may have been on to something. Multiple systems being ejected by this cesspool of moisture in the caribbean. What are the chances of this possible low travelling due north, following an identical path to that of 96L (and thereby not going over the central bahamas) ? Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 205

1856. traumaboyy 4:50 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet: Crap, I don't know how those self-quotes, got out there. I don't believe in that. Apologies to the blog. A very good morning Sir! Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2176

1857. pottery 4:51 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting ackee: right now in jamaica I am on the south side winds are really gusting strong just wondering if new centre is forming under the convention west of jamaica Looks like we have to wait on the HH's to tell us where the center is now. Good to see you, by the way. Reports of any landslides west of you? Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1858. CaptnDan142 4:51 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting GTcooliebai: Nothing wrong with speaking your mind! :-) Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

1859. PSLFLCaneVet 4:52 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
I will put this out there: A wise person said," Don't argue with a person of lesser intelligence. They will wear you down, and beat you with experience". Look it up. I'm out. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12405

1860. TampaSpin 4:52 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Shear is ripping the hell out of Td16....i don't see currently anyway it makes it to TS status under those current conditions. NO WAY Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1861. traumaboyy 4:53 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting CaptnDan142: Nothing wrong with speaking your mind! :-) Almost mornin to you Dan gotta love this weather!! Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2176

1862. GTcooliebai 4:53 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting xcool: Link here Thanks just found it when I search 384 hrs GFS. Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5166

1863. Bordonaro 4:53 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Saltydogbwi1: went up to 999 now back to 998mb This monsoonal Low is weird, but the W PAC has this happen 22 times in a normal seasonm this is really different!! Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1864. sunlinepr 4:54 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439

1865. traumaboyy 4:54 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Shear is ripping the hell out of Td16....i don't see currently anyway it makes it to TS status under those current conditions. NO WAY Agree 100% ....rainy weekend south florida!! Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2176

1866. pottery 4:54 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Saltydogbwi1: went up to 999 now back to 998mb Oh!! I thought it had gone past 1000. My mistake. But still, falling to 998 in Cayman must mean something or the other. If it were'nt so late, I could probably figure out what.... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1867. zoomiami 4:55 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting pottery: Oh!! I thought it had gone past 1000. My mistake. But still, falling to 998 in Cayman must mean something or the other. If it were'nt so late, I could probably figure out what.... Your up late tonight Pottery... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4064

1868. CaptnDan142 4:56 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting traumaboyy: Almost mornin to you Dan gotta love this weather!! Mornin'! I know what you mean - I'm lovin' it. Had the windows open since yesterday evening. Love that fresh air. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

1869. wxhatt 4:57 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting ackee: right now in jamaica I am on the south side winds are really gusting strong just wondering if new centre is forming under the convention west of jamaica From which direction the wind is blowing? TIA Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 834

1870. hulazigzag 4:57 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
I think the big factor in 16 is what the trough/front does in the next 24 hours. If the trough pulls back enough a stronger tighter circulation is possible also more of a north movement over the middle of florida. On the other hand if the trough stays put more of a subtropical storm should form and a more easterly track with less effect on florida. Member Since: July 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 240

1871. CosmicEvents 4:57 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
ok.....enough with the "artifact". This blog needs a cake, bolus! Everybody grab a fork, get a piece of this, and wash it down with some cold milk. . . Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5093

1872. VAbeachhurricanes 4:57 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Time: 04:41:00Z Coordinates: 26.4667N 84.45W Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4797

1873. Bordonaro 4:57 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Pottery, lets see what the HH aircraft finds. Can someone post a radar loop near TD 16 please. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1874. pottery 4:58 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting zoomiami: Your up late tonight Pottery... Yeah. It's 1:00 am for true... Had a pretty docile day and dont feel sleep coming on yet. Soon though..... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1875. Patrap 4:59 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
WFO SWAN 5-panel Models for Miami area Caution,LARGE File Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1876. traumaboyy 4:59 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents: ok.....enough with the "artifact". This blog needs a cake, bolus! Everybody grab a fork, get a piece of this, and wash it down with some cold milk. . . lol...thanks....will stick with Coffee though!! Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2176

1877. VAbeachhurricanes 5:00 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
me: 04:41:00Z Coordinates: 26.4667N 84.45W Acft. Static Air Press: 397.4 mb (~ 11.74 inHg) Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,541 meters (~ 24,741 feet) Extrap. Sfc. Press: - D-value: 314 meters (~ 1,030 feet) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 220° at 12 knots (From the SW at ~ 13.8 mph) Air Temp: -19.4°C (~ -2.9°F) Dew Pt: -23.8°C (~ -10.8°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: - SFMR Rain Rate: - Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4797

1878. pottery 5:00 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents: ok.....enough with the "artifact". This blog needs a cake, bolus! Everybody grab a fork, get a piece of this, and wash it down with some cold milk. . . NAH!! That would keep me up 'till Wednesday if I ate it now. (but thanks anyway.. LOL) Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1879. Patrap 5:01 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
NHC TAFB Experimental Graphicast This is the experimental Graphical Forecast (Graphicast) produced by NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch. It is a graphical weather depiction that will highlight primary weather features of interest. The image is experimental and has planned updates once per day in the early afternoon. If you have questions or comments about this new feature, please complete the contact form below. Comments will be accepted through October 20, 2010. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1880. NRAamy 5:01 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Cosmic, baby!! Now that's what I'm talking about! :) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

1881. sunlinepr 5:02 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439

1882. Patrap 5:02 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Our younger Hobbyists and other need to understand this is more a Pacific Monsoonal Trof than a Typical TD or TS from the East or Cv style. Its a Large Monsoonal type Gyre with the effects to be felt far removed from the center of circ which is broad and ill defined and will likely remain till it goes extra in 48-72. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1883. VAbeachhurricanes 5:02 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
me: 04:52:30Z Coordinates: 25.6667N 83.9333W Acft. Static Air Press: 397.5 mb (~ 11.74 inHg) Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,550 meters (~ 24,770 feet) Extrap. Sfc. Press: - D-value: 320 meters (~ 1,050 feet) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 198° at 18 knots (From the SSW at ~ 20.7 mph) Air Temp: -17.5°C (~ 0.5°F) Dew Pt: -23.5°C (~ -10.3°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: - SFMR Rain Rate: - () Denotes suspect data getting there... Member Since:* September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4797

1884. PrivateIdaho 5:03 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents: ok.....enough with the "artifact". This blog needs a cake, bolus! Everybody grab a fork, get a piece of this, and wash it down with some cold milk. . . First the dog name...now the cake, you are trying to drive me insane.....POOF! Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1885. Patrap 5:03 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Graphical Forecasts - Mid Atlantic Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1886. Patrap 5:03 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1887. GTcooliebai 5:04 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5166

1888. wxhatt 5:04 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: Pottery, lets see what the HH aircraft finds. Can someone post a radar loop near TD 16 please. Looks like it's headed more north now. Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 834

1889. NRAamy 5:04 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Pat....everything you said just went WOOSH over my head.... I blame it on the artifact.... Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

1890. pottery 5:04 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Our younger Hobbyists and other need to understand this is more a Pacific Monsoonal Trof than a Typical TD or TS from the East or Cv style. Its a Large Monsoonal type Gyre with the effects to be felt far removed from the center of circ which is broad and ill defined and will likely remain till it goes extra in 48-72. As an "other" I am glad you posted that. Puts the thing into perspective. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1891. traumaboyy 5:05 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting PrivateIdaho: First the dog name...now the cake, you are trying to drive me insane.....POOF! Mornin Sir!! Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2176

1892. Patrap 5:05 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
AL-16 2010 SIXTEEN for Run: 2010-09-29 00Z Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis (MTCSWA) Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1893. Bordonaro 5:06 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1894. NRAamy 5:06 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Spud!! You can't POOF Cosmic! That's like sacrilegious or sumthin.... Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

1895. Patrap 5:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting pottery: As an "other" I am glad you posted that. Puts the thing into perspective. Itsa repost from earlier as Im lazy tonight,but up still with a Migraine. Sometimes the puter and meds relieve it.. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1896. pottery 5:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting PrivateIdaho: First the dog name...now the cake, you are trying to drive me insane.....POOF! You mean "WOOF", surely? Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1897. BahaHurican 5:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Starting now to get some gustier winds w/ rain blowing on windows. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

1898. PrivateIdaho 5:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting traumaboyy: Mornin Sir!! 'sup Trauma...saving the world again I suppose. Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1899. ackee 5:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting pottery: Looks like we have to wait on the HH's to tell us where the center is now. Good to see you, by the way. Reports of any landslides west of you? right now seem like winds comeing from the SE lot flooding where I am not sure about the western parish thow Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194

1900. Patrap 5:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting NRAamy: Pat....everything you said just went WOOSH over my head.... I blame it on the artifact.... Thats Okay,,as Long as the Twins are happy,,you get a free pass chica. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1901. CosmicEvents 5:08 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting pottery: As an "other" I am glad you posted that. Puts the thing into perspective. well....i just spit up my milk. Thanks pottery, and Patrap. Another "other" reporting in....... Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5093

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