Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.

Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.

Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)

Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.

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2101. poknsnok 8:49 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
noone posting models? must be nothing interesting down the road Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 222

2102. gordydunnot 8:52 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Observation Miami/Dade county is getting a lot of rain today maybe the kids will use boats to get home. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2103. KoritheMan 8:54 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting gordydunnot: Come on KM you know they are thinking about retiring td 16 as we speak. J/K It does make everyone feel better if their loved ones were killed by something significant. I don't think they should retire any names maybe people would pay more attention that way. True, I can understand that. But I believe that in the case of retirement, logic should trump emotion. Sure, a country can request retirement of a particular storm all they want, and indeed, that's their right. But it's absurd to think that those requests, unless they are obviously needed, will actually be granted. Seriously, it's kind of like Hawaii and its request for the retirement of 2006's Ioke. What did Ioke do that was so notable? Slam Wake Island? Ugh. Sorry. I just have a very big pet peeve when it comes to people wanting to retire storms needlessly. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643

2104. KoritheMan 8:54 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting poknsnok: noone posting models? must be nothing interesting down the road No there is. Just all the model posters are asleep. If you must know, several global models predict tropical cyclogenesis in this part of the Caribbean again in about 4-7 days, and also hint at development near the northern Leeward Islands, likely from the EATL wave. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643

2105. KoritheMan 8:55 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
5AM advisory out. No Nicole. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643

2106. Neapolitan 8:56 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting gordydunnot: Come on KM you know they are thinking about retiring td 16 as we speak. J/K It does make everyone feel better if their loved ones were killed by something significant. I don't think they should retire any names maybe people would pay more attention that way. If they didn't retire any names, we'd be stuck saying things like, "Remember Katrina? No, not that one; that was in 2005. The one that hit Houston. No, not the one in 2014; the other one that hit Houston, the second one. No, not the tropical storm, either; that was in 2022. The second Hurricane Katrina to hit Houston. Yeah, that one..." :-) Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11308

2107. Thaale 8:58 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
At this point - and as of the new 5AM advisory it's still TD16, not Nicole - what would be retired? The number 16? Like a hotel without a 13th floor, in future years the 16th TD of the season would be dubbed TD17, etc. Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308

2108. KoritheMan 8:59 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
000 WTNT41 KNHC 290857 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 500 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI...ALONG WITH RADAR RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLYING BETWEEN FLORIDA AND CUBA HAS INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 33 KT IN UNCONTAMINATED SFMR DATA ABOUT 80-120 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN SEEN NOTED IN PRIOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECON DATA. THE LARGEST DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY VALUES DETECTED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 40-44 KT BETWEEN 6000-12000 FT. THIS INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. THE DEPRESSION IS ON TRACK AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/12. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BEEN STEADILY BACKING AROUND FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 85W...THE FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACCELERATE THE DEPRESSION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE STRONG BACKING FLOW PATTERN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE FORECAST TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN OR LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 30 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND BE COMPLETE BY 36-48 HR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 48 HOURS...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER U. S. BAROCLINIC OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 23.3N 81.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 25.2N 80.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 28.9N 79.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 33.8N 78.6W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 01/0600Z 40.0N 77.3W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643

2109. KoritheMan 9:01 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan: If they didn't retire any names, we'd be stuck saying things like, "Remember Katrina? No, not that one; that was in 2005. The one that hit Houston. No, not the one in 2014; the other one that hit Houston, the second one. No, not the tropical storm, either; that was in 2022. The second Hurricane Katrina to hit Houston. Yeah, that one..." :-) LMAO Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643

2110. gordydunnot 9:04 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Looking at satellites did the eastern and central Atlantic get the memo on the Cape Verde season being over. I said I wouldn't post anymore on the Caribbean system until it got convection on all sides, so I'm sticking to my guns on that one. Even though I have the temptations"Ball of confusion'Link that's what is is today. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2111. traumaboyy 9:06 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: 5AM advisory out. No Nicole. Mornin Kori! Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2213

2112. traumaboyy 9:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan: If they didn't retire any names, we'd be stuck saying things like, "Remember Katrina? No, not that one; that was in 2005. The one that hit Houston. No, not the one in 2014; the other one that hit Houston, the second one. No, not the tropical storm, either; that was in 2022. The second Hurricane Katrina to hit Houston. Yeah, that one..." :-) ROFL! Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2213

2113. BahaHurican 9:09 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Morning Kori. I'm looking at the multiple vortices and thinking this is what the GFS was trying to get at on the weekend with the multiple systems one right after the other. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

2114. gordydunnot 9:16 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Neapolitan exactly my point I am so tired of every time there is a puff of wind people rolling out the it reminds me of this storm track when Nicole was never going to be a Wilma. I know that is now 20/20 hindsight. But it seems to have over and under hype aspects to me. And like I said draw a line 100 -200 dead 1 billion/100 billion, seems arbitrary to me having to ask for something when my love one or house is destroyed. God i hate this phrase "I'm just saying" there you go stick a fork in me I'm done. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2116. BahaHurican 9:19 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Stewart makes it sound like we could have a renaming by 8 a.m. .... Currently windy and raining here, just now very heavily. Lots of pple won't want to get out of bed today.... me included... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

2117. KoritheMan 9:21 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting traumaboyy: Mornin Kori! Good morning and good night. lol It's 4:30 and I need sleep. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643

2118. KoritheMan 9:21 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: Morning Kori. I'm looking at the multiple vortices and thinking this is what the GFS was trying to get at on the weekend with the multiple systems one right after the other. Morning! Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15643

2119. traumaboyy 9:23 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: Good morning and good night. lol It's 4:30 and I need sleep. With all the excitement in the tropics....how can you sleep?? Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2213

2121. gordydunnot 9:26 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Baha if i had kids today I tell them sleep in rug rats myself. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2122. Neapolitan 9:26 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting gordydunnot: Neapolitan exactly my point I am so tired of every time there is a puff of wind people rolling out the it reminds me of this storm track when Nicole was never going to be a Wilma. I know that is now 20/20 hindsight. But it seems to have over and under hype aspects to me. And like I said draw a line 100 -200 dead 1 billion/100 billion, seems arbitrary to me having to ask for something when my love one or house is destroyed. God i hate this phrase "I'm just saying" there you go stick a fork in me I'm done. Well, there are times a name is requested for retirement, and even makes the short list, but just doesn't get enough votes in the final tally to be taken from the six-year mix. From what I can gather, though, the folks at the spring meeting doing the voting really do try their best to strike the right balance. And FWIW, while there may be a few retired names some disagree with, most of them seem pretty fitting: Andrew, Donna, Allan, Charley, Mitch, Katrina, and so on. Anyway, tor reference--that is, comparison with the 12z models out later this morning--here are the 00z runs on select models: --CMC shows a second system forming in the western Caribbean and following a very similar path as TD 16, being off the coast of Miami on Monday morning. Meanwhile, a stronger storm passes through the Windward Islands on Monday night. --GFS has a western Caribbean system forming as well, though struggling to develop as it moves to the NNE farther offshore Miami next Wednesday. --NGP develops a western Caribbean system that's sort of stuck in its birthplace for several days, finally becoming a bit stronger on Tuesday, while a growing system skirts just north of Puerto Rico on that same day. --ECMWF shows a system slowly developing in the central Caribbean by the early to mid part of next week. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11308

2123. roleli 9:26 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
In Kingston Jamaica, starting about 1 hour ago we had a serious thunderstorm, accompanied by heavy rain. Conditions have settled down with just light rain. see..http://metservice.gov.jm/radarpage2.asp Member Since: September 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61

2124. BahaHurican 9:37 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting gordydunnot: Baha if i had kids today I tell them sleep in rug rats myself. I wish the government would call off school today [I don't think they will] because the traffic is going to be a mess, and with school closed the volume would decrease by as much as 1/3.... Looked outside a minute ago while getting breakfast, and it looked like wind from the south blowing steady as much as 15 kts.... now it's varying between still and gusts to that. Much cooler than Monday a.m..... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

2126. BahaHurican 9:40 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting roleli: In Kingston Jamaica, starting about 1 hour ago we had a serious thunderstorm, accompanied by heavy rain. Conditions have settled down with just light rain. see..http://metservice.gov.jm/radarpage2.asp doesn't look like that cloud of heavy weather is moving away from JA anytime soon... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

2127. BahaHurican 9:45 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
View centred over New Providence. U can see we are in the clear for a little bit... View centred over JA. U can see they r not.... Caymans also getting a blast. I better get going. If I can get on the road while we're still in that lull, I may actually have reasonable driving conditions on the way to work. [trying not to think about the flooded roadways...] Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

2128. BahaHurican 9:47 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Boy, whoever said spelling doesn't matter never worked with HTML.... lol Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

2129. gordydunnot 9:48 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Neapolitan your probably right if it makes some people happy what do I care. m\My point if I have one is you were able to correct the Doc earlier and that storm didn't have a name,1900,1926, 1928and 1933 none had names but I doubt anyone who knows the slightest about storms can't remember them. Sorry I just equate retired names to sport athletes so that's what makes the world go around, just seems to trivialize tropical systems to me. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2130. IKE 9:51 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Miami, Florida (Airport) Updated: 5 min 26 sec ago Light Rain 75 °F Light Rain Humidity: 94% Dew Point: 73 °F Wind: 5 mph from the NE Pressure: 29.56 in (Falling) Visibility: 10.0 miles UV: 0 out of 16 Pollen: .50 out of 12 Pollen Forecast new! Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1300 ft Mostly Cloudy 4500 ft Mostly Cloudy 7000 ft (Above Ground Level) Elevation: 7 ft ............................................ Key West, Florida (Airport) Updated: 26 min 58 sec ago Scattered Clouds 79 °F Scattered Clouds Humidity: 83% Dew Point: 73 °F Wind: 16 mph from the ESE Wind Gust: 22 mph Pressure: 29.48 in (Falling) Visibility: 10.0 miles UV: 0 out of 16 Pollen: .60 out of 12 Pollen Forecast new! Clouds: Few 1600 ft Scattered Clouds 2800 ft (Above Ground Level) Elevation: 0 ft Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

2131. BahaHurican 9:53 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
But gordy, under the earlier non-named regime, noteworthy storms "got" a name.... so they were set apart. Once all storms were named, something needed to be done to separate the "bad" ones from the rank and file. BTW, the one local PWS currently on line is showing pressure down to 1000 mb... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

2132. BahaHurican 9:54 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Hey, Ike. Slept in this morning, I see.... lol I'm out for now. If I can get on when I get to work today, I'll check in after 7 a.m. EDT.... Have a great one, and stay safe, all in the storm area! Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

2133. whepton3 9:56 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Good Morning from Boca Raton, FL. I'm wearing my helmet, but nothing of note here. We had a couple of good squalls overnight and some light to moderate heavy rain right now. I expect we should pick up some wind att some point here... looks like the easterly track will keep the worst of it out over the ocean. Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637

2135. gordydunnot 10:03 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Have a nice day Baha I mean that. That's what makes the world go round different points of view, and i say on this one I'm in the minority. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2136. IKE 10:11 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Tallahassee weather office.... LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK CAN MAKE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE. IT WAS JUST A FEW DAYS AGO THAT WE CONTINUED TO SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S. NOW THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...AND AT TIMES WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS. GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS ENERGY WILL CLOSE OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS...AND THEN HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THE POSITION OF THIS TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER (IN TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL) TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE BIG IMPACT WILL BE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH THE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO OUR NORTH...THEN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE DROP BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM DOTHAN TO ALBANY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 EARLY NEXT WEEK...DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE WITH WIDESPREAD 50S. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...A FEW NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

2137. surfmom 10:13 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
I see the Morning crew is wide awake - I'm working on it -when I read Baha's post2113 "many vortices", at first I read many "voices" better drink more coffee before posting Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

2138. whepton3 10:15 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting traumaboyy: With all the excitement in the tropics....how can you sleep?? I couldn't sleep... up and down all night here in Boca. Wearing my helmet and HANS device. Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637

2139. surfmom 10:15 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
been promised rain here SRQ/SWFL for 2 days - nothing much here at all - bummer to have to water the veggie garden with soooo much moisture around Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

2140. IKE 10:18 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting surfmom: been promised rain here SRQ/SWFL for 2 days - nothing. much here at all - bummer to have to water the veggie garden with soooo much moisture around I was just looking at your forecast...70% chance of rain today and tonight. Your airport..... Fort Myers, Florida (Airport) Updated: 24 min 34 sec ago Scattered Clouds 75 °F Scattered Clouds Humidity: 94% Dew Point: 73 °F Wind: 8 mph from the ENE Pressure: - (Falling) Visibility: 10.0 miles UV: 0 out of 16 Pollen: 5.90 out of 12 Pollen Forecast new! Clouds: Few 600 ft Scattered Clouds 7500 ft (Above Ground Level) Elevation: 16 ft ............................................. Looking at recon and observations from area airports in south Florida...the winds with TD16 are insignificant. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

2141. nash28 10:24 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Good morning all. Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

2142. aislinnpaps 10:24 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Morning Surfmom and everyone. A nice cool 56 degrees here this morning. 16 looks like it would like the name Nicole, but also looks like that could be ify? Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2542

2143. WxLogic 10:25 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Good Morning... Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4721

2144. Caymanite 10:27 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Moderate to heavy rain here in Grand Cayman all night and continuing this morning. I drove to work anout an hour ago and all streets OK with very little flooding. Wind has not been a problem here with gusts last night only reaching about 30 mph. Looks like more heavy rain on the way so I am closing the business for the day and returning home to lurk on WU.--LOL Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 315

2145. hurricanecrab 10:27 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Good morning everybody Blustery out there in Cayman Brac! 12-20 mph wind; gusts earlier to 35. Our pressure is reading 994.8. Looks like we only got about 3/4" of rain last night. I'm surprised at that, but perhaps the wind is driving it away from my rain gauge. Nice n' cool at 76 degrees. Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 63 Comments: 9184

2146. nash28 10:29 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Preparing for a very wet day here in Charleston. Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

2147. tkeith 10:29 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Crab, you're in the belly of the beast :) Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8851

2148. QMiami 10:29 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 124

2149. floridastorm 10:29 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
TD 16 looking better as it gains convection around the COC. Today might have been a bad day to open schools for everyone. Member Since: May 20, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 142

2150. whepton3 10:30 AM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting barotropic: Here in Pompano beach...just north of Lauderdale press is droping 1 mb per hour and now at 1001mb with heavy squalls. Barotropic... right up the road from you in Boca! whattaya think? Is the rest of the morning gonna get more interesting? Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637

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