Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Jeff9641:
It appears the center of TD 16 is relocating Between The Isle Of Youth and Grand Cayman.

starting to look impressive too

TD 16 looks like a big disorganized mess. I don't see Nicole coming from this...yet...

Morning.

It looks like this is going to be a inland weather event once it gets into North Carolina.

Shields still up for the GOM.
TD16 is so goofy-looking no-way to really get a good handle on it. Safe bet that it won't bring much wind to Florida.

AL, 16, 2010092912, , BEST, 0, 219N, 809W, 30, 996, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1003, 360, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,

It is still a TD with pressure of 996 mb.

I am in Oakland Park, FL in Broward County. So far steady moderate to occasionally heavy rain. No wind to speak of so far. It looks like the actual weather with this system is mostly past us and we have one more blob of rain to go through, which is supposed to be the worst of it and then its over. Strange year. This will be the second time this year we have a direct landfall of a tropical system in SE Florida, yet both turned out the be complete duds ( Thank God )

Quoting sammywammybamy:


Please remove that word.

....it was accident,im using a droid phone and the dumb thing changes words on ya sometimes if you don't spell something correctly or its not even a word(like coc ),so cock was close,I didn't see it,when I did I changed it!!!

I'm out for now, Pressure still coming up but don't know for how long. 997.6 mbs.

Back later. Nasty weather all day on tap.

Also if the center is indeed developing south of Cuba then the heavy rains in South Florida are just begining and could continue thru Thursday unless it moves north just east of South Florida which would keep the heaviest rains in the Bahamas.

Look for updates to the local forecasts in Miami as they have only scatterd storms for tonight and tommorrow

Quoting lickitysplit:
Surprised to see our TD falling apart this morning. I thought we'd have nichole by now.

One word, Cuba. I see then center in the relocated position, moving slowly NNE. Better find some water soon, the relocation kicked the crutches out from under TD16.

8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 29
Location: 22.6°N 81.4°W

LATCUR = 21.9N LONCUR = 80.9W

TD 16 has relocated its center again to the ESE to SE.

Quoting Jeff9641:
In Orlando yesterday many areas picked up 2.5 to 7" of rain in a very short amount of time. As tropical moisture bumped up against a stalled front and now TD 16 should bring more rain later today.

and then you are done with the rain. no more rain in the 10 day forecast.

Looking at this trough advancing to the cyclones west, I wonder if we'll ever get a FL Landfall?

Quoting cat5hurricane:
Mother Nature always seems to have a way to work itself out.

I read somewhere that hurricanes are actually beneficial to the earth's atmosphere...

I'm guessing TD16 relocated to over water

Looks like the dry air is advancing east toward Florida...

Quoting Bobbyweather:
8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 29
Location: 22.6°N 81.4°W

LATCUR = 21.9N LONCUR = 80.9W

TD 16 has relocated its center again to the ESE to SE.

If that be the case, it could become a lot better organized than currently advertised.

Quoting BobinTampa:


Tampa is still pitching a virtual shutout. Haven't gotten much at all.

,had one band fall apart around here(srq)around 3pm yesterday,less than .10 ......local area shields holding a 100%,lol

Quoting kmanislander:
Another round of very heavy weather coming in from the SW any moment now. Just heard that Cayman Prep is closed today.

Good morning Kman, StormWatcherCI and everyone else.

CIS is now as well - though as the decision was being based on the Governments decision on public schools they already had staff and some kids on site by the time the decision was made (including mine but her mums a teacher so I don't have to rush back from the office just yet).

Good Morning......TD 16 might be a disorganized mess, from a cyclone prespective, but those "proto" rain bands over Cuba, Jamaica and the Caribbean slowly drifting to the North are the most wicked I have seen in a long time...MAJOR life threatening flood threats for those folks.......Could potentially bring a death toll higher that a Cat 1 or 2 Cane.

TD #16 is very close to Tropical Storm status.

Quoting afj3:

I read somewhere that hurricanes are actually beneficial to the earth's atmosphere...

Most, if not all, of what mother nature does is beneficial to the earth. Acts of nature are a problem for humans that have built things in her way....but hurricanes serve a several very important purposes: transporting heat out of the tropics, and clearing old trees, foliage, etc. to make way for new, more robust growth. Hurricanes totally defoliate trees when they pass, allowing sunlight to reach the ground in overgrown areas...which in turn, allows new plants and trees to grow.

Surface obs on the RAMSDIS visible indicate the center has indeed relocated to that POS.

My guess is the center is at
81.8w and 21.5n just east/southeast of the Isle of Youth.
Near the center of calm. The thunderstorms have formed mainly on the NE thru the SW side of this area.

good morning Jeff. yes indeed. I wonder though how many tropical systems might make it to the west coast of florida?

if the positioning of the trough is as it is now, more storms to probably go to south florida.

in fact I heard that Otto now looks to threaten south florida and not the west coast of florida

Quoting IKE:
Looks like the dry air is advancing east toward Florida...

looks like a great majority of the storms are already due south or east of florida and the storm is moving nne. They may still miss alot of the rain this storm has to offer.

Breaking news for Jamaica

Link

I checked official rainfall observations at various airports in Dade and Broward Counties. So far at most 1.5 - 2 inches of rain. This is looking to be an ever so slightly stronger version of Bonnie from early August which was a joke considering all the fear mongering in the news on that one.

I do not understand how we can talk about Otto when we don't even have Nicole..
Just wondering

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

Wonder if\how much the models will change based on a center relocation.

Quoting stillwaiting:
....it was accident,im using a droid phone and the dumb thing changes words on ya sometimes if you don't spell something correctly or its not even a word(like coc ),so cock was close,I didn't see it,when I did I changed it!!!

I have droid too and used to hate that. i changed it. You can change it from doing that in your settings.

TD #16 is very close to TS status

Quoting weaverwxman:
I do not understand how we can talk about Otto when we don't even have Nicole..
Just wondering

we may never have nicole and what is wrong with a little lively discussion about what might be next in the pipeline. Not a lot going on with td16 at the moment. May just bring rain to sfl and very little else.

View of the collapsed Harbour View Bridge

Image courtesy of the Jamaica observer. Photo by Nikki Hutchison.

Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Wonder if\how much the models will change based on a center relocation.

This graphic shows the interpolated version which includes the relocation.

I have not seen rain like this in jamaica in a long time all School are clsoed today there also a report of water spoust tounch down in Sav-la-mar distroying 4 house, seem wide spread flooding in jamaica today

Quoting Cayman2010:


Good morning Kman, StormWatcherCI and everyone else.

CIS is now as well - though as the decision was being based on the Governments decision on public schools they already had staff and some kids on site by the time the decision was made (including mine but her mums a teacher so I don't have to rush back from the office just yet).

GIS said all govt schools are closed but teachers had to report still. What a mess this is.

230 miles still from miami lol so it still has time to get a name

Hurricane hunters heading back in

Quoting mara0921:
I am in Oakland Park, FL in Broward County. So far steady moderate to occasionally heavy rain. No wind to speak of so far. It looks like the actual weather with this system is mostly past us and we have one more blob of rain to go through, which is supposed to be the worst of it and then its over.

I wouldn't say that at all. A lot depends on what the system does, of course, but the vast bulk of the system hasn't even reach Florida yet. Folks on the extreme east coast--such as you in OP--may be in for an all-day, all-night on-and-off rain event, with many more inches to come.

For what it's worth, a few isolated areas in south Florida have already received abnormal amounts of rain based on radar estimates. Key Largo, the northern tip of Lake Okeechobee, coastal Palm Beach...all of these have seen 8" to 10". (Meanwhile, here in Naples, we got some strong frontal showers yesterday, but only a few quick sprinkles this morning. In fact, at times the western sky has been clear and blue.)

The CDO, such as it is, is very slowly spreading west, remember shear is supposed to relax for 12 hours before picking up again.

If the center relocates further south, near the ring of convection, it will become a lot more organized.

Is it likely? I dont know.

Quoting divdog:
we may never have nicole and what is wrong with a little lively discussion about what might be next in the pipeline. Not a lot going on with td16 at the moment. May just bring rain to sfl and very little else.

Here's an "obviousity" for ya.
There won't be an "Otto" without a "Nicole".

divdog,

my bad. I see his point. can not go to letter O unless Nicole has formed. Well, if Nicole forms, then I assume the yellow circle in the atlantic is soon to be otto or nicole (if TD 16 is not upgraded)

Otto (if this is the name) looks to take a similar path as TD 16 maybe a bit westward

Cayman Brac pressure up to 996.5 and rising... from 994.5 earlier. Still raining, winds around 20 mph with higher gusts.

I have cabin fever already, but at least the cat is finally resolved to staying inside.

internet keeps going out. joy.

Here are two Caribbean waves that we REALLY need to watch: