Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.

Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.

Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)

Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.

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301. StormFreakyisher 8:51 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Eeek!!The storm is projected to come right over my house right on the letter "S" in Boca Raton.How strong is it expected to be by that time? Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684

302. Hurricanes101 8:51 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
someone before said this storm was moving quickly not sure what they are seeing, seems to me it is slowing down Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

303. weatherguy03 8:51 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Afternoon Tropical Update Sept. 28th. 2010 Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

304. seflagamma 8:51 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
right now local news Ch 7 are predicting winds guest of only 40 mph tomorrow when Nicole makes it thru here.. rain event not wind event.. but the wind is sure getting nasty out there now.. may go close my shutters!! ROFL Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40484

305. AnneBytheSea 8:51 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting FSUCOOPman: They must not be watching the blog... :-P I can't tell the rain and wind were blowing too hard...... Member Since: August 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 24

306. RobbWilder 8:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Its2Humid: Still have my Blue Jays and Dove coming in the backyard. Am located out in west Broward (Plantation) My Bluejays were just squaking for peanuts and I had to chase Blackbird/Greckels out of my orange trees. They have ruined my oranges again. It has currently started raining here. Oh Im in Sunrise BTW. Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 154

309. weatherblog 8:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
I heard that Broward County schools are officially going to be open tomorrow. Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

310. CosmicEvents 8:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting kwgirl: ROFLMAO!!! His spelling has been bothering me allll day but I didn't want to say anything. Great comment. Be careful.....both the L and the A in there are frowned upon by some....... . . . I see a cloud.....moving WEST!!!! Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5098

311. AllStar17 8:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: Recon hinted at the possibility there might be two centers. One south of Cuba and one to the east of the Cayman islands. Agree. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

312. bwi 8:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
HPC's 5-day precipitation totals are quite a bit higher along the east coast in this afternoon's map than in the morning map Dr. Masters has in the blog above. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1134

313. reedzone 8:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
000 WTNT21 KNHC 282051 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 2100 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA * THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS * JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY * THE FLORIDA KEYS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA * NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 82.4W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 82.4W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 82.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.0N 81.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.4N 80.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 82.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

316. Hurricanes101 8:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting reedzone: 000 WTNT21 KNHC 281451 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 1500 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES FROM MANTANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA * THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS * JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY * THE FLORIDA KEYS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA * NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 82.5W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 82.5W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 82.8W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.6N 81.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.5N 80.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 82.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH why did you post the 11am? Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

318. chrisdscane 8:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
as of 5pm still a TD

319. NRAamy 8:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Cosmic... I L at your A all the time..... ;) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

320. robert88 8:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Fighting vorticities = no strengthening. The flooding in FL and especially in the Carolinas will be the big story. Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 877

321. Seastep 8:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Center starting to cover itself. Will be a TS by tonight, imo. Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

322. kmanislander 8:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting chrisdscane: hmmmmmmmm I have been saying all afternoon that the HH needed to look closer to Grand Cayman. Pressure here has been indentical or lower than what they have been finding to our NW where the TD is supposed to be centered. Local pressure now is 997.6 mbs. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

323. victoriahurricane 8:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting bwi: HPC's 5-day precipitation totals are quite a bit higher along the east coast in this afternoon's map than in the morning map Dr. Masters has in the blog above. That's going to cause a lot of problems. Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544

324. reedzone 8:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: why did you post the 11am? Dang the thing said 2100.. thought that was 5 Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

325. Clearwater1 8:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting AllStar17: Agree. Sure looks like a spin, coc to the south of Cuba, Isle of Youth (visible satellite) Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1502

326. gordydunnot 8:55 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Buoy reading 42056 19.8 n 85.ow bp 29.49 falling rapidly n wind. Station at 19.7 n 80w bp 29.5 falling s wind center should be right in between. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

330. victoriahurricane 8:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Convection albeit light is now surrounding the entire center except the west and southwest now. east, north and south all have convection, soon-to-be Nicole is growing more and more organized. Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544

331. reedzone 8:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
NHC not buying the western shift on the models yet, only shifted slightly left. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

332. mbjjm 8:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
The second center sw of Jamaica has the stronger winds,but slightly higher pressure. Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310

333. CosmicEvents 8:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting NRAamy: Cosmic... I L at your A all the time..... ;) ty Amy....likewise I'm sure. btw...you have me on the bad list on your blog for a previous misunderstanding that I apologize for. . . . I see a cloud...moving WEST!!!! Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5098

334. Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology (Admin) 8:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan: Hurricane Haven was excellent today, as usual, but Dr. Masters made one slight factual error when he stated that no major hurricane had ever struck Texas after September 30th; the 1949 Texas Hurricane made landfall near Freeport as a Cat 4 on October 3rd of that year. Just so you north coasters know that you're not completely out of the woods yet... ;-) Thanks for posting this! I had not done a thorough search of late-season major hurricanes in Texas myself, and was relying on what another hurricane scientist had told me. Jeff Masters

336. GTcooliebai 8:57 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Notice the piece of energy off the west coast of florida, that may be the reason why the models have shifted left and will draw it more North into the SW coast of florida. Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5170

337. GoCanes99 8:57 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
New discussion just released by NHC. Member Since: November 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

338. gordydunnot 8:57 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
There is more than one center maybe that's the delay on the vortex message. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

340. victoriahurricane 8:58 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
20:43:30Z 17.717N 79.333W 975.8 mb (~ 28.82 inHg) 223 meters (~ 732 feet) 1000.6 mb (~ 29.55 inHg) - From 218° at 35 knots (From the SW at ~ 40.2 mph) 26.0°C (~ 78.8°F) 22.7°C (~ 72.9°F) 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph) 20:44:00Z 17.700N 79.300W 976.8 mb (~ 28.84 inHg) 213 meters (~ 699 feet) 1000.6 mb (~ 29.55 inHg) - From 219° at 35 knots (From the SW at ~ 40.2 mph) 26.0°C (~ 78.8°F) 22.8°C (~ 73.0°F) 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph) Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544

341. StuartLurker 8:58 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting TreasureCoastFl: Oh? My apologies. I am not nearly as knowledgeable as any of you with this stuff. LOL..Hey TC..ya gotta be careful about what ya say and who ya say it to in here....otherwise ya might just get spanked. Must be the barometric pressure causing all the irritability..lol ;) Member Since: September 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 29

343. BoyntonBeachFL 8:59 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Notice this was added at 5 p.m. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TONIGHT. Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 137

344. MarathonZiggy 8:59 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
After reading the 5PM discussion, I'll stand on my earlier reasoning that the trough will preclude this TC from amounting to anything but a rain maker for the Bahama's & a little windier for S Fla in the near future. Post Tropical is a whole different story though. Member Since: September 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 26

345. reedzone 8:59 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

347. kmanislander 9:00 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
I find it somewhat amusing that the surface pressure at Grand Cayman is lower than the pressure where the center of TD16 is. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

348. Patrap 9:00 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
000 WTNT31 KNHC 282052 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY SO FAR... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 82.4W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA * THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS * JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY * THE FLORIDA KEYS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA * NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297

349. GTcooliebai 9:00 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Link sorry image not working on mozilla. Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5170

350. NRAamy 9:00 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
I'll fix it, Cosmic..... :) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

351. RiverSteve 9:00 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: So what's it like to sit at the adults table? Nothin' but love? I don't know when you last sat at "The adults table" at Thanksgiving, but it wasn't an exchange of info, learning about weather or the like was it? I always thought the kids had more fun and didn't have to listen to the relatives who liked to hear themselves talk. The only thing I learned was not helpful in the real world. I'm not sticking up for the troll, and I'm not picking on you. But is it possible to have fun AND learn about weather? +10 Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 54

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