Drought in China adds pressure to world food prices
The soil lies cracked and broken in China's Shangdong Province, thirsting for rains that will not come. China's key wheat producing region, lying just south of Beijing, has received just 12 millimeters (1/2 inch) of rain since September, according to the Chinese news service Xinhua. If no rains come during the remainder of February, it could become the worst drought in 200 years. The latest precipitation forecast from the GFS ensemble model predicts the possibility of rains of around 1/2 inch for Shandong Province early next week, but these rains would help only a little. A longer-range 2-week forecast from the operational GFS model shows little or no rain for the region from late next week well into March. Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) projects that spring in Eastern China has an enhanced probability of being dry, with only a 20% - 25% chance that the region will see above average precipitation, and a 40% - 45% chance of below average precipitation. So the great drought will likely continue, and China's ability to feed itself may be greatly challenged this year.
Figure 1. A dried cornfield in a mountainous area of Jinan, capital of east China's Shandong Province, Jan. 18, 2011. Image credit: Xinhua/Zhu Zheng.
Figure 2. Drought conditions in China's Shandong Province this February have reached the "Severe" category. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.
Impact on global food supplies and food prices
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the drought in north China seems to be putting pressure on wheat prices, which have been rising rapidly in the past few months. This has helped push global food prices to their highest levels since the FAO Food Price Index was created in 1990 (Figure 3.) China is the world's largest producer of wheat, and if they are forced to import large amounts of food due to continued drought, it could severely impact world food prices. However, the FAO's regional representative for Asia and the Pacific said in an interview with Reuters last month that the situation is not as severe as in 2008, when global food riots erupted. "In general, the supply/demand situation of food grains has become very tight at the moment but enough stocks means there is no cause for alarm," Konuma said. "We still maintain sufficient stocks, which is about 25 percent of annual production. As long as there are sufficient stocks, that means the world has enough food still to feed the people." However, he said that if food stocks continued to decline over the next few years, there would be cause for concern.
The record food global food prices have been partially driven by two other huge weather disasters, the Russian summer heat wave and drought of 2010, and the Australian floods of December - January 2011. Both Russia and Australia are major exporters of grain. Russia issued a ban last summer on grain exports because of their drought, which slashed the wheat harvest by 40% and damaged soils to such an extent that 10% of Russian wheat fields could not be planted this year. The Russian heat wave of 2010 is now estimated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters to be the deadliest in human history, with 55,736 deaths. The Australian floods caused at least $1.7 billion in agricultural damage, reducing their wheat crop significantly. Fortunately, bumper crops were harvested in non-flooded areas of Australia, and the winter crop harvest in country was up 19% over the previous year's crop, and was the biggest since 2003 - 2004. Australia has been struggling with severe drought in recent years that caused more agricultural damage than the floods did.
Figure 3. The global price of food between 1990 - January 2011, as measured by the U.N.'s FAO Food Price Index. The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of price indices for Cereals, Oils and Fats, Sugar, Dairy, and Meat, weighted by the average export shares of each group. Food prices between 2002 - 2004 are given a benchmark value of "100". Global food prices in January 2011 were the highest since the FAO Index was established in 1990. Image credit: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Drought outlook for Northern Hemisphere summer of 2011
The spike in global food prices this winter raises the concern that a severe drought in a major grain producing region in North America, Europe, or Asia this summer could severely impact grain supplies and food prices. Fortunately, with La Niña conditions over the Eastern Pacific weakening, and possibly abating by summer, the chances for such a drought are lower than they would have been if La Niña were to stay strong into the summer. The latest precipitation forecast from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Figure 4) shows few areas of drought concern for the coming Northern Hemisphere summer. However, our skill at predicting drought months in advance is limited. For example, IRI's February 2010 forecast of precipitation for the summer of 2010 did not highlight Russia as an area of possible concern for drought, and Russia ended up having one of its worst droughts in history. IRI did highlight the Amazon as a region likely to have below-average summer rains, though, and the Amazon ended up having a 100-year drought last summer.
Figure 4. Global precipitation forecast for June, July and August of 2011, made in February 2011. Only a few scattered regions of the globe are predicted to have above-average chances of drought (yellow colors.) These areas include the Northwest U.S., Southern Brazil, and Northwest China. Image credit: International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Commentary
The recent unrest in the Middle East, which has been attributed, in part, to high food prices, gives us a warning of the type of global unrest that might result in future years if the climate continues to warm as expected. A hotter climate means more severe droughts will occur. We can expect an increasing number of unprecedented heat waves and droughts like the 2010 Russian drought in coming decades. This will significantly increase the odds of a world food emergency far worse than the 2007 - 2008 global food crisis. When we also consider the world's expanding population and the possibility that peak oil will make fertilizers and agriculture much more expensive, we have the potential for a perfect storm of events aligning in the near future, with droughts made significantly worse by climate change contributing to events that will cause disruption of the global economy, intense political turmoil, and war.
I will be doing another post on Thursday or Friday.
The New York Times' Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth Blog has a more in-depth look at the food and climate change issue that I recommend.
Jeff Masters
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The recent unrest in the Middle East, which has been attributed, in part, to high food prices, gives us a warning of the type of global unrest that might result in future years if the climate continues to warm as expected. A hotter climate means more severe droughts will occur. We can expect an increasing number of unprecedented heat waves and droughts like the 2010 Russian drought in coming decades. This will significantly increase the odds of a world food emergency far worse than the 2007 - 2008 global food crisis. When we also consider the world's expanding population and the possibility that peak oil will make fertilizers and agriculture much more expensive, we have the potential for a perfect storm of events aligning in the near future, with droughts made significantly worse by climate change contributing to events that will cause disruption of the global economy, intense political turmoil, and war.
Here,here,,and Kudos for speaking it as the realist see it Dr. Masters
ScienceDaily (Feb. 22, 2011) — Climate change is already having an effect on the safety of the world's food supplies and unless action is taken it's only going to get worse, a Michigan State University professor told a symposium at this year's meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Ewen Todd, an MSU professor of advertising, public relations and retailing, organized a session titled "How Climate Change Affects the Safety of the World's Food Supply" at which several nationally known experts warned that food safety is already an issue and will worsen unless climate change is confronted.
"Accelerating climate change is inevitable with implications for animal products and crops," said Todd, who also is an AAAS Fellow. "At this point, the effects of climate change on food safety are poorly understood."
However, Todd said there are already a number of examples of climate change taking its toll on the world's food supply. One is Vibrio, a pathogen typically found in warm ocean water which is now becoming more common in the north as water temperatures rise.
"It's been moving further up the coast these past few years," he said. "There was an outbreak of it near Alaska in 2005 when water temperature reached 15 degrees Celsius."
Todd also said that extreme weather -- droughts and heavy rains -- is having an impact on the world's food supply. In some areas crops are being wiped out, resulting in higher prices and other issues.
"Mycotoxins are molds that can sometimes cause illness in humans, and where you have drought and starvation there can be a mycotoxin problem," he said. "That's because people will store their meager resources of crops for longer than they should."
Speakers at the symposium included Raymond Knighton of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Institute of Food and Agriculture; Sandra Hoffman of the USDA's Economic Research Service; and Cristina Tirado from the University of California, Los Angeles.
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we have the potential for a perfect storm of events aligning in the near future, that will cause disruption of the global economy, intense political turmoil, and war.
Tue Feb 22, 11:30 pm ET
CHRISTCHURCH (AFP) - A 30 million tonne block of ice sheared off a New Zealand glacier just minutes after a violent earthquake devastated the city of Christchurch, officials said Wednesday.
The huge iceberg crashed into a lake shortly after the 6.3 magnitude tremor rocked the South Island on Tuesday and created waves up to three metres high for 30 minutes which rocked two sightseeing boats on the lake at the time.
The enormous iceberg -- estimated to weigh 30 to 40 million tonnes -- began ripping off the Tasman Glacier at Aoraki Mount Cook National Park accompanied by a loud noise which sounded like a rifle shot, a local tourism official said.
Link
I will particularly ignore though, all scientists who disagree, I will try and pretend in my arrogance that there is some sort of overwhelming agreement that my essay is accurate, I will deny the voice of other scientists, and call those scientists deniers at the expense of my dogma. I will continue to shove my beliefs down others throats, yet I will get mad at anyone who mentions God around me to get their religion out of my face.
I am an open minded progressive person, I believe all GW supporters and supporters of liberal theology should have all rights. But all other people, not just republicans, but included balanced moderates, do not deserve to have their voices heard, and do not deserve to voice their scientific viewpoints. I do this because I know I am severely biased, so I pretend to be a supporter of rights, but only if they agree with me. That is because whenever someone else voices there look on things, it bothers my conscience how deceitful I am.
Long live the man-caused GW theory! It reigns supreme!
science is the word used to describe a search for information that correlates with reality. it is a procedural guideline to verification, the result being such that information believed in then lines up with the reality observed and unfolding on a daily basis.
science is not something tangible. it is not an idol. it is not an 'it' ironically. only people who have embraced the belief in a Creator are the ones who have these misconceptions. they have a belief in an entity that is both tangible and intangible. they have a conceptual basis for idolization and worship that defines their full knowledge base and conceptual understanding. to the believer, the questions and the answers are one in the same.
but this is not science. science cannot be worshiped. science is not an answer. it is a process to reconciling that which is information and that which is observation. the only reason this is not understood, and frequently mislabeled by religious people is that they have accepted an ultimate source of information that needs no reconciliation with observation.
simply put, they simply don't have the mental ability to comprehend that science is a process, not a religion. therefore, it is well within their comfort zone to make false statements that cannot be supported because their entire belief system is faith based. faith is belief without support. that is the very definition of faith, and why you need faith to have faith. but faith is not knowledge... get it??!
Well, as they say, it's an estimate (30-40 metric tons), and it is based on the length, width, and height of the chunk of ice that sloughed off. (A metric ton is roughly the weight of one cubic meter of cold water, so it's not too difficult to get a rough idea of overall mass.)
I didn't catch that...
That's very disrespectful, and wrong.
Texas doesn't have the right to secede, despite what "Moneybags" Perry may think
i can get behind this statement SAINTHURRIFAN. but for the record, Einstein did not split the atom... it was only the applicability of his relativity theory that enabled other scientists to discover such a feat ;)
your point remains though.
hmm I only responded in that way to get a laugh? Maybe I can be too much of a clown sometimes.
True--but I say let 'em go if they really want; I have a well-worn passport that I'm certain would be honored for purposes of visiting my many family members in the Nation of Texastan. ;-)
So far as "debating" certain people here, I won't waste my time right now; I try to engage only those interested in discussing things honestly and openly, not people who have an unmovable political or religious ideology they feel needs defending. Instead, I'll just leave with the following undeniable facts:
1) The planet is warming rapidly.
2) That rapid warming is due primarily to increasing concentrations of CO2.
3) Those increasing concentrations of CO2 are due primarily to unimpeded burning of fossil fuels.
I'm still waiting for one single shred of legitimate and credible evidence that refutes any one of those three.
Ah, well...
Texas has 10 winds farms, including the world's largest, The Roscoe Wind Farm.
It takes more faith to not believe in God then it does to believe in God, science itself in its complexity reflects the beauty and nature of God. The more I study and pursue science the more it moves me to glorify God.
To clarify, I am not not knocking science, or its processes. I have been obsessed with science all my life. In fact I don't think enough Christians are educated enough about science or the Bible, so they then think science is somehow an enemy of the Bible. That's hardly the case. The Bible was written for man to understand as well as to seek God to live for God. The Bible is on purposely very general about scientific things, because it is not written about science. Therefore fore some creationists to say the Bible says the earth is 6000 years old and God created the earth in 6 days really isn't sound. The Bible says that a day is a thousand years and a thousand years is a day. That terminology is there because the creation in 6 days is left open to many possibilities. I choose to have an open mind and not even oppose evolution its sense. The only thing the Bible says is that man is set apart from other Creation on earth, made in Gods image.
Science is left for us to pursue and explore. Einstein had a hard time imagining God to be a personal God the way I believe, but he was very much upset with people who said he was an atheist.
Whether or not he ever came to look at God the way I do, he certainly had his mind open enough to see there is something awesome behind this vast and complex world we know as science. Science really cannot be used as a way of disproving God, when it reflects the awesome nature of God.
I don't use this to be militant against you are anything, just clarifying where I come from.
haha I love to laugh when that happens with forecasts, maybe I shouldn't laugh or that may happen a lot to me one day when my job calls for judgment calls on forecasts(YIKES!)
the storm that dropped the world record hailstone, those ranchers must have been freakin' out!
Remember to get a desk with a window seat :)
Texas has around 29 winds farms, including the world's largest, The Roscoe Wind Farm.
Check out these new solar carports. Create jobs, cool down parking lots, depend less on foreign oil & etc. The benefits for driving electric are far reaching if we can just get out of this oil pit..
hahaha good point!
Oh I will if I can! I would try and make sure I could have a clear view of the sky as well.
I wonder if they allow meteorologists to take "observation breaks", cause I would be out getting my job clothes wet :)
When we get stormy days here in Central Florida, especially strong thunderstorm days, I always run between the computer, and looking outside, everyone always gets mad and says "make up your mind and stay with one, either outside or the radar".
I try and get as much of both as possible!
i wholeheartedly disagree, and that statement reminds me a lot of the mindset that argues for 'intelligent design' as a precursor to evolution; particularly the debate of irreducibly complex systems.
you need to believe in a God first to think such a thought. it is only when at the beginning of all questioning one states 'there was a creator', that upon viewing the complexities and beauty of nature would one say those observations further the idea that there was a creator. i do not believe there was (or is), and the more i view the magnificence of this universe, the less i see there being a creator.
i think the avenue to qualifying perception has a split in the road. one path follows an idea that human's can fully comprehend this reality by their own lenses; the other path follows an idea that our lenses are skewed and reality is beyond our natural comprehension. religion follows the path where we define through the human lens, that which is all around us. science follows the path that says we need external verification to define all that is around us.
to observe with the assistance of mechanical magnifications, complex computations, and theory testing, a very different universe unfolds from the version we observed thousands of years ago. if you've never once believed in a god, there is no element in the sources of information from such assisted observations that says there is one. you have to believe first to think that way Jed.
i can see how, after fully embracing that a Creator is behind all this, it would take an act of faith to think otherwise. well, that's why there will continue to be strife between the science and religion.
Soylent Green....
(a meteorologist with a basement office)
:)
LOL
Sorry Orca, I am as sick of winter as you are.
The DFW, TX was hammered by 3 Arctic weather systems is 10 days, the worst since 1987.
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