Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2011

The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.

Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Questionable Building Site! (Nikongranny)

From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."

Monument Fire, Tuesday (paperbag)

The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.

a small funnel (nnotof)

a small funnel

Categories: Tornado Flood Hurricane

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751. cchsweatherman 1:59 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Quoting Levi32: One of the stronger MJO signals I've seen over the Atlantic on this particular model: Very impressive. Based on the model, it would definitely give rise to significant moistening of the Caribbean and Atlantic as well as reducing wind shear across the basin. Not for sure yet, but something to definitely watch in the coming days and weeks. Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

752. barbamz 2:01 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Ocean life on the brink of mass extinctions: study (Reuters) - Life in the oceans is at imminent risk of the worst spate of extinctions in millions of years due to threats such as climate change and over-fishing, a study showed on Tuesday. Time was running short to counter hazards such as a collapse of coral reefs or a spread of low-oxygen "dead zones," according to the study led by the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO). "We now face losing marine species and entire marine ecosystems, such as coral reefs, within a single generation," according to the study by 27 experts to be presented to the United Nations. "Unless action is taken now, the consequences of our activities are at a high risk of causing, through the combined effects of climate change, over-exploitation, pollution and habitat loss, the next globally significant extinction event in the ocean," it said. Scientists list five mass extinctions over 600 million years -- most recently when the dinosaurs vanished 65 million years ago, apparently after an asteroid struck. Among others, the Permian period abruptly ended 250 million years ago. "The findings are shocking," Alex Rogers, scientific director of IPSO, wrote of the conclusions from a 2011 workshop of ocean experts staged by IPSO and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) at Oxford University. Fish are the main source of protein for a fifth of the world's population and the seas cycle oxygen and help absorb carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas from human activities. OXYGEN Jelle Bijma, of the Alfred Wegener Institute, said the seas faced a "deadly trio" of threats of higher temperatures, acidification and lack of oxygen, known as anoxia, that had featured in several past mass extinctions. A build-up of carbon dioxide, blamed by the U.N. panel of climate scientists on human use of fossil fuels, is heating the planet. Absorbed into the oceans, it causes acidification, while run-off of fertilizers and pollution stokes anoxia. "From a geological point of view, mass extinctions happen overnight, but on human timescales we may not realize that we are in the middle of such an event," Bijma wrote. The study said that over-fishing is the easiest for governments to reverse -- countering global warming means a shift from fossil fuels, for instance, toward cleaner energies such as wind and solar power. "Unlike climate change, it can be directly, immediately and effectively tackled by policy change," said William Cheung of the University of East Anglia. "Over-fishing is now estimated to account for over 60 percent of the known local and global extinction of marine fishes," he wrote. Among examples of over-fishing are the Chinese bahaba that can grow 2 meters long. Prices per kilo (2.2 lbs) for its swim bladder -- meant to have medicinal properties -- have risen from a few dollars in the 1930s to $20,000-$70,000. Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/21/us-ocea ns-idUSTRE75K1IY20110621 Nevertheless: Have a nice day, everyone! Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1614

753. twhcracker 2:03 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
i wonder how they collect data for the drought monitor maps. Because the last drought, in 2005 after Katrina, here in nw fla the drought was horrible and our area was dark red. but now its worse. and our area is just sorta light orange and the adjacent counties are darker red. how can a drought be suddenly better at the county line? And our sandhill ponds, which are windows to the floridan aquifer are way more dried up than in 2005. and the creek that is fed by multiple springs and sandhill ponds (the aquifer) (econfina) is the lowest i have seen it. ever. period. in fifty years. has sandbars in the middle. and the water management district just approved a 90 million gpd "relief well" for panama city. hmmmmmm. thank you st joe arvida for all you have done for us in nw fla. your legacy will be devastating to all for generations if not til the end of time. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

754. hydrus 2:07 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Almost looks like a winter system.. And the African wave.. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

755. atmoaggie 2:10 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
gasp Copious amounts of water falling from the sky a bit ago in Slidell. Why do I care? We are missing close to 20 inches in the last 6 months: Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

756. twhcracker 2:10 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
well even if you dont believe in global warming, you gotta admit things are weird! just tinfoil hat observation from me, the scientifically challenged :) lord just please send us some RAIN Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

757. cmahan 2:12 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Quoting Levi32: Good morning. Blog update: Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 21st, with Video Informative as always, Levi, thank you. Member Since: September 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 143

758. stillwaiting 2:12 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Floruda weather freak:I have been keeping a eye and have noticed this atleast 7 times over the last 2weeks,theirs often three distinct lines reflected by the radar,which is how the planes dispurse it it 3 lines,ive found chaff on the beach here on siesta key about 2 yrs ago,funny thing is the local news was lying calling it bleaches pieces of seagrass washing ashore,really????,thousands of pieces all the same size about 4 inches long!! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

759. kwgirl 2:12 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: I would like to bring to everyone's attention that yet again yesterday, large amounts of chaff (or some aerosol visible on radar) were dispersed over the gulf of mexico for the tenth time this month so far. I have seen this on radar occasionally over the past decade or so, but never as frequently as this past month. No one seems to question why this material is being released, and I would like to know what you other bloggers' opinions are. Maybe it is flocks of birds taking off. They look like chaff when that happens. Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530

760. cchsweatherman 2:14 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Quoting stillwaiting: Floruda weather freak:I have been keeping a eye and have noticed this atleast 7 times over the last 2weeks,theirs often three distinct lines reflected by the radar,which is how the planes dispurse it it 3 lines,ive found chaff on the beach here on siesta key about 2 yrs ago,funny thing is the local news was lying calling it bleaches pieces of seagrass washing ashore,really????,thousands of pieces all the same size about 4 inches long!! That wouldn't even be a plausible explanation since radar picks up on whats in the atmosphere, not at the surface unless at the very radar site. Love how the news thinks we're that mind-numbingly dumb. Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

761. twhcracker 2:16 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
if i found "chaff" like this I would take it to mu local usda ag office and have it analyzed, or the navy base or something. anything that is a mystery substance dispersed in huge amounts would be something i would want to know about? Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

762. RitaEvac 2:20 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Isn't chaff aluminum foil pieces? Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8912

763. atmoaggie 2:24 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Quoting twhcracker: well even if you dont believe in global warming, you gotta admit things are weird! just tinfoil hat observation from me, the scientifically challenged :) lord just please send us some RAIN At the very least, things are different, relative to 15 years ago...under very different regimes in our longer-term oceanic cycles. Ocean hold and transport most of the heat on the planet; they have huge sway over the behaviors of the atmosphere. Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

764. Minnemike 2:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Quoting twhcracker: if i found "chaff" like this I would take it to mu local usda ag office and have it analyzed, or the navy base or something. anything that is a mystery substance dispersed in huge amounts would be something i would want to know about? someone on here had a good bit of info to share on this, with some decent links.. think it was Skyepony if i recall correctly. the info stated it being thin aluminum foil perhaps? i would be VERY frustrated and unhappy if that stuff was being released near me, and infiltrating my environment. even if it's supposed to be harmless, it still pollutes and degrades the quality of an environment in my opinion.... stepping off soapbox now Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1257

765. RitaEvac 2:30 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Effect of Navy chaff release on aluminum levels in an area of the Chesapeake Bay. Abstract The U.S. Navy uses aluminized glass chaff as a passive countermeasure for radar-guided threats to aircraft and surface ships. Over the last 25 years, several hundred thousand pounds of aluminized chaff have been released during flight operations over a training area on the Chesapeake Bay. There is concern that these releases have resulted in the accumulation of significant amounts of aluminum in the soil and sediment of this training area. This study compares the exchangeable and monomeric aluminum content of sediment within the affected area with that of samples taken from outside the training area. We found a less than twofold increase in the content of organic monomeric aluminum in samples taken from the affected area versus background samples, whereas inorganic monomeric aluminum concentrations within the affected area were significantly lower than background. These results suggest that chaff releases have not resulted in a significant accumulation of aluminum in this training area. (c) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8912

766. PRweathercenter 2:36 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Good morning to all, I see all is quiet for the moment, but July Will he here soon. Didany one notice the cooling of the waters off the coast of guinea? That Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 58 Comments: 916

767. nrtiwlnvragn 2:38 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
OLD BLOG Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8943

768. atmoaggie 2:39 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
new blog Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

769. Jax82 2:40 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
NEW BLOG Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261

770. hydrus 2:42 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

771. TaylorSelseth 5:29 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Quoting Skyepony: That monster mid-country is just beginning to to tap the tropical moisture. Click pic to loop. It is certainly dumping tropically heavy rain in Fargo right now, it is POURING! Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 324

772. TaylorSelseth 5:43 PM GMT on June 21, 2011
Quoting Levi32: Good morning. Blog update: Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 21st, with Video Great and informative update, Levi. The cooling of the water south of West Africa is really concerning, though I'm sure folks in the Sahel are liking the rain. Oh, and wouldn't this help suppress the Saharan Air Layer? Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 324

774. Grothar 11:51 AM GMT on June 08, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

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