Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

This is UGLY!!!!

This bow echo in SD looks very strong, likely has 70mph + winds.
Link

Eppley Airfield in Omaha reported wind gust of 69mph. Worst went to the north of Cantore.

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory
for the following municipalities...

in Puerto Rico
Bayamon... Toa Alta... Vega Alta... Dorado... Manati... Vega Baja and
Toa Baja

* until 1215 am AST

* at 908 PM AST... Doppler radar estimated heavy rain in the advisory
area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move west along the
north central sections of Puerto Rico. These showers may produce
between 1 to 2 inches of rain before diminish or move away from the
warned area.

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown.


Lat... Lon 1852 6638 1843 6611 1835 6615 1848 6650


EM
Just one day. Just one. Without rain. But no.

Quoting PcolaDan:
This is UGLY!!!!

Nasty!
I've been lurking all day. And man, the weather in the US is getting nastier every day.

Goodnight.

Quoting PcolaDan:
This is UGLY!!!!

That line of storms looks very violent, probably micro burts to hurricane force, maybe 80 mph in isolated spots. At least 60 throughout the whole thing I would think.

Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
i do not like the red next to the east coast there.

this has been happening for a few weeks, nothing to worry about

Quoting alfabob:

I've been looking at that, but the outflow hasn't really reached it yet; although it would inhibit the formation of an anti-cyclone in the near future. Obviously anything in that area would need some time to develop though, just something to keep an eye on. CIMSS shows no vorticity what so ever, not a surprise.

Might be seeing this

a whole lot of nuttin in the tropiks

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0902 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SWRN MN...NERN NEB...WRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 526...

VALID 210202Z - 210300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 526 CONTINUES.

NWD-PROPAGATING PORTION OF 600 MILE LONG QLCS HAS BOWED ACROSS SERN
SD...WITH COMMA HEAD CENTERED OVER HUTCHINSON COUNTY. ALTHOUGH
CURRENT PROPAGATION WILL RESULT IN MOVEMENT INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH NRN EXTENT...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
DEVELOP N OF WW 526...AND MAY NECESSITATE A WFO WW EXTENSION.

FARTHER S...TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL AXIS JUST E OF BOWING SEGMENT THAT RECENTLY PASSED ALONG AND
N OF THE OMAHA METRO AREA WITH MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LYING S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT IN DES MOINES VWP
DATA...GREATEST RELATIVE DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD EVOLVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-80 TO US-20 CORRIDORS IN W-CNTRL IA.

..GRAMS.. 06/21/2011

Quoting RukusBoondocks:
a whole lot of nuttin in the tropiks

Well, cause it's June. Not much is gonna happen in June.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory
for the following municipalities...

in Puerto Rico
Bayamon... Toa Alta... Vega Alta... Dorado... Manati... Vega Baja and
Toa Baja

* until 1215 am AST

* at 908 PM AST... Doppler radar estimated heavy rain in the advisory
area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move west along the
north central sections of Puerto Rico. These showers may produce
between 1 to 2 inches of rain before diminish or move away from the
warned area.

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown.


Lat... Lon 1852 6638 1843 6611 1835 6615 1848 6650


EM
Just one day. Just one. Without rain. But no.

Well of course not. This rainy season start has been ridiculous.

Why do the dates on the blog say June 21st? Did I hit a time warp and miss today for some reason??

Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
here the low off the east coast!!

purely cold core, no development expected.

Quoting spayandneuter:
Why do the dates on the blog say June 21st? Did I hit a time warp and miss today for some reason??

You may not have set it to your time zone. Bet it says 02:30 UTC also for your post.

Quoting alfabob:

It was to the east of Yucatan but there are a lot of mid-level clouds mixed in with the low so it is difficult to tell. Could be a dissipating mid-level vorticity left over from t-storms, I just saw something spinning and winds were generally converging in that location. Beatriz on the other-hand looks at least like a cat 1 now, maybe getting near high-end cat 1.

Yep it is a High end Cat 1 atleast it is beening shown on this anyway

Link

u guys need rain in texas not tornadoes geez, poor guys can't get break at all down there.

Sorry looked at that wrong just over cat 1 on that scale but then again it does look alittle stronger could just be the convection wrap also

Quoting alfabob:

Wow that took off fast, 0z analysis also which was right before it expanded into it's current self; so if its based on imagery then it should be going higher on the next update.

Depends on how far inland it goes i just dont see it getting much stronger being that close to the land
Then again i was never very good at forcasting these things.

Quoting jasonweatherman2010:

Im sorry but that music needs to put with a much stronger storm like wilma or ivan.........

If you all didn't know, Hurricane Beatriz is affecting the Mexican coastline at this time. :)

...BEATRIZ BECOMES A HURRICANE...CENTER VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 18.0%uFFFDN 103.5%uFFFDW
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb

Should peak either here at 75 mph, or maybe 80 mph, but no Category 2 definitely.

The part where the guy sounds like he is gagging on somethng needs to have a mean looking eye wall showing not some weak tropical storm

iowa, nebraska, minnesota, south dakota that is some kinda front what a sin.I thought those types of convective systems only blossomed up from the day time heating boy was i wrong.If my neice ever saw a warning come up on the tv like that to grab pillows matreses etc she would be no good.She would probably pee her pants then you would have to physically pick her up and take her to the basement.I am stunned that wasn't there earlier today its just plain huge.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you all didn't know, Hurricane Beatriz is affecting the Mexican coastline at this time. :)

...BEATRIZ BECOMES A HURRICANE...CENTER VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 18.0�N 103.5�W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb

Yes it is, I know its pushing some water on the coast hope it don't get to bad for them even a cat 1 can cause damage depending on the Terran.

I'm calling it a night, later gators.

Quoting alfabob:
Where is the NHC pulling these #'s from? There is no way this is a borderline cat 1, watching it wrap that convection around on rainbow indicates at least a moderate to high cat 1. No way it only gained 5mph with that much structural improvement, it is physically impossible.

They recognized that the system is much better organized

Quoting RukusBoondocks:
a whole lot of nuttin in the tropiks

yep thats it nuttin
nuttin at all
move along
nuttin to see here

Second volcanic ash cloud forces Qantas, Jetstar, Virgin and Tiger flight cancellations in Sydney, Melbourne and across Australia


A VOLCANIC ash cloud from Chile is causing even more disruption on its second lap of the world with Australian airlines cancelling hundreds of flights in and out of Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide and Melbourne.

Denser and larger, the cloud has wrapped around a low pressure system moving across the country’s south-east posing a real safety risk for airline operation.

Jetstar and Virgin Australia have extended flight cancellations after morning risk assessment meetings and advice from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Jetstar will not fly in or out of Sydney and Newcastle from 3pm today and Virgin Australia has cancelled all Sydney and Melbourne services from 4pm.
Qantas has also suspended all of its Canberra flights from midday and Sydney from 3pm, in addition to all Adelaide services.

Travellers through Brisbane are urged to stay in touch with their airlines, with anticipated cancellations this afternoon.

International services to and from Sydney are currently under review.

QF1 from Sydney to Bangkok and London, QF5 from Sydney to Singapore and Frankfurt and QF31 from Sydney to Singapore and London will all depart from Sydney at 2.15pm today as planned.

Johannesburg destined services will operate with a refuelling stop in Perth and Buenos Aires services destined for Sydney may be subject to a refuelling stop in Papeete.

Tiger Airways, whose aircraft are currently hangared in Melbourne and Adelaide, is not flying at all today and will make a decision about tomorrow’s services later this afternoon.

Spokeswoman Vanessa Regan said they had taken the difficult decision not to fly any services in Australia today because of the ash cloud.

“Our risk assessment team has just finished its morning meeting and we’ve decided to cancel all services today. We sincerely regret any inconvenience to passengers but safety must come first,” said Ms Regan.

The impact of the ash cloud is expected to be even greater than last week, when flights to and from Melbourne and Hobart were disrupted and to a lesser extent those to Adelaide and Perth.
Bus company Greyhound Australia is cashing in on the aviation chaos, tripling the number of services running out of Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Canberra.

Chief Operating Officer Tony Hopkins said extra services will run from all affected areas until the ash plume passes.

“We have had an extraordinary amount of calls from people needing to travel so we have put extra services on,” Mr Hopkins said.

“We are monitoring the situation every 15 minutes and are putting on extra services to meet the demand.”

Airservices Australia is monitoring the new ash cloud, which it says has the potential to impact air travel in southeast Australia over the next 48 hours.

The latest Airservices Australia updates here.

The Puyehue volcano in Chile began erupting on 4 June and ash is now passing over Australia for a second time.

The new cloud is denser and larger than the cloud that halted Australian flights last week, and is expected to linger longer than its predecessor.

It is spread in a large band below Australia and is tipped to move to the northeast and east over the next few days, according to Airservices.

A Qantas spokesman said the airline put on five early flights before 6.30am and was trying to contact passengers last night.

"The Qantas approach to flying is a high standard of safety and we put safety before schedule," he said.

The head of the Bureau of Meteorology's Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) in Darwin , Andrew Tupper, said he expected the ash would cause disruption.

"It will obviously prevent aircraft flying at the altitude of the cloud . . . how they cope with that is their decision," he said.

"It's not like we have got masses of ash coming over to blanket the continent at lower levels. It is just a high level cloud that happens to be at an inconvenient level for flying."

Last week the ash cloud forced Qantas and Jetstar to cancel flights from Adelaide but Virgin continued to fly.

Virgin Group executive of operations Sean Donohue said the decision followed the latest advice from the VAAC.

"The current forecast suggests the ash plume will be below 20,000 feet over Adelaide and Mildura tomorrow. With this in mind we are suspending these services tomorrow," Mr Donohue said.

Adelaide Airport manager John McArdle said he did not expect international flights to be cancelled and the airport was doing its best to deal with the airlines' decisions.

"There is always room for improvement, but we learned some lessons from last time," he said.

An estimated 40,000 travellers in Australia were affected by the delays last week.

YOUR FLIGHTS AT A GLANCE

Qantas

All flights to and from Adelaide and Port Lincoln have been cancelled.

All flights to and from Canberra will be cancelled from 12pm (AEST).

All domestic flights to and from Sydney will be cancelled from 3pm.

The status of Melbourne flights still to be confirmed.



Jet Star

All flights to and from Adelaide have been cancelled.

All flights to and from Sydney and Newcastle will be cancelled from 3pm.

A flight between Melbourne to Perth at 1.45pm and a flight from Perth to Melbourne at 1.20pm (AWST) have both been cancelled.



Virgin Australia

All flights to and from Adelaide and Mildura have been cancelled.

All flights to and from Sydney and Melbourne will be cancelled from 4pm.

Flights cancelled to and from NSW regional centres of Newcastle, Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour.

Tiger Airways

No flights



It's going to be a quiet night here in Sydney, No air traffic at all. Only flights out will be selected international flights. Sydney is one of the most busiest airports in the southern hemisphere. Melbourne is a close 2nd.

Whats the chances of Beatriz or her remnants making it to the BOC? Could the moisture from Beatriz give Tx a good soaking?

Quoting sunlinepr:

The storm has gone Rasta. (580) And Beatriz is in the psychedelic phase. (585)

02E has already made landfall or will do so very soon

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST June 21 2011
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 11.0N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

02E/H/B/C1
NEAR LANDFALL
MARK
18.51N/104.5W

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST June 21 2011
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 11.0N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Can't believe that's still around, it's one ugly TD.

Quoting alfabob:

I would say that the chances are very slim, mountains and whatnot would make it difficult for the convection to make it that far.

From that image i can see the outflow is already in the BOC/W GOM