95L drenching the Keys, could develop into a tropical depression
A large low pressure system centered about 100 miles north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, Invest 95L, is bringing heavy rains to Western Cuba and South Florida. Rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches have been common across South Florida since Saturday; Miami has picked up 3.40" as of 10 am EDT this morning, and Key West Naval Air Facility recorded 9.72". Rains of 5 - 8 inches have fallen over much of the Florida Keys and Central Cuba since Sunday, according to radar rainfall estimates from the Key West Radar. Long-range radar out of Key West shows rain is affecting most of South Florida south of Fort Myers, but there is no obvious spin to the echoes, and no evidence of organized spiral bands forming. Satellite loops show that 95L has a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in areal coverage. There is no evidence of a well-formed surface circulation trying to develop, though surface observations in the Western Caribbean do show that 95L has a broad counter-clockwise circulation. Two ships to the north of 95L's center measured sustained winds in excess of 30 mph this morning, but no land stations are reporting sustained winds over 30 mph. Water temperatures over the regions are near 29°C, which is plenty warm to support a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 95L.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending 8 am Saturday October 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Wind shear over 95L is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range through Tuesday night. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and has scheduled a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the system this afternoon at 2 pm EDT. The models are generally showing only weak development of 95L. The storm is currently moving north at 5 - 10 mph, but should turn to the northeast by Tuesday afternoon, as it gets caught up by an approaching trough of low pressure. This trough should pull 95L into the west coast of Florida on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning between Fort Myers and St. Marks. Portions of southwest Florida could receive up to 5 inches of rain from 95L; locations to the north of Tampa will less rain, due to the large amount of dry air over the northern Gulf of Mexico that will affect the northwestern portion of the storm. Once 95L meets up with the trough, wind shear will rise sharply, and it is unlikely 95L will be able to grow any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm before landfall occurs. It is more likely that 95L will have top winds of 35 - 45 mph Tuesday night near the time of landfall.
Another area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Atlantic, 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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thats a large area between Fort myers and St Marks
I did hear them say on the TV this morning there is still a great deal of uncertainty of where it exactly will hit Florida.
Is it probable that this storm is lopsided to the east & southeast, and that means most of the wind and raid will be over South Fla, even if the actual center goes in more like St Pete or Ft Meyers ?
I am guessing no shutters put down for this one right ?
Heaviest activity is always in the front right quadrant. A storm heading NE would mean the heaviest activity would be in the SE quadrant.
There is always the threat of tornadoes with any landfalling tropical system.
Due to the limited time over water, I don't think you'll need to put down your shutters.
The worst of the weather should stay on the east side of the system, and typically the right side of an approaching storm (moving to the north) is the strongest side.
Many post in the previous blog about that feature. It's just a low level swirl and not the LLC.
it has always been east. The strongest coc is near 86W
I am in Tampa, Fl and have a question. For the system that is headed our way, is it supposed to make landfall during the day tomorrow or tomorrow night?
Im just trying to figure out if I should send my son to school tomorrow and go to work. I know this isn't a major storm or anythign but our area gets kind of flooded just from normal summer storms. I don't want to be caught out in the mess.
Thanks!!!
That's why it's better to say front right because N and NE only applies to a storm heading west. This is true because the leading edge is relative to the direction of storm travel as the low is always spinning counter-clockwise.
late tomorrow nite or early wed morn
Thank you!
welcome
My comp crashed a month ago and just got back on. Did I miss something?
Link
there is no 11:00 update
because there isnt one
he can get banned from posting that crap
if is a weak system I think it depends also on wind shear factor. for example in this case of 95L the wind shear is mostly from west to east so the heaviest part is on east and that's why we see naked swirls and convection east or well east or northeast of the center.
(9:50 am CDT)
1450 GMT on 10/17/2011
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 106 deg true )
Almost Tropical Storm force winds now and this bouy is a ways away from the center
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