95L drenching the Keys, could develop into a tropical depression
A large low pressure system centered about 100 miles north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, Invest 95L, is bringing heavy rains to Western Cuba and South Florida. Rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches have been common across South Florida since Saturday; Miami has picked up 3.40" as of 10 am EDT this morning, and Key West Naval Air Facility recorded 9.72". Rains of 5 - 8 inches have fallen over much of the Florida Keys and Central Cuba since Sunday, according to radar rainfall estimates from the Key West Radar. Long-range radar out of Key West shows rain is affecting most of South Florida south of Fort Myers, but there is no obvious spin to the echoes, and no evidence of organized spiral bands forming. Satellite loops show that 95L has a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in areal coverage. There is no evidence of a well-formed surface circulation trying to develop, though surface observations in the Western Caribbean do show that 95L has a broad counter-clockwise circulation. Two ships to the north of 95L's center measured sustained winds in excess of 30 mph this morning, but no land stations are reporting sustained winds over 30 mph. Water temperatures over the regions are near 29°C, which is plenty warm to support a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 95L.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending 8 am Saturday October 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Wind shear over 95L is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range through Tuesday night. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and has scheduled a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the system this afternoon at 2 pm EDT. The models are generally showing only weak development of 95L. The storm is currently moving north at 5 - 10 mph, but should turn to the northeast by Tuesday afternoon, as it gets caught up by an approaching trough of low pressure. This trough should pull 95L into the west coast of Florida on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning between Fort Myers and St. Marks. Portions of southwest Florida could receive up to 5 inches of rain from 95L; locations to the north of Tampa will less rain, due to the large amount of dry air over the northern Gulf of Mexico that will affect the northwestern portion of the storm. Once 95L meets up with the trough, wind shear will rise sharply, and it is unlikely 95L will be able to grow any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm before landfall occurs. It is more likely that 95L will have top winds of 35 - 45 mph Tuesday night near the time of landfall.
Another area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Atlantic, 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 — Blog Index
Take me to the 40's lol :)
New Discovery show: "Swirl chasers"
... may have a market audience here.
You want my weather -- Highs in the mid to upper 60s during the day, and lows in the low to mid 40s overnight.
There was, but the NHC cancelled all flights.
Perfection :) (Seriously)
I don't think anything organized is gonna form under that. The low is too broad, too much shear. What'll be interesting is to see how this interacts with the trough tomorrow.
El salvador have historic rainfall never record guatemala is having a lot of problems also here in Honduras the rains have been worse in the south and the death toll stand at 14 and rising and in nicaragua and costa rica also report rainfall
Raining lightly outside here right now..
I was looking at the Amarillo NWS page a few hours ago and saw that. Deep, long-lasting drought and 40 mile per hour winds will do that, I suppose. That's okay; those farmers don't need topsoil anyway... :-\
Please excuse this stupid question but I dont know to much about this stuff. Why does it looks like its going backwards in the loop you posted?
It was only a week or so ago that we had another dust storm... I think it was in Colorado, west Kansas, and maybe parts of Nebraska.
T&T
FURTHER RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW; CARONI RIVER
REMAINS SWOLLEN
Reports reaching The Trinidad and Tobago
Meteorological Service indicate that, though
subsiding, the water levels of our main water
basins, in particular the Caroni River, still
remain relatively high.
The grounds remain saturated and further rainfall
is forecast tomorrow as the axis of the Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is positioned
just south of Trinidad. Rainfall accumulations of
anywhere between 20 - 40 millimetres is possible
tomorrow and can further exacerbate already
inundated river courses.
The major Caroni River is reported to have
over-spilled in areas of St. Helena, St.
Augustine, Bamboo and Valsayn.
ohey.
AL, 95, 2011101800, , BEST, 0, 216N, 891W, 30, 1003, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 240, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
hey mang
What's a mang? XD
Guess the 95L excitement has gone.... just a bunch of foul-weather bloggers we have here...
I couldn't agree more. I am currently in Provincetown, MA and I LOVE the weather, 60s by day 50s at night (40s would be great too). I am wondering if 95L may actually become a noreaster and give us some excitement. Is that looking less likely at this point?
Quarter inch here today, DDR.
But it looked like it was heavy where you are.
How much did you record?
Piarco recorded .59" so far.
The 4 line-segments represent Invest95L's path.
Deriving the travel-speed&heading from the straightline connecting the ATCF coordinates
spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
Invest95L's travel-speed was 1.7k/h(~1.1mph) on a heading of 90degrees(E)
Copy&paste tzm, isj, snj, 21.7n87.0w-22.0n88.0w, 22.0n88.0w-22.3n89.0w, 22.3n89.0w-21.6n89.2w, 21.6n89.2w-21.6n89.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for 17Oct_6pmGMT
Knock yourself out.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...N-CNTRL TX...FAR NWRN AR/SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172223Z - 180030Z
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG AND BEHIND SHARP SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE EARLY/MID-EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE BY 00Z IS 40 PERCENT.
22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT FROM THE OK/KS/MO BORDER AREA BISECTING OK TO A TRIPLE-POINT LOW JUST E OF SPS. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE HELD IN THE 50S...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOWCENTERED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL TRACK SEWD INTO N-CNTRL TX THIS EVENING. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS INITIATION BY 00Z AND LIKELY INCREASING RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE TOWARDS 03Z. HOWEVER...A WARM SECTOR CAPPING INVERSION NOTED IN ACARS DATA INVOF DFW AND ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE FORCING SUGGEST TSTM UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STAY CONFINED SW OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT W/SWLYS AT 6 KM AGL PER NORMAN AND TULSA VWP DATA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL. THE RAPID EVOLUTION TO A CLUSTER AND PERHAPS LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE INFERS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HAIL THREAT WOULD PEAK EARLY AND BECOME MARGINAL WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 10/17/2011
Ok, never heard of it before. :P
the actual low temps are two to three degrees lower than this says...
Looks like some warnings too.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
715 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-144-147-180200-COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-715 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011
.NOW...
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND CONTINUE ITS TREK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FIRST SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER TREASURE COAST...AS WELL AS PLACES JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. HOWEVER...FOR MUCH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING...SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST BRINGING BRIEF BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE...AS WELL AS INTERSTATE 95.
ALL OF THIS IS AHEAD OF A FULL DAY`S WORTH OF WEATHER EXPECTED ON TUESDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN THE PAST...SUCH SYSTEMS HAVE BROUGHT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND REMAIN INCLEMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY HIGH.
&&
ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP
$$
DWS
sorry, watching dwts.....
ROTATING STORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
goodnight!
Viewing: 451 - 501
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 — Blog Index