95L drenching the Keys, could develop into a tropical depression
A large low pressure system centered about 100 miles north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, Invest 95L, is bringing heavy rains to Western Cuba and South Florida. Rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches have been common across South Florida since Saturday; Miami has picked up 3.40" as of 10 am EDT this morning, and Key West Naval Air Facility recorded 9.72". Rains of 5 - 8 inches have fallen over much of the Florida Keys and Central Cuba since Sunday, according to radar rainfall estimates from the Key West Radar. Long-range radar out of Key West shows rain is affecting most of South Florida south of Fort Myers, but there is no obvious spin to the echoes, and no evidence of organized spiral bands forming. Satellite loops show that 95L has a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in areal coverage. There is no evidence of a well-formed surface circulation trying to develop, though surface observations in the Western Caribbean do show that 95L has a broad counter-clockwise circulation. Two ships to the north of 95L's center measured sustained winds in excess of 30 mph this morning, but no land stations are reporting sustained winds over 30 mph. Water temperatures over the regions are near 29°C, which is plenty warm to support a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 95L.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending 8 am Saturday October 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Wind shear over 95L is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range through Tuesday night. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and has scheduled a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the system this afternoon at 2 pm EDT. The models are generally showing only weak development of 95L. The storm is currently moving north at 5 - 10 mph, but should turn to the northeast by Tuesday afternoon, as it gets caught up by an approaching trough of low pressure. This trough should pull 95L into the west coast of Florida on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning between Fort Myers and St. Marks. Portions of southwest Florida could receive up to 5 inches of rain from 95L; locations to the north of Tampa will less rain, due to the large amount of dry air over the northern Gulf of Mexico that will affect the northwestern portion of the storm. Once 95L meets up with the trough, wind shear will rise sharply, and it is unlikely 95L will be able to grow any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm before landfall occurs. It is more likely that 95L will have top winds of 35 - 45 mph Tuesday night near the time of landfall.
Another area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Atlantic, 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 — Blog Index
You should know. You are counting on this low to carry on with all this development and head towards Tampa. You are calling for power outages in your area, etc.
First, the low level circulation is currently separating from the convection. the low level is moving south, while the convection is moving east north east.
Secondly, there is way too much shear and dry air at your latitude for development.
They are leaving in 30 minutes
I disagree that there are going to be "widespread" power outages with this storm.
I do not mean to argue with you here but my point is simply that the terminology conjures up images in one's mind of the kind of thing that can happen in the wake of a major hurricane, with the electric power unavailable for a week or longer and over a wide area. I seriously doubt that such an outcome is likely to happen with this storm.
Much more likely to occur, in my opinion, is a widespread rain event that will overspread most all of the Florida peninsula and then move northward along the Eastern Seaboard of the US. In places, and especially once the strong trough and its attendant cold front begins to interact with this system on Tuesday and early on Wednesday, there could also be a fairly significant threat for severe weather and tornadoes in some areas, though it is hard at this point to pinpoint exactly where this may take place. It could happen over Central Florida or possibly only further to the north, especially along the Carolina coastal plains, beginning on Wednesday.
There may be localized flooding in the usually suspect areas, such as low-lying zones and subdivisions that have been built on reclaimed swampland. Additionally, river flooding is also possible in some places and those living in river flood plains should keep a close watch out for that.
But this storm does not, in my opinion, look like it is going to be a big wind event, such as what would be expected earlier in the season with a similar setup. There may be plenty of wind but I doubt that the wind/rain mix will be strong enough to produce the widespread power outages that are common with significant or potent tropical cyclone events.
Good Call...
You might want to google XTRP :-)
Nope...Thats just a tiny vortex.
Please don't frighten people when there is no justification at this time.
very sheared also.
Even this morning confusion reigned. Some sources were saying Tuesday-Wednesday, while others were saying tonight-tomorrow ... one of which was The Weather Channel's site.
What ever its gonna do it better do it quick before it gets sweeped/absorbed by a very strong trough and associated cold front.
Well heck!! I guess since the weather people don't even know, I will just wait and see. lol
I noticed that yesterday... talking to people they had no idea there was a significant weather event (whatever it ends up being) headed towards us here in S. FL.
whatever is does, it will be extratropical by the time it get up here.
He knows what that is. He just comes on here every now and again whenever there is an Invest or a named storm on the map and then does his silly little XTRP two-step.
For what it is worth, I personally don't know why there needs to be a model which only serves to indicate the extrapolation of the current course heading of a tropical system. I say this because anyone who has enough interest to closely follow the evolution of any tropical cyclone certainly knows what direction the system is moving at any given time.
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 16:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Mission Purpose: Investigate ninth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01
Hmmmm wonder what my weather man was talking about a few minutes ago then??? Im in tampa and he said we have a 90% chance of heavy rains from this. Please let me know what weather station said it will be staying well to our south? Thanks in advance!
That is all i am saying.......i lost power for 5 days in 2005 by a 50mph Tropical Storm.....ITS NO FUN. Thats all i am saying........NO WONDER WHY EVERYONE HAS GONE TO THE OTHER SITE...i was just there and its a heck of a lot more nicer people.
Awaiting levi's analysis
Me too. He is very detailed and knowledgable.
you make me laugh....
just keep crying wolf! LOL
A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWAT OF 2.5 INCHES+) WILL REMAIN
INTACT FROM THE YUCATAN TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AND
INTO THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
(1ST PARAGRAPH) BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BALANCE
OF THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...AS THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY TRACKS A TAD NORTHWARD...EXPECT DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
INCREASE WITH STRATIFORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. IN
ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A TORNADO WILL PERSIST ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SINCE THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
Video from the beach this am in link
Link
Glad to get a laugh out of a a better Comedian..
There is nothing funny about posting that there are going to be destructive winds in an area, causing some people to change there plans, when the local, national, and NHC are not doing any of the such.
Some people rely in this blog for accurate weather information. True it is your "opinion", but please don't hype.
Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Monday, October 17th, with Video
Tropical Conditions Report
8:08AM Monday, October 17, 2011 (gws)
Current Conditions:
LOCAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCHES/WARNINGS: None
Tropical Storm Force or Greater Winds Within 48 Hours: Possible west through north of the Lake late tomorrow
DISCUSSION:
A tropical low has emerged off the north coast of Yucatan and into the south central Gulf of Mexico. This system is producing an organized area of heavy showers/storms as far north and east as the Florida Keys. The low is expected to move slowly northward today with a good potential for development through tomorrow afternoon before getting tangled with a frontal system across the northeast Gulf of Mexico tomorrow evening. Regardless of development, this system will impact our weather with strong winds and areas of heavy to excessive rainfall through Wednesday morning.
No other areas of interest to District operations are observed or expected to develop through tomorrow.
NEXT SCHEDULED UPDATE: 8am Tuesday
Nice JOB Levi....didn't say too much different than i expected.......some of these idiots are clueless.
My sentiment exactly, no bashing here, just don't put the cart before the horse...
What site
My own Local WeatherMan.......heck many of them blog on my site......LOL.... But yes you are correct about the Power.....the idiots up NORTH that don't live here and have no idea what a small system can bring AS WE THAT DO LIVE HERE KNOW!
Just looking at the positive........... :)
We have had tons of rain from compiling small scale events, but large scale events always find away to avoid Tampa Bay whether they are predicted or not...
I'm starting to wonder if this system might do the same. It was just the other day the NWS had said widespread amounts of 2 to 4 inches isolated amounts up to 8 were possible, now they've dropped that forecast down to 1 to 3 inches. Furthermore, they've mentioned that models show the warm front to the south bringing some rain into the area later today and heavy rain by tonight, but the rain has actually retreated further south some since this morning! The bottom line is, so far high pressure is winning control and keeping the rain even over South Florida, until that changes don't expect any extreme rain in the Tampa Bay area.
That's why I said the potential for Central Florida to get absolutely soaked exists, but I made particular focus toward potential, because I have seen so many large scale storm events in the last 5 years that seem to find a way to avoid Tampa Bay.
As I said though, we have gotten many impressive storms and heavy rainfall, but its all come from small scale events, not large scale.
Viewing: 101 - 151
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 — Blog Index