95L drenching the Keys, could develop into a tropical depression
A large low pressure system centered about 100 miles north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, Invest 95L, is bringing heavy rains to Western Cuba and South Florida. Rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches have been common across South Florida since Saturday; Miami has picked up 3.40" as of 10 am EDT this morning, and Key West Naval Air Facility recorded 9.72". Rains of 5 - 8 inches have fallen over much of the Florida Keys and Central Cuba since Sunday, according to radar rainfall estimates from the Key West Radar. Long-range radar out of Key West shows rain is affecting most of South Florida south of Fort Myers, but there is no obvious spin to the echoes, and no evidence of organized spiral bands forming. Satellite loops show that 95L has a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in areal coverage. There is no evidence of a well-formed surface circulation trying to develop, though surface observations in the Western Caribbean do show that 95L has a broad counter-clockwise circulation. Two ships to the north of 95L's center measured sustained winds in excess of 30 mph this morning, but no land stations are reporting sustained winds over 30 mph. Water temperatures over the regions are near 29°C, which is plenty warm to support a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 95L.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending 8 am Saturday October 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Wind shear over 95L is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range through Tuesday night. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and has scheduled a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the system this afternoon at 2 pm EDT. The models are generally showing only weak development of 95L. The storm is currently moving north at 5 - 10 mph, but should turn to the northeast by Tuesday afternoon, as it gets caught up by an approaching trough of low pressure. This trough should pull 95L into the west coast of Florida on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning between Fort Myers and St. Marks. Portions of southwest Florida could receive up to 5 inches of rain from 95L; locations to the north of Tampa will less rain, due to the large amount of dry air over the northern Gulf of Mexico that will affect the northwestern portion of the storm. Once 95L meets up with the trough, wind shear will rise sharply, and it is unlikely 95L will be able to grow any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm before landfall occurs. It is more likely that 95L will have top winds of 35 - 45 mph Tuesday night near the time of landfall.
Another area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Atlantic, 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
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Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
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buckets of rain headed for Florida.
LinkBucketsofRain
I was saying center was off north coast drifting WSW as seen on SW loop since 4 am edt. I was slammed for it and told to watch and learn by storm hype .....LOL....That spin off the N coast didn't take over...it was and is the dominate spin at low level since early this morning, late last night.
very easy to see it in thatone Pat thanks
From the posts from Key West it's already arrived and water is in people's houses and it's kayak time. Sounds like major flooding is going on.
The "swirl" is caught in the much larger overall circulation.
It will be interesting to see if the "swirl" gets more organized as it moves into a more favorable enviromenent.
scooster67
Agree...has to happen quickly though.
What do you mean, more favorable environment? This is about as favorable as it is going to get for this system. Shear values are very high as you head farther north. See post 185 for a map of the shear values
Yeah two more fronts(after this) will come on through this month(according to the models). The first will be just a reinforcement(for early next week).
While the latter will be even more powerful by the 28th/29th timeframe(just in time for Halloween Weekend). I wouldn't doubt it if New England sees a white Halloween of of that!
By more favorable I'm mean getting further East and into a more moist environment. Right now the "swirl" is being attacked by dry air.
If it were to continue west it would be going right into the dry air.
By making the turn and starting to move eastward, we could see some convection building around the center.
I can see that point. It looks like, based on the RGB imagery, that the low center is beginning to move more parallel to the Yucatan Coast (meaning to the E, as opposed to south that it was moving earlier). Theoretically, one could believe that thunderstorm activity could increase around the center in that moist environment, but the big question is how long that thunderstorm activity would be able to sustain itself in the increasing shear environment.
Odd. Xandra and others have been discussed over there.
Tropical Storm
it does have the winds
Levi's video update showed several vorticies. I wouldn't get hellbent on chasing the tiny swirl that's headed south. I think it's embedded in the west side of a larger CoC that is/was trying to come together.
I don't see how that naked swirl could be causing the extensive outflow way off to the East. Is there another COC under the main convection?
Yeah, it needs to get moving. If it were to get moving in a more easterly direction, it might give the convection a chance to build (catch up - or be pulled back).
With the LLC moving away from the convection (as we saw earlier today) it had no chance.
thats where recon found the TS winds
Since the "swirl" looks pretty tight and (maybe) closed, the fact that it has been going south and now maybe east, could it in fact get back into more favorable (moist environment) of the E Gomex or W Carrib and begin to strenghten while the current wet mass of clouds and rain begin to get drawn away from it and over Florida? Thus, possibly, creating ANOTHER tropical system?? Just wondering about possible scenario. Been a weird season, and there has been a whole lot of surprises with some of these systems. TIA
Wednesday 8AM GFS forcast Map:
I wouldn't trust that one. They were climbing from 500ft to 1000ft....
i doubt if they will find any west winds
Part of the reason the NHC lowered the probability to 40%. Dmin doesnt help matters at all, which will be in a few hours. We'll see. I think most in FL, coastal GA, SC, and NC will need to mind the tornado threat though, moreso than anything else... regardless of tropical development.
Storm Hype....Ahhh...You rudely told me to watch and learn.....this morning when I nicely pointed out that I noted the broad circulation was centered N of the coast in the Gulf as seen via the SW loop and later, the 8am TWD noted that the circulation was in the S gulf of mexico N of the coast, as I had earlier. I had noted it late last night and at 4am edt when I woke up. You didnt agree, instead of just nicely saying, well, I dont agree, you provided nothing in the form of information as to where the center was and rudely told me to "watch and learn"....as if you and some others who were indicating we nearly had a TS and that the COC was under the convection. You may want to "watch" and "learn" that when the LL Clouds spin in a counter clockwise circle...like a top (lol).....it is infact a circulation! And...........now that 9 hours of vis sat is avail......its STILL a circulation! LOL
I wouldn't be surprised to see this fall apart even further.
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LOL,
Naked Swirl Alert!
Yes, it's an embedded vortex in a larger circulation. Kinda like looking at a twig when you want to find the whole tree. That is 5 mile diameter swirl is an insignificant feature at this point. A 5mile diameter 'swirl' at the surface in a Cat3 is a different story. Your going to be learned again as the swirl goes east as it's simply along for the ride in a larger CCW circ still above the surface.
Evacuate!! Put tape on your windows!!
30.2 knots (~ 34.8 mph)
anotherone you can question
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