La Niña drawing to a close
La Niña, the cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters off the coast of South America that has dramatically affected our weather for most of the past two years, is almost done. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", have warmed rapidly over the past two weeks, and were 0.4°C below average on February 27. This is slightly warmer than the -0.5°C threshold to be considered La Niña conditions, and is the first time since early August that La Niña conditions have not been present. It is likely that SSTs will continue to warm during March and April, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is predicting that they will declare an official end to La Niña sometime between March and April. A moderate to strong La Niña began in the summer of 2010, weakened briefly during May - July 2011 to neutral status, then re-intensified to a borderline weak/moderate La Niña from August 2011 - January 2012.
Figure 1. Comparison of the sea surface temperature departure from average from January 4 and February 22, 2012, over the tropical Eastern Pacific. During January, a large region of the ocean was more than 0.5°C cooler than average, meaning a La Niña event was present. Beginning in mid-February, waters warmed rapidly from east to west along the Equator, signaling and end to the La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA.
The forecast: neutral or El Niño conditions by fall
The period March - May is the typical time of year that El Niño or La Niña events end, and it is common for the opposite phenomena to take hold by fall. Since 1950, there have been twelve La Niña events that ended during the first half of the year; during six of those years (50%), an El Niño event formed in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. The official forecast from Columbia University's IRI and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for a 31 - 32% chance of an El Niño event during the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by creating high levels of wind shear that tends to tear hurricanes apart. Given the relatively high chance of an El Niño event this fall, plus ocean temperatures over the tropical Atlantic that are cooler than we saw in 2011 and 2010, I doubt we'll see an Atlantic hurricane season as active as the ones in 2010 and 2011 (nineteen named storms both years, third busiest seasons on record.) The demise of La Niña also means that global temperatures should begin to approach record warm levels by the end of the year. The cool waters of a La Niña event keep global temperatures cooler than average.
Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in mid-February 2012. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Most of the computer models are predicting neutral or El Niño conditions during the fall peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.
I'll have a new post by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yep
really, I mean come on 7.7million a piece. I dont see to many of those being built
Link
Beam me up Scotty!
that may not work out in their favor
Iran hails from a rich liberal Persian (not Arab) culture heritage and was founded in the principles of benign(ish) Zoastroanism
Iran has been occupied by Islamic rule brought in by Arab invasion since the 7th century
Iran is a huge Middle Eastern country and represents a considerable population, influence and raw force.
and, "War is stupid"
That is a very interesting article you linked. Here is a paste of the final paragraph:-
" At a time when an additional 220,000 people are lining up at the global soup kitchen each and every night; when energy, water and food resources are coming under ever-growing pressure, and when the debilitating effects of anthropogenic climate change are insinuating themselves increasingly into every nook and cranny of our world and our lives, the last thing we need is for the dozing subterranean giant to awaken."
I would recommend taking the time to read it. There a lot more to this global warming/climate change than meets the eye, I for one would have been a sceptic if I had not seen some of the effects personally and these sat shots that keep getting posted of China and Indian pollution take some swallowing in more ways than one, when you realise we are breathing that stuff as well!
what in Gods' great earth is that??
no
it is not the right thing for them to do
the right thing is to give up what they seek
easy
until that point is reach
they will not stop from seeking
Whew! Glad you settled that. Now Doc M can take the season off...LOL
Weather subject, here is GFS forecast for saturday. I been watchin this for awhile
Relative Humidity
850mb :D
The share of electricity produced from renewable energy in Germany has increased from 6.3 percent of the national total in 2000 to over 20 percent in the first half of 2011.[1] In 2010, investments totaling 26 billion euros were made in Germany’s renewable energies sector. According to official figures, some 370,000 people in Germany were employed in the renewable energy sector in 2010, especially in small and medium sized companies. This is an increase of around 8 percent compared to 2009 (around 339,500 jobs), and well over twice the number of jobs in 2004 (160,500). About two-thirds of these jobs are attributed to the Renewable Energy Sources Act[2][3] Germany is the world's first major renewable energy economy.[4] In 2010 nearly 17% (more than 100 TWH) of Germany's electricity supply (603 TWH) was produced from renewable energy sources, more than the 2010 contribution of gas-fired power plants.[5]
Renewable electricity in 2010 was 101.7 TWh including wind power 36.5 TWh, biomass and biowaste 33.5 TWh, hydropower 19.7 TWh and photovoltage solar power 12.0 TWh.[6]
i really hope we dont have another 09...my first tracking season, and i got 9 storms. :(
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING...AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
29/12Z. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. THE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR MULTIPLE AREAS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
...NEB/KS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
CONDITIONS ACROSS NEB/KS ARE STARTING COLD AND DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S/40S. HOWEVER...RAPID MODIFICATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SURFACE HELP TO ERODE
THE CLOUDS AND TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO REGION. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS NEAR 50F ARE EXPECTED INTO SOUTHERN NEB ALONG
WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL CAPE. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST KS BEFORE DARK...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WIND FIELDS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A RISK OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EASTWARD EXTENT OF THESE STORMS
IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEB/IA.
HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF
MAINTAINING THE SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST TO THE MO RIVER.
...KS/OK/MO THIS EVENING...
MID LEVEL CAPPING IS LIKELY TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL AFTER DARK...WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES OVER
CENTRAL KS/OK. MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM FIRST IN CENTRAL KS AND BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT INTO
OK...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF MO/AR DURING THE EVENING.
FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF DISCRETE
STORMS CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO
SUPPORT A RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.
...MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...
THE INCREASING CONVECTION OVER OK/KS DURING THE EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONGEAL ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERSITY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING
HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES...WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME VERY STRONG
OVERNIGHT AND FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY...
INCREASING THE RISK OF BUOYANT SURFACE-BASED PARCELS AS FAR NORTH AS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z.
..HART/COHEN/MOSIER.. 02/28/2012
Amen.
Okay, running a day late, but...
Thanks for the ENSO overview and update Dr Jeff!
Indeed, the E Pac certainly has warmed rapidly in short period particularly in Nino 1+2 / 3 regions and expanding WWD... LOL, viewing the CPC's animation (currently Dec 07-Feb 22) of the warming SST progression appears at a glance someone left the Panama Canal locks wide open (except the warm bulge appears closer to Costa Rica)... ;)
An observation on a related note -
As those SST's warmed remarkably, also noticed in response more abundant moisture / convection built over (and above) that part E PAC region... Some of that mid-up level moisture entrained into the S Cen / E US as, coinciding with the repetitious Baja low / subtropical jet pattern recently, the strong deep-layered ULL storm system that dug down over Baja / MX around Feb 16th onward actually tapped into that pooling EPAC tropical moisture - reminiscent of "El Nino / Pineapple Express" type events - delivering the heavy deluge over TX-LA / N Gulf on Feb 17-18th... Can see the interaction in this NRL Monterey water vapor image (845Z / 18th) of the long moisture plume, drawn by the upper trof / subtropical jet and subsequently flowing around what has been a dominant mid-upper Caribbean ridge for much of this warm Winter (blue = dry subsident air mass)...
(image courtesy Image Shack, NRL Monterey)
Also SFSU Jet Stream Analysis showing the set-up by 12Z Feb 17 2012 and the 18th... Perhaps better illustrated with this archived GFS 300 mb synoptic wind analysis...
(image courtesy Image Shack, NOMADS.NCEP.NOAA)
Locally, this event resulted in the heaviest rainfall for most parts of Louisiana (esp SE LA) since STS Lee in September, with widespread 2-4" plus amts reported... Different circumstances, but appears my first (and only) "over 2 inch" rainfall since Lee (2.82") had a deep tropical connection.
im doin alright! and you?
Thank you for that extravaganza of clarification of what is and can be done.
Well, Skeptics and their scepticism have always been an easy target on both sides of any argument about the fabric of reality.
I am of the opinion that the realistic maximum life of any model of a commercial power station would be around 50 years max. Now I know somebody will list ones that have been going for a 100 years but keeping anomalies out of the equation this time round, lets look at replacement.
If more ecologically friendly power generators were to be built as of about now, then in say 10 years plus construction time 20% of the worlds power would come from them, this can be continued into the future until after 50 years all power would come from "Green Power Stations." Be they solar, wind, waves, geothermal etc.
This seems like a long time for some of the bloggers on here but others would now be saying,if construction had started 60 years ago."I can remember when they used to burn coal to produce electricity!
I remember when they used to pull trains with steam engines!
Even the Chinese don't do that anymore!
I'm here. Keeping a close eye on the path of the low pressure. Latest expectations are for snow to begin along the south shore of Lake Superior after midnight. Totals could range between 10 and 15 inches with some blowing and drifting. Higher snow totals and winds expected back in central Minnesota.
I've already had 36" of snow this winter with a couple inches remaining on the ground. Last year I had 58" total, which is pretty average for my location. So I could use a little more snow before April.
Light snow started this morning, which was not really in the forecast. Warm air advection seems to have triggered the snow and produced a inch of snow so far. It might a sign of what's to come!
I'm good
What type of ENSO year do you think we will have or do you think it's a guessing game at the moment?
i'll take anything other than ice accumulations.
ENSO=CPC 2/27/12=Nino 3.4 up to -0.4C / Nino 3 up to +0.2C
The Earth is warming. Our climate is changing. Humans are doing multiple things which are causing this change, burning fossil fuels is a major input.
This is settled science, there's no question left to ponder.
Getting off coal. Coal is a very expensive way to generate electricity, but many people don't realize that. It's cheap to burn coal for electricity, but the stuff that comes out of the smokestack causes a lot of expensive health problems and environmental damage. We pay three times for coal-electricity - at the meter, with our health insurance premiums and with our tax dollars.
Wind is a very inexpensive way to produce electricity. Geothermal is a moderate cost method. Solar is already cheaper than coal (if you count all the costs) and solar is rapidly getting cheaper. Tidal will likely become cheaper than coal. Hydro is cheaper than coal. We are making major progress with storage, wind/solar plus storage will soon be cheaper than coal.
Yes, coal provides jobs. Many of them dangerous, health-damaging jobs. Renewable energy will provide even more jobs. Safer jobs.
Even the places that might be hurt by dropping coal out of our energy mix can profit from renewables. We've recently discovered that West Virginia has massive geothermal potential. WV can sell clean electricity to the Eastern Seaboard rather than dirty coal. The Western coal states have great wind potential and we're now running transmission lines to those areas in order to move electricity to the West Coast.
ERCOT is doing quite well with lots of wind on its grid. Wind is making power cheaper. ERCOT is now adding lots of solar and starting on offshore wind to provide more clean, renewable power for their peak hour needs.
We are in the transition away from fossil fuels. It's a done deal. The question is whether we transition rapidly in order to minimize climate change, save money and improve our health or whether we transition slow in order for a few fossil fuel industry owners to further enrich themselves.
"Timurlane's body was exhumed from his tomb in 1941 by the Soviet anthropologist Mikhail M. Gerasimov. It is alleged that Timur's tomb was inscribed with the words, "When I rise from the dead, the world shall tremble." It is also said that when Gerasimov exhumed the body, an additional inscription inside the casket was found reading, "Who ever opens my tomb, shall unleash an invader more terrible than I." In any case, two days after Gerasimov had begun the exhumation, Nazi Germany launched Operation Barbarossa, its invasion of the U.S.S.R. Timur was re-buried with full Islamic ritual in November 1942 just before the Soviet victory at the Battle of Stalingrad."
Record Rain Wreaks Havoc On Region (5/20/2009)
HOLLY HILL, Fla. 5/20/2009 -- Record amounts of rain continued to fall on Central Florida throughout Wednesday.
Volusia County has seen more than 14 inches of rain, causing flooding in many areas.
Volusia County flooding
Residents in Holly Hill woke up Wednesday to standing water in the streets. The rain even crept up toward the doors of their homes and businesses.
"The water damage is just going to ruin everything. I mean, our beds are on the ground. We don't have any frames so what do we do?" resident Rianne McCarter said.
It's not just small side roads that are flooded, major arteries in Volusia County like U.S. 1 have several inches of water standing on them, leaving motorists stranded.
There were more than 30 streets closed in Daytona Beach Wednesday night. Neighborhoods east of Nova Road were under water, making it nearly impossible for residents to get in and out of their homes.
"The rain came coming and then the trucks kept coming, and it became more and more," said Daytona Beach resident Katie Thigpen. "The more I pull out, within 15 minutes I had more, to the point it's up to here."
The American Red Cross opened up a shelter at Westside Baptist Church on Mason Avenue for anyone who needs a place to sleep, eat or stay dry.
"We have plenty of room here," said volunteer Fran Czajkowski. "This is a great location for a shelter, lots of room, lots of privacy."
Since Sunday, Daytona Beach has gotten more than 14 inches of rain -- that's double the amount of rainfall the city had during Tropical Storm Fay. Police are urging residents to avoid roads with flooding signage.
An apartment caught fire in downtown Orlando after being struck by lightning from Wednesday night's storms.
Read more: http://www.wesh.com/weather/19519173/detail.html#i xzz1nhdnigZX
Thought I better warn you - just saw an amazing, almost unprecedented phenomena... Dere's real bonafide SUNSHINE poking thru ocassionally as the dreary solid overcast skies are finally breaking, lifting out... somewhat!
Hey, I'll take the above-avg warmth in exchange for a lil sun after the days on end of overcast / nuisance drizzle and dense fog we've had... Not all that cold with past system but dampness kept a chill feel - LOL, my home thermo temp range yesterday ran a bit narrow, 59.2-61.5F...
Out for lunch,
G'day!
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