Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Skyepony:
I-75 in Sumter County FL reopens after 11 wrecks with 27 cars due to heavy rain.

People are being urged to slow down & drive cautiously in the rain.

Quoting Skyepony:


I disagree. With a drought in West Africa we should see dust choked Tropical Waves that will take longer to develop. We should see more waves make it across the Atlantic before they shake the dust out & form. This was key in like 2005. Should add to the homegrown advantage.

Quoting emguy:


Actually, Hurricane Charley was not a home grown system. His origins were of a true Cape Verde nature. He was a tropical wave that came off Africa and passed through the Carribean with little circumstance. Thunderstorms became much better organized while approaching the Leewards, but advisories did not begin until the wave passed through the islands. At the time of passage through the islands, it was noted by NHC that there was a sharp 4MB pressure drop and on further analysis, advisories were initialized.

Other notes about Charley would include his ability to find a favorable environment despite a very rapid forward motion through both the Carribean and the Gulf. Second, Charley was a storm that remained small in size, but more interestingly, remained small and intense while nested in a completely dry air environment. In fact, when Charley first developed, he was totally surrounded by a deep layer of African Dust. It is thought this may have contibuted to the small size of the Hurricane.

For such a fast forward speed, and a surrounding dry air environment, this hurricane found a small nest and took it along for the ride. Also of note...the eye of Charley contracted further while moving through Charlotte Harbor. It is possible that the eye iteslf was less than 2 miles wide (maybe 1.5 miles wide) at final landfall in Punta Gorda.

Quoting washingtonian115:
It will be in it's 70's to near 80' all week.Yes!.

Quoting JRRP:

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Unreal! We could be in full summer mode come May.

Quoting nigel20:

Good morning guys....looking as if we will have neutral condition through out the hurricane season

Quoting washingtonian115:
Yep.Looking forward to it.The pool will more than likley open up early.The kids are going to enjoy this!.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Neu-neutral?.That only spells trouble...hopefully hurricane season is good to us.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe, but your ridge of warmth may come crashing down into a week:

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe, but your ridge of warmth may come crashing down into a week:

Quoting JRRP:
this season will be interesting

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Indeed. It's starting to appear less likely that this year will be a significant El Nino year, rather a warm neutral one.

Quoting WDEmobmet:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z


...MID SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
DESPITE WEAK/UNFOCUSED ASCENT...DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE...SUPPORTING SUBSEQUENT INITIATION OF SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR 30 TO 40 KT EXPECTED...A FEW
STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS COULD EVOLVE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL.

LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS AND THUS THE EXPECTATION OF LIMITED STORM
COVERAGE PRECLUDES UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. SHOULD POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS BECOME EVIDENT...UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I never predicted a strong El nino.Maybe a weak one? yes.But a strong one?.No.As others have already said we have a cold PDO that's just not going to really allow it.

Quoting Neapolitan:
From HAMWeather, look at some of these forecast anomalies for this Friday. These aren't actual temperatures, but departures from normal. Note the large area of >20 and even >30 departures--some of them close to 40 degrees above normal.

Quoting Neapolitan:
From HAMWeather, look at some of these forecast anomalies for this Friday. These aren't actual temperatures, but departures from normal. Note the large area of >20 and even >30 departures--some of them close to 40 degrees above normal.

Quoting nigel20:

Agreed

Quoting RitaEvac:


Thank GOD there's no such things as normal.

Quoting washingtonian115:
This is exacally why the Colorado team didn't predict what the season was going to be like back in December.People were uncertain what was going to happen over in the pacific.Now the models are flipping back and forth.

Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, it's a waiting game

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't like anybody should have thought it would end up a significant El Nino year to begin with. These changes are rapid, just gradual.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I think we'll all know what the pattern is going to be like in late May early June.

Quoting Neapolitan:
From HAMWeather, look at some of these forecast anomalies for this Friday. These aren't actual temperatures, but departures from normal. Note the large area of >20 and even >30 departures--some of them close to 40 degrees above normal.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

From the forecast for my area in N GA:


Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Here come the bugs and the pollen. My house is already beseiged by hundreds of bees around our bushes. Those disappering honeybees seem to be back. Im a goner