Summer in March continues for Midwest; Dexter, MI tornado an EF-3
For the third consecutive day, Chicago, Illinois hit their warmest temperature on record so early in the year, going back to 1872. The mercury hit 82°F, giving the city its third consecutive day of 80°+ temperatures, smashing the old record by a month. Previously, the earliest Chicago had ever seen three consecutive 80 degree days was back on April 14 - 16, 1976. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say:
Chicago and Rockford have both broken high temperature records 3 days in a row and will likely break record highs for 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for 6 or 7 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get on Monday and Tuesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day. At the current pace... it is likely that Chicago and Rockford will not only break... but shatter their current record warmest Marches.
Figure 1. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77degrees when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken yesterday in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.
Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 39°F above average. This smashes the old record by a remarkable 6°F. Previous record: 73°F, set just two days previously, and also on March 7, 2000.
Bismark, North Dakota hit 81°F yesterday, which was a remarkable 41°F above normal. Not only does this tie Bismarck's warmest all-time monthly March temp on record (three other 81°F readings later in the month, with March 22,1910 being next earliest), it beats the next warmest early season record by a full 6°! The previous record was 75°F on March 12, 2007. Temperatures also soared into the 70's well into Canada's prairies on Friday, setting all-time warm temperature records for so early in the year across much of southern Canada.
International Falls, Minnesota hit 71°F yesterday, which was 36°F above normal, and their earliest 70°F reading by two weeks. Previously, the earliest 70°F reading came on March 30, 1967. Back on March 17, 1897, the temperature in International Falls hit -33°F!
Dexter, Michigan tornado rated an EF-3
NWS survey teams have confirmed that an EF-3 tornado with winds of 135 - 140 mph hit Dexter, Michigan on Thursday. It was the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950. The tornado skipped along a 7.2-mile path and had a width of up to 800 yards. It damaged or destroyed 128 buildings, but fortunately did not cause any deaths or injuries. The previous earliest appearance of an F-3 tornado in Michigan was on March 20, 1976. At least two other tornadoes touched down in Michigan Thursday, making it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history so early in the year. The record outbreak for so early in the year was the eight tornadoes that touched down on March 12, 1976.
Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the March 15, 2012 Dexter, Michigan tornado.
I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
Another shot from yesterdays storm in Michigan
Reader Comments
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I think this season will be very focused in the West - thanks to the SST's being so cool in the Eastern Atlantic, all the heat and energy has to be built up somewhere and unlike the last two hurricane seasons where the SST's where warm in the East and the West, I think it will be all stuck in the Western Atlantic and the GOMEX, causing significant systems this year to develop closer to home. You agree?
Looks like NC/SC will be under the gun from these summer-like storms today.
Possibly, though SST's can warm quite rapidly if given the chance
Hey Teddy :)
Well all El Nino seasons carry the enhanced risk of in-close developments as opposed to long-trackers from the deep tropics. However, only GOM systems typically hit the U.S. often. The rest develop too far north and recurve too quickly to hit the eastern seaboard, in general. I think you're right that the central and eastern tropical Atlantic will be largely shut down this year if the El Nino does come on.
with abunant rainfall/severe early in the period
as cold core cutoff stalls nations midwest
then nudges ne up over lower lakes
to be absorbed into the zonal flow above it
That's true, however given that the trade winds and African drought don't seem to be letting up + with the warm neutral upcoming, I think that it will be the WATL's year to shine.
Thanks for the reply!
I think that an El Nino isn't very likely, with a Cold PDO and the ENSO forecasts giving that possibility kind of the cold shoulder. However, I do think we're going to get very close to one or the fact if we do get one, the atmosphere will lag (as the atmosphere will not have adjusted yet thanks to the PDO) and the effects won't be as drastic on our hurricane season as 2006 and 2009's where, which leads me to the idea that we will see around 13 named this year.
Also, the Australian's ENSO wrap-up seems to believe that we won't be seeing a El Nino this year.
Point taken
Well the SOI led the SSTs during the tail-end of the winter, so I'm not sure you can make the argument for an appreciable atmospheric lag this year. Also, multi-year La Ninas within cold PDO periods are almost always followed by a couple years of at least weak El Nino before going cold again. Just look at the 1950s, the 1970s, and the 1998-2000 La Nina. Of course, this La Nina hasn't gone on as long yet as any of those three, so it's still possible that we could remain colder than forecast in the Pacific and maintain neutral/La Nina for one more year, but we shall see.
What will be more interesting is if we do get the El Nino, whether the negative PDO signature (cold water along west coast of North America) will remain strong in the Pacific, because that can cause an interesting dance to happen between the east Pacific and the west Atlantic during the summer.
2007-05-30
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Quality Daily and hourly forecasts, up to months and years in advance.
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Time Schedule There is no fixed time schedule. The project has been started in 1998 and shows good progress.
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Online since 1990
Too high?
Well, yes, my house is burning down.
But the upside is that my feet aren't cold any longer....
Bought some garlic societies and replanted around the oak trees, sweating like summer
The premise is correct, even if it is a false legend.
We have established how the horse died. We just have not yet discovered if it was a one horse town. ;-)
Possibly. Right now we just have summer t'storms dumping rain, imagine if we got a front.
Nah. The horse froze to death! They did not need to shoot it. ... Have you ever heard of a 3 dog night?
Monday?
Depends how fast this thing moves, Monday or Tuesday, or both days
Actually it could be Skogafoss in Iceland.
Link
LOL! I hear ya, buddy. That is why I live on the Texas Gulf Coast! ;-)
Correction I found the actual picture: It is Skogafoss in Iceland. The picture is by Anna Andres.
Link
Anybody know why?
I don't think so... I still don't think we'll see El Nino. Probably a warm neutral conducive for 11-12 storms, maybe more if the environment in the Gulf/ Caribbean is favorable for some home grown storms.
All I want to hear all night is: Here is your UNIVERSITY OF NORTH DAKOTA FIGHTING SIOUX SCORRRRRRRRIIIIIIINNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGG.
Yeah.
Looks like extreme Eastern Texas will be under the gun Tuesday.
Mississippi and Tennessee on Wednesday.
Alabama, Georgia, and east Tennessee on Thursday.
and on and on...
HAZARDS
HEAVY RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MARCH 19-21.
HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE, MARCH 22.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, MARCH 19.
HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, AND LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, MARCH 19.
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, MARCH 19.
HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MARCH 20-21.
HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MARCH 20-21.
HIGH WINDS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MARCH 20-21.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND OFFSHORE AREAS, MARCH 21-22.
FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS, MARCH 19-20.
FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IDAHO, MARCH 19-20.
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, MARCH 19-23.
SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHWEST, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, UTAH, EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND HAWAII.
Link
It's never too early to talk about the tropics :)
The trend is still towards El Nino by all signs, though our skill at predicting when the trend will end is still low. Last year the models thought an El Nino was coming and it didn't show, but this year a few more things are aligned in its favor. I think a weak El Nino season is most likely at this point, but then again March is the month during which ENSO predictions have the greatest errors, so you never know. Either way, the Atlantic hurricane season will be much less active than 2010 and 2011.
Haha, what if we end up with 22 named storms? =P
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