February 2012 the globe's 22nd warmest; record Hawaii hailstone confirmed
February 2012 was the globe's 22nd warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperatures were the 15th warmest on record according to NASA. It was the coolest February since 1994, and the coolest month, relative to average, since January 2008. The relatively cool temperatures were due, in part, to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which has brought a large amount of cool water to the surface. February 2012 global land temperatures were the 37th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 7th or 13th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). February temperatures in the stratosphere were the coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Snow cover during February varied dramatically depending on which hemisphere you were in. Eurasia had its third largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record, while North America had its fourth lowest. As seen in Figure 1, much of North America and Siberia were much warmer than average, while Europe was considerably colder than average. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February in his February 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for February 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
La Niña weakens, almost gone
A borderline weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.5°C below average during February and the the first half of March. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 32% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.
February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.
Figure 2. Record-setting hailstone from the Hawaii 'supercell' thunderstorm that hit the Hawaiian island of Oahu on March 9, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/National Weather Service.
Huge hailstone sets Hawaii record
A hailstone with the diameter of roughly that of a grapefruit that hit Oahu on March 9, 2012, has been confirmed as the largest hailstone on record for the state of Hawaii, according to NOAA. The record-setting hailstone was dropped by a “supercell” thunderstorm on the windward side of Oahu. There were numerous reports of hail with diameters of 2 to 3 inches and greater. Hail the size of a penny (diameter of 3/4 inch) or quarter (diameter of one inch) has been reported in Hawaii only eight times since records began, and there is no record of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter. Hail the size of golf balls and baseballs can only form within intense thunderstorms called supercells. These supercells need warm, moist air to rise into progressively colder, drier air, as well as winds changing direction and increasing speed with increasing height off the ground. For both sets of conditions to exist at the same time in Hawaii is extremely rare, but that did occur on March 9. Conditions that day were ideal for a supercell to form, and the storm looked very much like supercell thunderstorms common in the Central U.S. during spring. Supercells can also produce tornadoes, another rarity in Hawaii. The same hail-producing supercell produced a confirmed EF-0 tornado with winds of 60-70 mph in Lanikai and Enchanted Lakes on Oahu.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON OUT TO 36N 70W TO 34N 71W
1100 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
...GALE WARNING...
.THIS AFTERNOON...SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT
LATE...EXCEPT SE PORTION 10 TO 15 KT EARLY. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT
BUILDING TO 6 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST NE.
.TONIGHT...W TO SW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT NW PORTION
BECOMING NW 20 TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT...EXCEPT E OF 1000
FM BUILDING TO 8 TO 14 FT...HIGHEST NE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING.
.THU...WINDS BECOMING NW 20 TO 30 KT THROUGHOUT...HIGHEST NE.
SEAS 5 TO 8 FT...EXCEPT E OF 1000 FM BECOMINNG 8 TO 12
FT...HIGHEST NE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ENDING.
.THU NIGHT...N TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT...HIGHEST
NE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 6 FT...EXCEPT E OF 1000 FM TO 6 TO 9
FT...HIGHEST E.
.FRI...WINDS DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT W OF
1000 FM BECOMING S TO SE 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
TO 4 FT...EXCEPT E OF 1000 FM TO 4 TO 6 FT.
.SAT...S TO SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT FAR NW
PORTION BECOMING N 15 TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7
FT...EXCEPT SE PORTION TO 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...WINDS BECOMING N TO NW 15 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS 3 TO
6 FT...EXCEPT SE PORTION SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 9 FT LATE.
$$
If the admin wanted to ban you then they would have banned you. Theirs is the power....
Avatars - are there guidelines?
Apparently you've missed my previous response to your complaint.
okay thanks!
Finally! Somebody catches on!
I've been sitting back watching for the past several days just waiting for somebody to say something.
When you're on the blog during peak hurricane season, and all the trolls come about, you notice things pretty quickly.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012
PRC039-054-091-101-145-282245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0070.120328T1945Z-120328T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
345 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...MANATI...MOROVIS AND VEGA BAJA
* UNTIL 645 PM AST
* AT 341 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 645 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1833 6659 1837 6649 1835 6639 1827 6641
1825 6652
$$
EM
Hey man, the models look interesting next week. Looks like we may get a bad outbreak of severe wx before the cold punches in.
I don't think that the person that I think you are saying is JFV is JFV, but someone else...
JFV has not been on the blog in years, but he has little impostors that like to pretend that it's him.
Immature is what it is...
Hmmmm ... you must be an insurance claims guy.
WunderBlogAdmin has a profile? I've never seen an admin post on the blog. And I agree about the second chances. However most who get banned probably deserve it.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
3:00 AM JST March 29 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 9.2N 112.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
Dvorak: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.3N 112.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Wondering if some of these will make it to Houston. NOAA doesn't seem to think so but they obviously are not 100% sure
Copyrighted images, I understand.
But you're having others deleted? What has been the reason given in the emails?
(Perhaps it's annoying flashing pictures. If that's the case - I applaud their actions. ;o)
CU Field is already popping.
Patience is a virtue. So is being polite. Demanding answers from people isn't really the best way to garner favor with them.
A tornado outbreak sequence (or extended tornado outbreak) is a period of continuous or nearly continuous high tornado activity consisting of a series of tornado outbreaks over multiple days with no or very few days lacking tornado outbreaks.
A tornado outbreak is the occurrence of multiple tornadoes spawned by the same synoptic scale weather system. Beyond this, there is no single agreed upon definition, and the number of tornadoes required to qualify as an outbreak typically are at least six to ten.
How do u know that is what it is, i didnt see anything wrong.
Hey CybrTeddy.
Doesn't look like it.
When you've been on the blog during several troll attacks, you tend to spot how they act rather quickly. Ask anybody else that has been here for a while..
CSU releases theirs on April 4.
CSU on April 4 and TSR on April 5.NOAA around the third week of May.
If we were to transition to an el niño during the peak of hurricane season would that cause more storms to take a track closer to the islands or united states, or would the effect of el niño be late for this season?
Thank You in Advance
Going into Meterology next Semester.
Yes, I've been keeping tabs on all the models, and we could be looking at a significant tornado outbreak coming into April. So far, 2012 has been beating all other tornado seasons, including last year, at this time with both amount of storms and damage.
Anybody else see this?
El Niño does not typically have a direct effect on how tropical cyclones track during a year like that. However, with this year featuring a cooler than average Eastern Atlantic, it makes sense to have more storms form and hit closer to home.
Also relating to fires, firefighters are still struggling to get the upper hand on the one in Colorado, though the weather was a bit more helpful today with lighter winds. Apparently it started as a controlled burn, as far too many do.
Nothing much, just the potential big outbreak of Severe Weather I've been talking about for the next week. =P
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
453 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012
PRC107-282345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0071.120328T2053Z-120328T2345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
OROCOVIS PR-
453 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...
IN PUERTO RICO
OROCOVIS
* UNTIL 745 PM AST
* AT 451 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES
IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 745 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1820 6640 1817 6651 1822 6652 1825 6651
1826 6642 1826 6641
$$
OMS
Didn't look that bad, capes around 1500 and mildy curving hodographs, they looked best around TN, the 100+kt stuff is gone(on the GFS at least)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012
PRC013-065-141-290000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0072.120328T2104Z-120329T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-UTUADO PR-ARECIBO PR-
504 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO...UTUADO AND ARECIBO
* UNTIL 800 PM AST
* AT 503 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 800 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1840 6680 1840 6660 1831 6661 1825 6662
1825 6681
$$
EM
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