Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

PDS Watch until 6pm CDT

Quoting Grothar:


Or at 305 : Grother: I didn't know they were retiring the name Irene with Irma. Maybe someone posted this and I missed it. I miss a lot of things these days.

OH MY GOD! I've been watching for that forever! The only time I didn't check was yesturday... well there you go i guess.

Sahara dust over Atlantic today. MODIS satellite photo.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The storm near Ord, NE has a monster hail core

good updrafts

I guess they decided to skip out on Lee for retirement. Oh well...

None of the storms in KS seem to be surfaced based yet.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I guess they decided to skip out on Lee for retirement. Oh well...

and it did a lot of damg too

Quoting redux:


i want something where i can look at the storms in the areas affected.

you mean like GRlevel3??

which cell is going to drop a tornado 1st.... by the way. How populated is this area?

The Ord storm has a hook

Quoting AussieStorm:
which cell is going to drop a tornado 1st.... by the way. How populated is this area?

around 20 million within the mdt to high risk areas

Quoting AussieStorm:

you mean like GRlevel3??

i have the software. i dont know where to find the data. i am a novice at this.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Depends on what you consider to be "relevant data?"

Scott, what are your recommended MDA settings for GR2 again?

Irene deserved to be retired.That was the only storm to do any real damage.And you should see how popular she is around the internet.

I don't believe any of these storms will have tornadic potential till around 2 or 3 EST. So far none seemed to be based at the surface and we will have to wait till the area ahead of these storms clears up a bit.

where do you guys get the radial velocity maps? is that from GR2/3? I am trying to track the storms today while sitting at work =D

http://blog.newsok.com/nerdage/2012/04/14/norman- tornado-hits-near-speeding-bullet-comics/

U may find this interesting...

the one north of ness city got some rotation on dopp... and a hook to boot

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER
SOUTHWEST KS AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OK IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF...AIDING IN STORMS BECOMING SURFACE-BASED. VERY FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

Dr. Greg Forbes
26 minutes ago
TODAY
Storms are beginning to fire up on the dryline and there is certainly enough shear for them to develop tornadoes this afternoon and evening. Greatest threat area over south-central NE, central KS, northwest OK. TORCON – 9 in these areas.
Severe thunderstorms and a tornado threat in central and east NE, southeast SD, west and south IA, north and west MO, central and east KS, north and west OK except western panhandle, east TX panhandle, northwest TX from east of Midland to near Childress.
There is still some concern that the storm coverage may be spotty, but there is a high likelihood that they will be tornadic


from dr G facebook page

How do you use the GR2 analyst stuff, its confusing me...?

45% Tornado Probability has been pushed southward.

There is an awfully dense overcast over the Plains this afternoon.  This is going to be key in just how unstable it develops this afternoon. This is likely going to keep the outbreak down somewhat.   As of right now the only real area of sunshine is in Western Missouri.    Still a long ways to go for things to potentially clearly up, but as of now its looking like this is going to be dynamically driven.

 

45% tornado threat expanded to cover central KS

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
45% tornado threat expanded to cover central KS

Might want to expand for a possible area of 60% for later today. Who knows.

Quoting ILwthrfan:
There is an awfully dense overcast over the Plains this afternoon.  This is going to be key in just how unstable it develops this afternoon.  As of right now the only real area of sunshine is in Western Missouri.

 

Its really starting to clear out in southern Nebraska now.

Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 165



Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 141541
WOU5

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

TORNADO WATCH 165 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC007-009-025-027-029-033-041-047-051-053-055-057 -063-065-069-
077-081-083-089-095-097-101-105-113-119-123-135-13 7-141-143-145-
147-151-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-175-179-18 3-185-195-201-
142300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0165.120414T1545Z-120414T2300Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER BARTON CLARK
CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE
DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD
GOVE GRAHAM GRAY
HARPER HASKELL HODGEMAN
JEWELL KINGMAN KIOWA
LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MEADE MITCHELL NESS
NORTON OSBORNE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT
RENO REPUBLIC RICE
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SALINE SCOTT SEWARD
SHERIDAN SMITH STAFFORD
TREGO WASHINGTON


OKC003-045-047-053-059-093-151-153-142300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0165.120414T1545Z-120414T2300Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA ELLIS GARFIELD
GRANT HARPER MAJOR
WOODS WOODWARD


ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...TOP...GID...GLD...ICT...

Quoting ILwthrfan:
There is an awfully dense overcast over the Plains this afternoon.  This is going to be key in just how unstable it develops this afternoon.  As of right now the only real area of sunshine is in Western Missouri.

 

84 hour water vapor forecast..Link

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Its really starting to clear out in southern Nebraska now.

Not seeing it?

Quoting ILwthrfan:

Not seeing it?

The cloud layer in that area is really starting to thin out. You can see the ground in some areas.

Quoting hydrus:
84 hour water vapor forecast..Link

Hey Hydrus, early start this morning wouldn't you say?

Be aware, be prepared, help & inform someone who may not know this is coming.


From Joplin last year..

SSE of Oneil and ENE of Broken Bow:

Greeley county

Possible Meso and hook developing.

X1 70 dBZ 37,000 ft. 56 kg/mē 100% chance 100% chance 3.50 in. 29 knots SW (234)



There is also a vortex signature in Puerto Rico for some reason.


Edit:

S0 73 dBZ 37,000 ft. 62 kg/mē 100% chance 100% chance >4.00 in. 29 knots WSW (237)


Same cell. It's already old though.

Reflectivity is in the white, above 75. Radar says 78.

New MD is out concerning the issuance of another PDS Tornado Watch.

This guy has a decent meso starting to show up on radar.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1157 AM AST SAT APR 14 2012

PRC017-054-091-145-141900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0124.120414T1557Z-120414T1900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARCELONETA PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
1157 AM AST SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARCELONETA...FLORIDA...MANATI AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 300 PM AST

* AT 1155 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES
INDICATE THAT ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR
OVER THE AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE HEAVY SHOWERS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL AS FLOODING IN ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6635 1844 6635 1835 6638 1837 6639
1838 6642 1835 6657 1841 6657 1839 6659
1843 6658 1848 6659 1850 6657 1848 6647
1850 6642

$$

JJA

~3 hours to start of major tornado threat.


Storms beginning to develop. 45% tornado probability
here from the SPC, TOR:CON up to a 9/10 (might be 10/10 later today), STP the highest since April 27th, 2011, PDS Tornado Watch.

It's all in place people for a major outbreak today.

Lots of clouds and early convection across the high risk area right now. This could limit instability some.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Lots of clouds and early convection across the high risk area right now. This could limit instability some.

SPC does not expect this to be much of a limiting factor however. Saying this because of enlarging 45% corridor.

Any live streams from Oklahoma,Kansas and Nebraska?

First time I have ever seen the SPC have all severe weather types list as "high"Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High High

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High High

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High High

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Any live streams from Oklahoma,Kansas and Nebraska?

Tons Link

Thanks 4 #830, pat. just went looking 4 that.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141627Z - 141830Z

INITIAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. A PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

LATE THIS MORNING STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION FROM NCNTRL THROUGH SERN NEB. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
ARE SLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND STORMS REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE A SFC STABLE LAYER WITH AN INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS MODERATE MUCAPE
OVER CNTRL AND SRN NEB. WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER WILL LIFT
NWD...AND AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE AND LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT
FROM THE SW...AN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD EVOLVE IN THIS
REGION...PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED UPDRAFTS. SOME OF
THE STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NCNTRL KS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO SCNTRL NEB BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 50-60 KT LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NWD THROUGH KS AND INTO
SRN NEB LATER TODAY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET
CONTRIBUTING TO VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LONG TRACK TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 04/14/2012


ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 40969692 40349634 40039723 40049995 41049978 41629860
40969692

Storm showing organisation near Burdett with meso, looks like it may be tornado warned soon.

Guys there is no way this outbreak will be anywhere near the ones we had last year based on looking at several factors here and this being one of them.



Lots of clouds and rain.

Alright I'm here guys.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Alright I'm here guys.

Never knew you were gone.