Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

+47

A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

Categories: Severe Weather Tornado

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1401 - 1451

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 — Blog Index

1401. hurricanehunter27 10:51 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Here quickly!!! Link This is one of the best looking tornadoes I'v ever watched. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1402. ScottLincoln 10:51 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Starting to look more like a debris ball type hook than a regular hook echo. Might be indicative of debris... but that doesn't help us much at this point because we already know the large tornado is on the ground. Watch out Langley, KS. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1593

1403. hydrus 10:51 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THICK STRATUS RELATED TO THE ADVECTION OF MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM NRN TX INTO CNTRL OK AND CNTRL KS...WITH SSELY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. A SPECIAL 17Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER NEAR 650 MB...WITH RELATIVELY COOL...BUT MOIST...PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES CAPPING INCREASING AFTER 21Z OVER PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN OK. THUS...THE THREAT APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL THERE...BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE ONGOING HIGH RISK AREA. THUS...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. TO THE W...CLEARING WAS TAKING PLACE ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE FROM SW KS INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND WRN OK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER WRN OK...AND AT OR ABOVE 80 F IN THE PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME UNCAPPED IN THESE AREAS. INDEED...SEVERE STORMS WERE ALREADY ONGOING OVER WRN KS INTO FAR NW OK ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH TOWERING CU FARTHER S. WAVES OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ON THE DRYLINE...WHERE CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING AS SURFACE WINDS VEER OVER THE PANHANDLES. THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SEVERE...AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEEDED TO INITIATE STORMS. MEANWHILE...LATEST RUC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE MORE ADVANCED THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -13 C TO THE DRYLINE BY 00Z. THIS WILL ONLY HELP TO INCREASE UPDRAFT ACCELERATION IN AN ALREADY VOLATILE SETUP. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE FROM NW OK ACROSS NRN OK INTO CNTRL AND S-CNTRL KS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR. WITH ONGOING CELLS OVER CNTRL KS...THE LOCATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO PLAY A KEY ROLE IN TORNADOGENESIS AS SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THEM LATER. SOME OF THE CITIES WITH THE HIGHEST RISK INCLUDE ENID...PRATT...GREAT BEND...SALINA...HUTCHINSON...WICHITA. ...NRN KS/NEB... LARGE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN KS...WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES NOTED ON RADAR AND PROBABLY TORNADOES. THESE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NEWD INTO NEB WHERE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT...SOME OF THESE HP CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY BOW WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. ANOTHER LIKELY AREA OF SUPERCELL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM NWRN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL NEB. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CU FIELD...W OF THE ONGOING KS ACTIVITY...AND E OF THE DRYLINE. BACKED SURFACE FLOW OVER NEB...ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPING TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. STRONG TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. ..JEWELL.. 04/14/2012 Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

1404. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:52 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Oh my god. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25352

1405. RTSplayer 10:53 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
In...Credible. My God what a storm. Which Cell is that again? Justin Robets' storm... Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1406. hurricanehunter27 10:53 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
I hope it does not hit a town. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1407. MAweatherboy1 10:53 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: This is one of the best looking tornadoes I'v ever watched. Absolutely epic. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379

1408. MAweatherboy1 10:54 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: I hope it does not hit a town. Marquette may be in the way... If it misses there its mostly rural Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379

1409. hurricanehunter27 10:55 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Oh my god. Look at Justin Roberts it was insane. He is only 1 or 2 miles from the tornado and omg it just got bigger. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1410. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:55 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
This violent tornado is about to hit Langley. We should see a debris ball appear on radar shortly. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25352

1411. hydrus 10:55 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
This map shows all the chasers names and location...Link Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

1413. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:56 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
It has horizontal vortices! Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25352

1414. RTSplayer 10:56 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
OMG horizontal vortices. Very violent tornado. Maybe its a EF4 right now. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1415. hurricanehunter27 10:57 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Wow its got satellite tornadoes coming off it. AKA horizontal vortices. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1417. IceCoast 10:58 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

1418. RTSplayer 10:58 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
It may even be trying to drop a satellite vortex on the left side. Very much debris and very violent. One of the best videos I've ever seen. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1419. CJ5 10:59 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
great live tornado on the grounf video here check micheal wuz www.torndaovideos.net click on micheal wuzberger Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1709

1420. MAweatherboy1 10:59 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Imagine being Justin Roberts right now... That close to so much power Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379

1421. hurricanehunter27 10:59 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Well we were wondering when the tornadoes would start showing up. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1422. BahaHurican 10:59 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman: Second pot of coffee just made. Gonna be a long night I'm afraid. My folks are terrified of these things so for Mother's day Mom is getting one of those NOAA radio thingy's. Wonder if I can get one directly from the NOAA website. I think I'd sleep in the basement on night like this... really scary situation 4 pple in the area. Quoting wunderkidcayman: so guys whats up with the possible STS that will form in Atlantic or did models droped it Still on the maps... due to initate 2morrow. Quoting SouthDadeFish: Honestly, I haven't been that impressed thus far from this outbreak (which is a very good thing). Seems like most of the tornado reports were very brief touchdowns. Now that doesn't mean it can't get worse, but were are approaching the traditional diurnal peak for tornado formation. I thought the worst of it isn't due until tonight. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682

1423. RTSplayer 11:00 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Oh my god. I haven't figured out if that's the same storm or another one... Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1424. JTDailyUpdate 11:00 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
IT's live on the weather channel Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 247

1425. hurricanehunter27 11:01 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
I know everyone is looking at the wedge cell but let me point out every other cell is now looking just as dangerous. The southern most KS storm looking really bad. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1426. JTDailyUpdate 11:02 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Link for Radio Feed Link Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 247

1427. ScottLincoln 11:03 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This violent tornado is about to hit Langley. We should see a debris ball appear on radar shortly. Langley isn't that big. It already seems to have had a psuedo-debris appearance for several scans. Probably dust from the fields or some light structure debris. Luckily a mostly rural area thus far. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1593

1428. MAweatherboy1 11:04 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Look out Nashville, KS from the south Kansas storm Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379

1429. RTSplayer 11:05 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
HOLY! Here fast My goodness WTF? Is that thing anti-cyclonic? That's very rare for so strong a tornado to be rotating clockwise? Maybe the film is playing tricks on me or something? Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1430. Bluestorm5 11:07 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Salina, KS is a decent sized town. I've been there at least twice when I was on trips to the Rockies. Btw, that's a big tornado on Kurt's stream!!! Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3683

1431. CaicosRetiredSailor 11:07 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
... Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5139

1432. MAweatherboy1 11:08 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: Salina, KS is a decent sized town. I've been there at least twice when I was on trips to the Rockies. Btw, that's a big tornado on Kurt's stream!!! And getting bigger! Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379

1433. hurricanehunter27 11:09 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Its a cone now. Seems very strong still. Btw the guy on the phone with the news is dead wrong its still very strong and on the ground. Edit: Its got skinny again will likely die and reform. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1434. IceCoast 11:09 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Still going strong. Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

1435. ncstorm 11:09 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: And getting bigger! TWC said its affecting only rural areas? Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8489

1436. MAweatherboy1 11:10 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: TWC said its affecting only rural areas? Thank God yes Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379

1437. BahaHurican 11:11 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Hydrus, don't 4get 2 hit enter before and after your [img] code.... makes 4 better readability and viewing. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682

1438. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:11 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
who do i see JFV on chaser vid comments Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40653

1439. hurricanehunter27 11:13 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Southern KS storm seems to be very strong as well. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1440. LargoFl 11:14 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 603 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 KSC155-142315- /O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120414T2315Z/ RENO KS- 603 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL RENO COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT... AT 601 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ABBYVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NICKERSON AND WILLOWBROOK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADOES AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW! && LAT...LON 3818 9823 3816 9821 3816 9815 3818 9814 3818 9810 3817 9784 3798 9804 3802 9833 TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 223DEG 31KT 3806 9813 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.00IN $$ KLEINSASSER Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1441. CJ5 11:14 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Dave Howard has a beauty live at tornadovideos.net Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1709

1442. Doppler22 11:14 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
The people north of Medicine Lodge, KS and in Salina shuld watch out... also the people in Alva, OK have a descent cell coming for them Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 1253

1443. MrstormX 11:14 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
The Salina tornado seems like it is very close or even over Falun, Oklahoma which is a very tiny town. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4233

1444. redux 11:15 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
it appears to me, the tornado moving toward salina will come very close to the town. Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 183

1445. nigel20 11:15 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Good evening all! I see that tornadoes are popping up all over the place...luckily most are missing populated areas for the moment Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

1446. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:16 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
this stupid computres suks right now may have to shut it down completly remove the cpu cooling fan an alum cooler coils clean it and put it back together since yesterday pissing me right off can't see anything or loadf anything Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40653

1447. Doppler22 11:17 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting nigel20: Good evening all! I see that tornadoes are popping up all over the place...luckily most are missing populated areas for the moment Except for Salina because that is a pretty good size town Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 1253

1448. Tropicsweatherpr 11:17 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
I have to give kudos to TWC as they are having a complete coverage with stormchaser videos,reporting from the field in different locations and Dr Greg Forbes providing the expert analysis. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8263

1449. LargoFl 11:17 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
all over the place tonight.....................TORNADO WARNING IAC137-142330- /O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0005.120414T2306Z-120414T2330Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 606 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 604 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EMERSON...OR 36 MILES EAST OF OMAHA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ELLIOTT AND GRANT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 4114 9493 4107 9528 4107 9531 4105 9535 4110 9537 4111 9537 4112 9536 4116 9527 4115 9493 TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 247DEG 44KT 4108 9535 $$ BOUSTEAD/MAYES Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1451. hurricanehunter27 11:18 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Yah the southern storm has funnels and wants really badly to produce a large tornado. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

Viewing: 1401 - 1451

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters