Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

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1501. LargoFl 11:39 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
everyone is concentrating on the tornado's, which of course are bad tonight, but maybe to be an ongoing problem is the flooding, happening now and also, later on..down stream with some of those creeks and streambeds and maybe even a river or two......................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 620 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-150130 - CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA -AUDUBON-GUTHRIE- DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-W ARREN-MARION- MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-T AYLOR-RINGGOLD- DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DENISON...CARROLL...JEFFERSON...BOONE... AMES...MARSHALLTOWN...TOLEDO...AUDUBON...GUTHRIE CENTER...ADEL... DES MOINES...NEWTON...GRINNELL...ATLANTIC...GREENFIELD ... WINTERSET...INDIANOLA...KNOXVILLE...OSKALOOSA...C ORNING... CRESTON...OSCEOLA...CHARITON...ALBIA...OTTUMWA... BEDFORD... MOUNT AYR...LEON...CORYDON...CENTERVILLE...BLOOMFIELD 620 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF AND INTENSE HEAVY RAINFALL... IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BRIEF...AND INTENSE...HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE MOST EXTREME CASES...TWO TO TWO AND HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE ADDITIONAL INTENSE AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE URBAN FLOODING WILL CAUSE LOCAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS. IF THE STORMS TEND TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED. THIS IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY. NEVER DRIVE TO FLOODED ROADS. $$ Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1502. SouthDadeFish 11:39 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: Looks like the supercell near Salina is going through a lull right now. If it can just keep this up for another 10 minutes or so without recycling a new RFD, Salina will likely live to see another day. Probably will get a good bit of hail nonetheless, but yes they may luck out! Perfect time to end a cycle. Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418

1503. ScottLincoln 11:39 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: Was probably a high-end EF4. Quoting RTSplayer: Well, we saw it live on the chaser's live stream. Horizontal vortices and a few attempts to put down vertical satellite vortices. It was easily EF3 and maybe EF4 or 5... Very violent and very debris filled too. Good thing was it wasn't hitting much at the time. It was in very rural areas. It could easily get rated EF1-2. Maybe a different story if it had hit a town. We'll know in the coming days. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1592

1504. hurricanehunter27 11:39 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: good nite to you Lol I'm not going to bed :) Was saying goodnight to Plaza. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1506. Bluestorm5 11:40 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: Was probably a high-end EF4. not that high, I would think... I think it's a high end EF3 or low end EF4 though. I could see rotations around the main tornado. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3649

1507. SouthDadeFish 11:40 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: Was probably a high-end EF4. May be hard to get good damage estimates since thankfully it didn't go over many structures. Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418

1509. Bluestorm5 11:41 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: It was in very rural areas. It could easily get rated EF1-2. Maybe a different story if it had hit a town. We'll know in the coming days. true... Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3649

1510. Speeky 11:41 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
this looks pretty impressive Member Since: April 10, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 263

1511. LargoFl 11:41 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
the one nearing Saline has been confirmed.......................SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 631 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 KSC169-150000- /O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-120415T0000Z/ SALINE KS- 631 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SALINE COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT... AT 630 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SMOLAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF VEHICLES LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SALINA...GYPSUM...NEW CAMBRIA AND SALINA AIRPORT. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 241 AND 266. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 135 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 95. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3895 9737 3893 9737 3892 9738 3887 9736 3872 9737 3861 9767 3861 9787 3866 9793 3875 9793 3896 9779 TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 226DEG 29KT 3877 9770 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...SIGNIFICANT HAIL...1.75IN $$ BILLINGS Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1512. Bluestorm5 11:44 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Aw d* it. I think the tornado is on ground again now. Now it's going to shave the southern part of Salina off. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments:** 3649

1513. CybrTeddy 11:44 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
FWIW, 18z GFS is much stronger with a possible Alberto by Tuesday, 1001 mb. Back to tornadoes. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1514. BahaHurican 11:44 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
If it went over roads / power grid, there may be sufficient data to support EF3. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17672

1515. hurricanehunter27 11:44 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Storm seems to be intensifying near Salina. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1516. ScottLincoln 11:44 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: the one nearing Saline has been confirmed....................... It was confirmed... earlier. The storm has weakened substantially and may be going through a brief period of no tornado. Still has high tops and a hail core, could recycle in the near future with a new RFD and thus a new potential tornado. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1592

1517. hurricanehunter27 11:46 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican: If it went over roads / power grid, there may be sufficient data to support EF3. What if it tore off sections of road? Or dug up the ground a couple feet? Is that not enough for EF4/EF5. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1518. redux 11:46 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
well the twc just had the guy who shot the video on the phone...he was still with the cell and did not see a tornado. Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 183

1519. SouthDadeFish 11:46 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: It was confirmed... earlier. The storm has weakened substantially and may be going through a brief period of no tornado. Still has high tops and a hail core, could recycle in the near future with a new RFD and thus a new potential tornado. Yeah, judging by the latest radar frames it looks like the tornado lifted just in time. The ex-hook area went right over the city of Salina. Wow, that would have been a nightmare. Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418

1520. Bluestorm5 11:46 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Storm seems to be intensifying near Salina. disagree... it's weakening. Recycling is my best guess. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3649

1521. Thundercloud01221991 11:46 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
I am very concerned with the storms in northern OK both have TVSs on them and probably are very close to producing tornadoes Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3671

1522. LargoFl 11:47 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 536 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL MO HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSOURI... PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY. THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/. && MOC053-152236- /O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0025.120415T0815Z-120416T1443Z/ /BONM7.1.ER.120415T0815Z.120415T1200Z.120415T1443 Z.UU/ 536 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL MO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE. * FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING. * AT 4:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.5 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 16.5 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. * AT 16.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS NEAR THE CREEK FLOOD. && LATEST LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST PETITE SALINE CREEK BOONVILLE 16 13.5 SAT 04 PM 16.5 SUNDAY MORNING $$ Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1523. CybrTeddy 11:47 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Tornado might have touched down briefly in Salina after weakening.. but I think they where spared. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1524. nervouspete 11:47 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: Aw d** it. I think the tornado is on ground again now. Now it's going to shave the southern part of Salina off.* Argh. Hope not. It'd be nice if it hopped neatly over the place and kept on ploughing empty fields. :( Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

1526. WxGeekVA 11:49 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Salina TV station Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323

1527. hurricanehunter27 11:49 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: disagree... it's weakening. Recycling is my best guess. It has already weakened. It is starting to strengthen/organize IMO. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1528. AstroHurricane001 11:49 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Anybody have live streaming video showing Salina, KS? Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1529. hurricanehunter27 11:50 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Dodge city is starting to have thunderstorm initiation again. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1530. BahaHurican 11:50 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: What if it tore off sections of road? Or dug up the ground a couple feet? Is that not enough for EF4/EF5. That's the stuff Isaw in EF4 / EF5 reports fr. AL last year. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17672

1531. ncstorm 11:52 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Tornado on the ground heading for New Cambria Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8462

1532. redux 11:52 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
confirmed tornado on the ground in salina source: KSN TV http://www.ksn.com/content/weather/liveradar.aspx Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 183

1533. RTSplayer 11:52 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
they just said they've confirmed a tornado on the ground again for the Salina Cell... Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1534. ScottLincoln 11:53 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: It has already weakened. It is starting to strengthen/organize IMO. There we go... the low-level rotation is back. Corresponds with the new reports of a tornado once again. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1592

1535. nigel20 11:53 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4541

1536. nervouspete 11:53 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Tornado on the ground North of New Cambria according to KSN. Wonder if it weakened? Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

1537. hurricanehunter27 11:53 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Omg the storm in Northern OK is really strong. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1538. 1900hurricane 11:54 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Dodge city is starting to have thunderstorm initiation again. Looks like it. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

1539. wxgeek723 11:55 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
I would be crying happiness and gratitude if I was a Salina resident right now. Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 2350

1540. hurricanehunter27 11:55 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting 1900hurricane: Looks like it. Is the dry line now moving to the West!? Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1541. BahaHurican 11:56 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
That KS one Skipped I70, too, it sees..... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17672

1542. RTSplayer 11:57 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Omg the storm in Northern OK is really strong. that was the original Woodward tornado. It's been continuously tornado warned for a very long time now. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1543. ScottLincoln 11:57 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Is the dry line now moving to the West!? Maybe an outflow headed west about to hit the dryline. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1592

1544. Speeky 11:57 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
a lot of possible tornadoes this is in western nebraska Member Since: April 10, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 263

1545. SouthDadeFish 11:58 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Looks like the cell near Salina has touched down again or is right on the verge if it. Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418

1546. 1900hurricane 11:58 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Is the dry line now moving to the West!? It might be. They do that sometimes around this time of day. It might end up staying in that general area until the cold front catches up with it. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

1547. Thundercloud01221991 11:59 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Johnathan Kriegh just reported a large tornado on the ground with the Salina cell Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3671

1548. RTSplayer 11:59 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Is the dry line now moving to the West!? There's kind of a second dry line a good bit to the west, on RGB satellite anyway. It's kinda wrapped into the low. So maybe gets some spin-ups off that too. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1549. hurricanehunter27 11:59 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Torando is back on the ground near Saline! Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1551. nigel20 12:02 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4541

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