Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

+47

A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

Categories: Severe Weather Tornado

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1551 - 1601

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 — Blog Index

1551. nigel20 12:02 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4541

1552. CybrTeddy 12:03 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
It begins. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1553. MAweatherboy1 12:03 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 659 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 KSC041-143-150030- /O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120415T0030Z/ OTTAWA KS-DICKINSON KS- 659 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON AND SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT... AT 656 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NILES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A LARGE TORNADO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NILES. IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF VEHICLES LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NILES...SOLOMON...TALMAGE AND MANCHESTER. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267 AND 271. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3897 9755 3913 9737 3913 9717 3899 9714 3889 9738 3893 9739 3893 9738 3896 9738 3896 9756 TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 227DEG 32KT 3894 9747 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...SIGNIFICANT HAIL...1.75IN $$ LEIGHTON Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6373

1554. Xyrus2000 12:03 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman: Geez. That one and this one outside Kingman, KS mean business. That storm down near Alva is on a bee-line toward Witchita. Seems like it's getting a bit stronger. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

1555. hurricanehunter27 12:04 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Wow these two cells. Located Northern OK Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1556. RTSplayer 12:04 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
GFS shows peak 500mb vorticity at about 4am to 10am tomorrow morning. Low's peak intensity is forecast as 986mb between 7am and 1pm tomorrow. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1557. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:04 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
And let the main event begin... 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NOTED OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT / A VORT MAX NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER SERN WY/NERN CO. WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INTO NERN NEB...NOTABLE BACKING IS PROJECTED ACROSS FAR ERN NEB AND IA. AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS.../50 KT AT 1000 FT ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO...WITH HODOGRAPHS LARGELY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DESTABILIZING/RECOVERING AIR MASS...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS POSSIBLE. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1558. 1900hurricane 12:04 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0534 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO...NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 167...169...171... VALID 142357Z - 150100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 167...169...171...CONTINUES. A NEW WW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN NEB FOR POTENTIAL NEW DEVELOPMENT AND ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF AN EXITING MCS. INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN IA...AND NRN MO...ESPECIALLY IN ADVANCE OF A BOWING SEGMENT OVER SWRN IA. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NOTED OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT / A VORT MAX NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER SERN WY/NERN CO. WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INTO NERN NEB...NOTABLE BACKING IS PROJECTED ACROSS FAR ERN NEB AND IA. AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS.../50 KT AT 1000 FT ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO...WITH HODOGRAPHS LARGELY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DESTABILIZING/RECOVERING AIR MASS...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS POSSIBLE. ..HURLBUT.. 04/14/2012 ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...L BF... LAT...LON 41909263 40839201 40019264 39869433 39799516 40039728 40289884 40609973 41289942 41559649 41749474 41909263 Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

1560. hurricanehunter27 12:07 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: And let the main event begin... 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NOTED OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT / A VORT MAX NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER SERN WY/NERN CO. WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INTO NERN NEB...NOTABLE BACKING IS PROJECTED ACROSS FAR ERN NEB AND IA. AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS.../50 KT AT 1000 FT ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO...WITH HODOGRAPHS LARGELY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DESTABILIZING/RECOVERING AIR MASS...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS POSSIBLE. Thats right everyone...We are now just starting to get into the real good stuff or bad stuff depending on how you look at it. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1562. Xyrus2000 12:09 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Wow these two cells. Located Northern OK Yep. They have some spin now it seems. :P Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

1563. Thundercloud01221991 12:09 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
a new line forming new Dodge City... could quickly go tornatic Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3671

1564. hurricanehunter27 12:10 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman: Yup, another to watch for sure. That entire stretch is cooking ground. Southern one of those to in OK is strongest actually rotation wise. Also Kurt Hulst has a very large funnel on Saline storm. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1565. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:10 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Large, damaging tornado headed towards a city with a population over 50,000. Bad situation? Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1566. weathergeek5 12:10 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
KFOR hasLink live coverage Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

1567. 1900hurricane 12:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman: Yup, another to watch for sure. That entire stretch is cooking ground. You got that right. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

1568. Chucktown 12:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Tornado forming live on KFOR Link Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1390

1570. hurricanehunter27 12:12 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Large, damaging tornado headed towards a city with a population over 50,000. Bad situation? Its not on the ground but the funnel on it is looking dangerous. Not a funnel anymore its now on the ground. I'm typing this as I'm watching. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1571. Thundercloud01221991 12:12 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
live tornado on Weather channel Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3671

1572. Xyrus2000 12:12 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Hutchinson, KS is currently in nail-biter. Here's hoping that hook misses them to the south. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

1573. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:13 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Its not on the ground but the funnel on it is looking dangerous. Not a funnel anymore its now on the ground. I'm typing this as I'm watching. No, this is the Salina, KS tornado, not the one in Oklahoma. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1574. entrelac 12:13 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
. Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

1575. Chucktown 12:13 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting entrelac: FYI, you linked back to the blog. Should work now Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1390

1576. Speeky 12:14 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
this looks threating this is in western nebraska Member Since: April 10, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 263

1577. Bluestorm5 12:14 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Going to be a long night for Kansas/Nebraska Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3649

1578. hurricanehunter27 12:14 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
.. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1579. weathergeek5 12:15 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Here is the live stream link: Link Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

1580. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:15 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Multivortex tornado live Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1581. hurricanehunter27 12:17 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Lol I know which one I'm talking about. I am looking at the Saline storm with a funnel no tornado. Nvm I miss read you sry!!!! Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1583. hurricanehunter27 12:19 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Sweet dual tornadoes! Edit: Was only on the ground for a short time. Also I was watching the Saline storm and its still a funnel. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1584. jamesrainier 12:20 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69

1585. CybrTeddy 12:20 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Dual tornadoes on News9.com! Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1586. Xyrus2000 12:21 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Sister twisters by the Dacoma cell. Large tornado on the ground. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

1587. CybrTeddy 12:21 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Derbies ball on radar heading for Dacoma! Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1588. Bluestorm5 12:21 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Wow, what a nice and clear live stream of tornado in Oklahoma. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3649

1589. 1900hurricane 12:21 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Sweet dual tornadoes! Where are they? I don't have access to any sound volume at the moment. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

1590. CybrTeddy 12:22 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Looks like the 2nd tornado sucked the energy away from the 1st tornado, killed both of them out. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1592. hurricanehunter27 12:23 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting 1900hurricane: Where are they? I don't have access to any sound volume at the moment. Very Northern OK. Those cells are going to be a huge pain the butt for Wichita. Its reforming. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1593. Xyrus2000 12:23 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Man, it changes so fast! The tornadoes seem to have lifted for the moment. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

1594. RTSplayer 12:23 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Something blew up. there appears to be some sort of accelerant burning. Gas, propane, etc. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

1595. shadoclown45 12:23 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Wow that fire. Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 107

1596. CybrTeddy 12:23 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Fire being shown on News9.com, the smoke is being sucked up into the circulation. VERY cool. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1597. weatherh98 12:23 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman: Geez. That one and this one outside Kingman, KS mean business. And it has a nice looking hail core Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

1598. WxGeekVA 12:23 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Rotation has weakened on that storm... Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323

1599. 1900hurricane 12:25 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

1600. hurricanehunter27 12:25 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000: Man, it changes so fast! The tornadoes seem to have lifted for the moment. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473

1601. brendanjames 12:25 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Multivortex tornado live wow that was nuts watching that second tornado come down. Member Since: January 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 46

Viewing: 1551 - 1601

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters