Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

Categories: Severe Weather Tornado

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2101. ScottLincoln 3:03 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: Wichita area storm has had it's near-surface tornadic circulation recycle, then the new circulation died off quickly. Reduced chance of a tornado right now, but obvious could recycle. Would put a probable area for recycle to be near or just east of Clearwater. ...and I think there it goes. Looks like a weak TS signature just SE of Clearwater. -25kts to +50kts about 5 pixels apart. Maybe not a tornado, but a circulation could be forming. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1482

2102. hurricanehunter27 3:03 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000: No, the radar is shooting up into the storm so they are losing resolution. Yah I'm starting to agree with this a little more now. I can somewhat make out a debris ball in Clearwater. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3381

2103. LargoFl 3:03 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 954 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 KSC173-150315- /O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-120415T0315Z/ SEDGWICK KS- 954 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEDGWICK COUNTY UNTIL 1015 PM CDT... AT 951 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF CLEARWATER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. CLEARWATER COULD BE HIT! THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF VEHICLES LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DOWNTOWN WICHITA...CLEARWATER...GODDARD...MULVANE...HAYSVIL LE...SOUTH WICHITA...WICHITA MID CONTINENT AIRPORT...MCCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE... WEST WICHITA...DERBY...EAST WICHITA...MAIZE...NORTHEAST WICHITA... PARK CITY...COLWICH...VALLEY CENTER...LAKE AFTON...OAKLAWN...BEL AIRE AND JABARA AIRPORT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW. && LAT...LON 3748 9780 3784 9752 3783 9715 3747 9716 TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 216DEG 28KT 3746 9751 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...SIGNIFICANT HAIL...2.50IN $$ KLEINSASSER Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22419

2105. RitaEvac 3:04 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Worse case situation is when Mike Seidel comes outta shelter and the NWS is in open field, with nothing around them Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8874

2106. ScottLincoln 3:05 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman: I agree. Neighboring NWS Radar sites aren't showing weakening. Neighboring radar sites are not seeing the near-surface circulation, they are seeing the mesocyclone. The mesocyclone does not appear to have weakened. The tornado is near-enough to the WFO Wichita radar that we can see actual tornadic circulations because it is sampling near to the surface. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1482

2107. NCHurricane2009 3:05 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
What's happening to the tornado warnings in Raymond and also the tornado warning in Wilsey? These warnings were posted here...but no follow-ups since then... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

2108. hurricanehunter27 3:05 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Strong TVS showing again on radar. If it cycled its finished now. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3381

2109. aspectre 3:05 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Live Video-streaming: In Clearwater, heading for arrival in Witchita within 15minutes Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

2110. TropicalAnalystwx13 3:05 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Let's not forget that the tornado that first formed north of Greensburg is still going very strong. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25143

2111. LargoFl 3:05 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman: Ouch omg, one of the area's could be downtown wichita.. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22419

2112. weatherh98 3:05 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Wow! This is gonna be bad baton down the hatches! Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

2113. RTSplayer 3:06 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
The saint john cell is in a spot where radar for wunderground isn't picking it up well. On the NWS radar it seems to be tightening up again. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

2114. weatherh98 3:06 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Radar is now to fuZzy cant tell yet, but consistent movement towards wichita. Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

2115. ScottLincoln 3:07 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Strong TVS showing again on radar. If it cycled its finished now. If it's a TVS from GR2Analyst, it's coming from the scans just above the ground. The lowest tilt is suggestive of a developing tornado; the tilts about 2000-5000ft above ground level are showing much stronger rotation. UPDATE: 0305UTC scan now shows stronger signature on reflectivity and velocity. Subtle TS signature continues. No debris on rho/cc yet. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1482

2116. hurricanehunter27 3:07 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Its back if it was ever gone. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3381

2117. hyperanthony 3:07 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Starting to have trouble with the picture on KSN... storm related? Member Since: July 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 37

2118. Chucktown 3:08 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hyperanthony: Starting to have trouble with the picture on KSN... storm related? Rain fade. Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1380

2119. Speeky 3:09 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
watch this live feed Link Member Since: April 10, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 263

2120. hurricanehunter27 3:09 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Did McConell AFB have a F5 before? Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3381

2121. weatherh98 3:09 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Its back if it was ever gone. Forbes said weakening Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

2122. Bluestorm5 3:09 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Well, I think tornado lifted... but I'm not sure. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3396

2123. hyperanthony 3:10 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
KSN is now telling their non-essential staff on-air to move to shelter. Member Since: July 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 37

2124. weatherh98 3:10 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Topeka is In buisiness and Wichita is shut down. Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

2125. Xyrus2000 3:10 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hyperanthony: Starting to have trouble with the picture on KSN... storm related? Yep. Static and occasional break ups now. They're evacuating non-essential personnel. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

2126. TropicalAnalystwx13 3:10 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1009 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS REISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 1100 PM CDT * AT 1007 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CLEARWATER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF VEHICLES LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DOWNTOWN WICHITA...GODDARD...MULVANE...HAYSVILLE...DERBY... WICHITA MID CONTINENT AIRPORT...SOUTH WICHITA...WEST WICHITA...MCCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE...MAIZE...EAST WICHITA...PARK CITY...VALLEY CENTER...NORTHEAST WICHITA...OAKLAWN...BEL AIRE...JABARA AIRPORT AND KECHI. THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 54. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 135 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 22. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW. && LAT...LON 3748 9768 3791 9745 3791 9716 3748 9715 TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 215DEG 25KT 3753 9744 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...SIGNIFICANT HAIL...2.50IN $$ Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25143

2127. CybrTeddy 3:10 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
NWS confirmed it is not weakening. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179

2128. weatherh98 3:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: Well, I think tornado lifted... but I'm not sure. Dont think so yet but I think it has weakend Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

2129. sunlinepr 3:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439

2130. WxGeekVA 3:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
NWS confirms large wedge tornado still on ground 3 minutes ago. EDIT: I think I heard the sirens through the TV broadcast Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3311

2131. redux 3:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
nws confirmed large tornado 3 minutes ago. sirens going again. source: KSN tv Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 183

2132. ScottLincoln 3:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
UPDATE: 0305 UTC scan... upper tilts are now indicating a strong enough TS to trigger a rare red TVS in GR2Analyst. NROT exceeding 2.0 and nearing 3.0 as low as 3000ft now. Not good. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1482

2133. oddspeed 3:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
live Witchita feed calling for all non-essential KSN-TV personnel to move to shelter Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 224

2134. Speeky 3:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting weatherh98: Forbes said weakening Forbes said the Greenburg tornado of 2007 was weakening. Member Since: April 10, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 263

2135. hurricanehunter27 3:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting weatherh98: Forbes said weakening He is dead wrong. NWS reports a large and deadly tornado 3 min ago. Also this. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3381

2136. Xyrus2000 3:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Large powerful tornado confirmed by NWS in southwest of Wichita. If it was cycling, it is done now. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

2137. Bluestorm5 3:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Is Wichita tornado still on ground, still 1/2 miles, still as strong as earlier? Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3396

2138. ncstorm 3:11 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
according to the sheriff dispatch, clearwater, ks has sustained heavy damage.. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8324

2139. TropicalAnalystwx13 3:12 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
This was the Greensburg tornado: Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25143

2140. weatherh98 3:12 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: NWS confirmed it is not weakening. Okay it's this dang radar fuZ Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

2141. hurricanehunter27 3:12 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: UPDATE: 0305 UTC scan... upper tilts are now indicating a strong enough TS to trigger a rare red TVS in GR2Analyst. NROT exceeding 2.0 and nearing 3.0 as low as 3000ft now. Not good. U missed the Greensburg Red TVS. It also had a Purple TVS for a little while. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3381

2142. photonchaser 3:12 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Mike Siedel says power is now out Member Since: June 3, 2004 Posts: 1 Comments: 134

2143. Bluestorm5 3:12 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: UPDATE: 0305 UTC scan... upper tilts are now indicating a strong enough TS to trigger a rare red TVS in GR2Analyst. NROT exceeding 2.0 and nearing 3.0 as low as 3000ft now. Not good. if this is from you, then Wichita is in HUGE TROUBLE. No more waiting. THE ACTION IS NOW!!!! GO TO BASEMENT!!! Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3396

2144. LargoFl 3:12 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
TORNADO WARNING KSC053-113-159-150400- /O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0033.120415T0310Z-120415T0400Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1010 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHWESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHERN RICE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 1100 PM CDT * AT 1005 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LYONS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF VEHICLES LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GENESEO...LITTLE RIVER...LYONS AND KANOPOLIS STATE PARK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE TORNADOES! TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW! TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA. && LAT...LON 3868 9802 3849 9777 3826 9819 3840 9834 TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 228DEG 37KT 3841 9816 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...SIGNIFICANT HAIL...1.75IN $$ SCHMINKE Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22419

2145. hurricanehunter27 3:13 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This was the Greensburg tornado: They are soooo lucky that did not hit them. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3381

2146. weatherh98 3:13 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
I see another tornAdo now Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

2147. hurricanehunter27 3:13 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: Is Wichita tornado still on ground, still 1/2 miles, still as strong as earlier? It might even be stronger all we know. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3381

2148. Bluestorm5 3:14 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Miranda Lambert concert in Wichita suspended due to tornado. Crowd told to stay in arena. ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?! Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3396

2149. weatherh98 3:14 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Forbes just agreed with me I'm so flattered Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031

2150. ScottLincoln 3:14 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: He is dead wrong. NWS reports a large and deadly tornado 3 min ago. Also this. Well, it WAS weakening. It just recycled in the last couple minutes. It quickly (within a few scans) went from nothing to strong tornado. He's not really wrong, just behind by 5-10 minutes. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1482

2151. ILwthrfan 3:14 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Haysville up next poulation: 10,826 Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1006

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