Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The big western US warmup getting underway, then the blob o'heat begins moving eastward by next weekend. The following maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

DAY 1


DAY 2


DAY 3


DAY 4


DAY 5

Quoting wxmod:


Have you seen any of the photos of the smog from India and China I've posted. That thick smog is changing the whole atmosphere, making the weather act weird, decreasing oxygen content, melting the ice cap. If you think coal or oil has more of an up side than solar, you will probably be voting for your own extinction.
The solar panels in India will also never be the cause of any war. They will just generate power. Pure and simple.

You ranted, and failed to answer my question, just like a dodgy politician.

Quoting Neapolitan:
The big western US warmup getting underway, then the blob o'heat begins moving eastward by next weekend. The following maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

DAY 1


DAY 2


DAY 3


DAY 4


DAY 5

Definitely a big warm up out west but that's probably the most blue we've seen on those maps in a while since that big rainstorm will keep the east in the cold.

Quoting Neapolitan:
The big western US warmup getting underway, then the blob o'heat begins moving eastward by next weekend. The following maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

DAY 1


DAY 2


DAY 3


DAY 4


DAY 5

It's gonna be cold here in Indiana for the next 5 days. High temps will be 10 degrees below normal!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
558 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201600 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
558 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THE SEABREEZE
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES INLAND
AND SOUTH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTH THROUGH LEE COUNTY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

COLSON

A single page that tells the story well and provides lots of interesting links. I bookmarked it.

Quoting Neapolitan:
The big western US warmup getting underway, then the blob o'heat begins moving eastward by next weekend. The following maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

DAY 1


DAY 2


DAY 3


DAY 4


DAY 5

I also notice that the departure from average low temperatures in South Florida is forecast to be 5-10 F above normal during all five days, even though the departure from average high temperatures in this region is significantly below normal each day.

Happy FRIDAY April 20th everybody! Today's forecast calls for sunny skies with some high clouds. Also, allergy sufferers may be around today as the pollen count is fairly elevated for this time of year. There is a risk for some decent rains on Sunday, which should help to clear the air.

Seriously though, this is the forecast for my area today interpreted from the model runs and pollen observations.

Good morning. Alberto,is that you lol. Of course,is 384 hours out and for sure this will change a lot. And let's see if other models join GFS later or not.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. Alberto,is that you lol. Of course,is 384 hours out and for sure this will change a lot. And let's see if other models join GFS later or not.

Which one are you referring to as "Alberto", the subtropical system in the central atlantic or the low near central America?

Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH EVEN SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THIS EVENT. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AS THIS WEATHER
SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Global Warming & 173 Climate Change Myths

Here is a summary of global warming and climate change myths, sorted by recent popularity vs what science says. Click the response for a more detailed response. You can also view them sorted by taxonomy, by popularity, in a print-friendly version, with short URLs or with fixed numbers you can use for permanent references.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

That website sounds much like a propaganda website. Useless.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Which one are you referring to as "Alberto", the subtropical system in the central atlantic or the low near central America?

CA.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. Alberto,is that you lol. Of course,is 384 hours out and for sure this will change a lot. And let's see if other models join GFS later or not.

I doubt it since the GFS is the only model that goes to 384 hours :)

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH EVEN SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THIS EVENT. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AS THIS WEATHER
SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

70 mph winds..almost tropical storm strength at times

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


CA.

+1

Quoting 1911maker:


I think you both make valid points. "old Stuff" might get tiring for the old timers, but this blog seems to get a lot of "new people". That old stuff is relevant to them, and might keep them coming back/interested. Eventuality they might start to contribute.

So keep addressing the "rants" politely as it does serve a useful function. I came to the blog to try and understand climate change. I needed exposure to the basics. The new people might need basics also.

Please see:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/classify.htm

For more information on what goes into the Drought Monitor. Also good to notice that long-term and short-term droughts defined differently and as such are calculated from different index blends.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I doubt it since the GFS is the only model that goes to 384 hours :)

What I meant is when the GFS timeframe reaches ten days (240 hours) other models like ECMWF will start to run and by then,we will see if GFS is alone or not.

Quoting Skeptic33:


That website sounds much like a propaganda website. Useless.

To a denialist, "propaganda" is synonymous with "the truth", so your confusion is understandable. And on a related note, you'll find more scientific truth--that is, what you refer to as "propaganda"--here:

http://www.wunderground.com/climate/facts.asp

Quoting LargoFl:
70 mph winds..almost tropical storm strength at times

Tropical Storm winds are 39 MPH, did you mean Hurricane strength ?

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What I meant is when the timeframe reaches ten days,other models like ECMWF will start to run and by then,we will see if GFS is alone or not.

Oh ok- I doubt any other models pick it up though

Link

That's pretty interesting.

Link

PROFESSOR MURRY SALBY

Chair of Climate, Macquarie University

Atmospheric Science, Climate Change and Carbon – Some Facts

Carbon dioxide is emitted by human activities as well as a host of natural processes. The satellite record, in concert with instrumental observations, is now long enough to have collected a population of climate perturbations, wherein the Earth-atmosphere system was disturbed from equilibrium. Introduced naturally, those perturbations reveal that net global emission of CO2 (combined from all sources, human and natural) is controlled by properties of the general circulation – properties internal to the climate system that regulate emission from natural sources. The strong dependence on internal properties indicates that emission of CO2 from natural sources, which accounts for 96 per cent of its overall emission, plays a major role in observed changes of CO2. Independent of human emission, this contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide is only marginally predictable and not controllable.

Professor Murry Salby holds the Climate Chair at Macquarie University and has had a lengthy career as a world-recognised researcher and academic in the field of Atmospheric Physics. He has held positions at leading research institutions, including the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Princeton University, and the University of Colorado, with invited professorships at universities in Europe and Asia. At Macquarie University, Professor Salby uses satellite data and supercomputing to explore issues surrounding changes of global climate and climate variability over Australia. Professor Salby is the author of Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics, and Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate due out in 2011. Professor Salby’s latest research makes a timely and highly-relevant contribution to the current discourse on climate.

Quoting Skeptic33:
Link

That's pretty interesting.

Link

PROFESSOR MURRY SALBY

Chair of Climate, Macquarie University

Atmospheric Science, Climate Change and Carbon %u2013 Some Facts

Carbon dioxide is emitted by human activities as well as a host of natural processes. The satellite record, in concert with instrumental observations, is now long enough to have collected a population of climate perturbations, wherein the Earth-atmosphere system was disturbed from equilibrium. Introduced naturally, those perturbations reveal that net global emission of CO2 (combined from all sources, human and natural) is controlled by properties of the general circulation %u2013 properties internal to the climate system that regulate emission from natural sources. The strong dependence on internal properties indicates that emission of CO2 from natural sources, which accounts for 96 per cent of its overall emission, plays a major role in observed changes of CO2. Independent of human emission, this contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide is only marginally predictable and not controllable.

Professor Murry Salby holds the Climate Chair at Macquarie University and has had a lengthy career as a world-recognised researcher and academic in the field of Atmospheric Physics. He has held positions at leading research institutions, including the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Princeton University, and the University of Colorado, with invited professorships at universities in Europe and Asia. At Macquarie University, Professor Salby uses satellite data and supercomputing to explore issues surrounding changes of global climate and climate variability over Australia. Professor Salby is the author of Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics, and Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate due out in 2011. Professor Salby%u2019s latest research makes a timely and highly-relevant contribution to the current discourse on climate.

For a man in his position, Salby seems to have an alarmingly poor understanding of the carbon cycle; perhaps I'll send him some remedial reading material so he can catch up. Something easy to start with, like perhaps Climate For Dummies, as he has a lot to learn..

I can show you others who disagree and are not getting millions of dollars for their ideas.Remember the center of earth is 1 million degrees hot,and the ice caps were suppose to be gone this year and the world is suppose too burn up this year.Can you say nuts!!!!

Uhhh... the Earth is about 5700 deg-C at it's core. That's hot, but nowhere near "a million".

I'll second the notion that it's distressing that an atmospheric physicist hasn't consulted with any geologists or biologists, apparently, on the workings and rates of processes involved in the carbon cycle. Egads.

Quoting MahFL:


How well does it work during the monsoon season ?

Pretty good actually. Link

As you can see, average solar insolation values for India are quite respectable.

Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


I also notice that the departure from average low temperatures in South Florida is forecast to be 5-10 F above normal during all five days, even though the departure from average high temperatures in this region is significantly below normal each day.

Dry air is awesome during the spring for that. Cool mornings (reminds you of the winter that has passed), but pleasant afternoons, with stable temps in the 70s and lower 80s.

Quoting Neapolitan:
To a denialist, "propaganda" is synonymous with "the truth", so your confusion is understandable. And on a related note, you'll find more scientific truth--that is, what you refer to as "propaganda"--here:

http://www.wunderground.com/climate/facts.asp

Dude. Why are you citing facts? Facts died yesterday. Facts' obit

Anybody catch the O6Z day 2 Convective Outlook for Florida? New day 2 will be out at 12:30 pm today. (CDT)



Sending this stuff your way from the middle...
:)

Excerpts...
ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...NOW IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS PROGGED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD THAT PERSISTS AMONG THE MODEL DATA...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EVOLUTION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PERHAPS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE MAY REMAIN WEAK TO
MODEST IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF
30-40 KT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...IF NOT BEFORE...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER IMPULSE. AS THIS OCCURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY HAIL.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What I meant is when the GFS timeframe reaches ten days (240 hours) other models like ECMWF will start to run and by then,we will see if GFS is alone or not.

Not to mention, by that time, the GFS would have dropped the feature several times, and completely changed.

I honestly don't understand why they run the GFS so far out, when its error rate is so alarmingly high past 7 days.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Anybody catch the O6Z day 2 Convective Outlook for Florida? New day 2 will be out at 12:30 pm today.



Sending this stuff your way from the middle...
:)

Excerpts...
ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...NOW IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS PROGGED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD THAT PERSISTS AMONG THE MODEL DATA...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EVOLUTION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PERHAPS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE MAY REMAIN WEAK TO
MODEST IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF
30-40 KT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...IF NOT BEFORE...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER IMPULSE. AS THIS OCCURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY HAIL.

thanks for this, we will really have to watch this one closely huh, rain we can use, the possible damaging winds are what I'm afraid of.alot of people here wont be listening to the possible warnings, maybe even sleeping when this comes thru..scary scenerio alright

Good Morning....
Trinidad weather now.

Heavy overcast, fog and drizzle, thunder close by, 1.25" yesterday, more to come.

Pretty normal conditions, for August.

Quoting MahFL:


Tropical Storm winds are 39 MPH, did you mean Hurricane strength ?

yes ty, i'm still not awake fully lol

Good Morning folks, I have a question, some of you are really good at this, how bad, wind wise, do you think it will be around the tampa bay area with this system moving towards us..would it be just a series of thunderstorms? like we get in the summertime?..or maybe worse

Quoting help4u:
I can show you others who disagree and are not getting millions of dollars for their ideas.Remember the center of earth is 1 million degrees hot,and the ice caps were suppose to be gone this year and the world is suppose too burn up this year.Can you say nuts!!!!

1. As noted by another poster, the core of the Earth is around 5700 F.

2. The projections as stated in the IPCC report show an ice free arctic summer between 2035 and 2050.

3. Only ignorant and/or unstable people think the world is going to end this year (by whatever means their conspiracy theories/gods/aliens/invisible unicorn monkeys tell them it will end).

Quoting Xyrus2000:


1. As noted by another poster, the core of the Earth is around 5700 F.

2. The projections as stated in the IPCC report show an ice free arctic summer between 2035 and 2050.

3. Only ignorant and/or unstable people think the world is going to end this year (by whatever means their conspiracy theories/gods/aliens/invisible unicorn monkeys tell them it will end).

interesting thought there, what would happen, if what some say( and i dont believe this for a minute) but what would happen if the poles ..reversed?

hmmmm.....2012 is a significant year from an historical and astronomical perspective. According to astronomers the Poles of our Sun will reverse towards the end of 2012. Under the right conditions this could have a serious knock-on effect on Earth. A sudden twist in the orientation of the Sun’s poles could also reverse the Earth’s poles as well.

This GFS run has it down to 985 mb.

Quoting LargoFl:
thanks for this, we will really have to watch this one closely huh, rain we can use, the possible damaging winds are what I'm afraid of.alot of people here wont be listening to the possible warnings, maybe even sleeping when this comes thru..scary scenerio alright

YW.
The way the models have been back and forth on this, and just observing the way severe works... one day depends some on what happened the day before... you won't know for sure till it gets there. jmo. Severe hail also a possible. You just need to keep your eyes and ears open.
:)

Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks, I have a question, some of you are really good at this, how bad, wind wise, do you think it will be around the tampa bay area with this system moving towards us..would it be just a series of thunderstorms? like we get in the summertime?..or maybe worse

Strong storms bordering on severe. Expect 40-50 mph wind gusts, with the possibility of 60 mph winds in the severe ones. There won't be much in the way of sustained high winds, as the core of the energy is in the middle levels.

Quoting Neapolitan:
The big western US warmup getting underway, then the blob o'heat begins moving eastward by next weekend. The following maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

DAY 1


DAY 2


DAY 3


DAY 4


DAY 5

Neo - Thanks as always for the excellent graphics!

Quoting LargoFl:
hmmmm.....2012 is a significant year from an historical and astronomical perspective. According to astronomers the Poles of our Sun will reverse towards the end of 2012. Under the right conditions this could have a serious knock-on effect on Earth. A sudden twist in the orientation of the Sun’s poles could also reverse the Earth’s poles as well.

Uh... where the heck do you see that? (the sudden change of the sun's poles, and how the sun's orientation could influence earth's)

If you're talking about the solar max... that won't change our magnetic poles at all. Based on historical geology (rock cores), the earth's poles DO change, but not catastrophically in a matter of months. More like a matter of decades or years, in a much more chaotic fashion.

This run shows a strengthening system up the East Coast

Hooray! Looks like 2 inches of rain, maybe a little more locally but nothing outrageous for FL.

The NAM is following the GFS closely.

Quoting LargoFl:
interesting thought there, what would happen, if what some say( and i dont believe this for a minute) but what would happen if the poles ..reversed?

I believe the poles have reversed at least 4 times in the past. If that would happen, North America would be on the Australian time zone.