U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Hey Gro! Nice post man.
Link
The global liquid freshwater ball is
based on the statistics that
fresh Groundwater volume is 2,526,000 cubic miles,
fresh Lakes 21,830 mi3
Swamps 2,752 mi3
Rivers 509 mi3
Their sphere would only be 170 miles in diameter or from Tampa to Jacksonville.
WOW, as a water manager, that seems SMALL!
Double checked with wiki P numbers in km3 and it came out the same.
Adding in the glaciers and ice caps the sphere reaches from San Antonio, Texas to Dallas. That is 251 miles or 404km.
That is IT, the sum total of freshwater.(oh, not counting atmosphere but that is tiny.(.001% of global water...little more than what is in swamps)
Thanks Pedley #456
It's OK..
I see it on your profile pics..
A very humbling reality to be sure..
Thanks for that
There it is....
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/05/uah-global-te mperature-update-for-april-2012-0-30c/#comments
Most science at universities is done through grants; either from federally-sponsored groups (like the National Science Foundation) or private entities. Once a professor at a university reaches tenure, they can general do whatever research in their field of their choosing, as long as they secure funding.
Private companies are obviously different.
Is there an implicit point to your inquisition? Past experience makes me skeptical that you are asking out of pure curiosity...
Note the numbers trend last 12 mth's, and esp last month.
co2now.org
396.18ppm
May 8th
May 1st.
Such as shortwave radio broadcasts. Even though few major broadcasters target the USA anymore, many do target remote areas around the world. With a small battery powered SW radio, you can be pretty well informed even without computer access.
Link and Link and Link
It's what geeks did before computers...and yes...I'm old...perhaps not as old as Grothar...more like a younger sibling. ;-)
It's Raining again. Hard at the moment.
But we did see the sun yesterday.....
Weirdness rules the Weather!
Sounds pretty reasonable to me, although we may see the majority of activity in the Caribbean and Gulf this season. So I don't think we will see too many majors, but we could see something very close 10-15 storms; 5-8 hurricanes ; 1-3 majors. The key as is always is the number that threatens people.
You are a much braver man than I,
I loath spiders. Devils spawn, these guys I heard will run you down.
nope it will be more I am forecasting 13 6 3 for now me next numbers will come out june1
I just think that the season will start quickly and the bulk of the storms and stronger storms will happen before the middle of September... That's when I think el niño will start to increase the shear and prevent storms from forming and growing into monsters
This may have been covered the past few days but the Tuesday AussieMet Enso forecast starting to show some warming in the Pacific. It would appear that we are headed towards an El Nino impacted Atlantic Season (as contemplated by Gray and Company) with lower than usual numbers; however, that does not mean that we should lower our guard because a few majors can certainly threaten someone in the Caribbean or United States during the peak of the Season in that lower sheer window between August and September.
Have a Great Weekend Folks................WW
Tropical Pacific ENSO-neutral, but warming slowly
Issued on Tuesday 8 May | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
Climate indicators across the tropical Pacific Ocean remain neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). During the past fortnight, the tropical Pacific Ocean reached its warmest state since May 2010. All major indicators of ENSO, including cloudiness, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, currently lie well within the ENSO-neutral range.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean may continue to warm over the next six months, with some, but not all, models approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2012. No models currently favour a return to La Niña.
Model outlooks suggest the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will remain neutral during the coming months.
Link
Right now, we are at a neutral ENSO state, and have been for a month or so. El Nino is not likely to formally kick in until the JAS frame, or maybe even ASO. The atmosphere seems to be leading ocean temps this time around, but not significantly so. As such, I think TSR's forecast for the season is closest, with a slightly-above-average year. I agree that the season will be focused more in July and August, but there will still be some activity in Sept and October - just not the same proportion as climatology.
As for where the storms will form and their impacts, as many others have said, we will have more "home grown" storms, with shorter tracks. This by itself puts more of a threat on the Gulf Coast, and FL. Most landfalling hurricanes on the east coast (from SC north) are long-tracking storms.
I'm not going to even try and guess a total storm count, since that has been done plenty on here already.
I think it all depends on what they believe El Nino will or will not have an impact. Right now, I would probably lean to the higher side of 13 6 3.
Glad my grass got mowed yesterday...
Agree 100% with all of your points including the tracks. It all depends if El Nino develops more quickly or not. I lean torwards a slow evolution.
As far as ENSO numbers go, I'd say it's pretty similar. However, we can't compare ENSO numbers and not compare other numbers such as Atlantic SST anomalies. Let's take a look at the comparison between 2006 anomalies and 2012 anomalies:
2006
2012
After comparing those anomalies, there really isn't a whole lot of difference. Therefore, ENSO numbers and SST anomalies across the Atlantic could make 2006 an analog year. There are other factors as well, but those are two of the big ones.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO TX
THROUGH FRI. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BY
INTENSIFYING A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LOW OVER THE NW GULF. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM
GENERATES GALE FORCE WINDS FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING AND THEN TAKES THE MAIN LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE TX COAST
SAT MORNING AND TRACKS IT ALONG THE SOUTHERN LA COAST SUN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF NEVER GENERATES WINDS STRONGER THAN 20
KT AND KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
UKMET LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS...MAXING
OUT AT 25 KT...BUT CARRIES A LOW ALONG THE GENERAL GFS TRACK.
WITH BOTH THE ECMWF ENS MEAN AND THE GEFS KEEPING THE LOW TRACK
ALONG THE COAST...THE ECMWF SOLUTION APPEARS TO NOT HAVE MUCH
SUPPORT. THE UKMET SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AND WILL BE
USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS FRI THROUGH SUN.
lol that is true. Hopefully we get as much rain as they are saying. Those precip maps have been completely off lately. That is if they were ever accurate in the first place
I see quite a few differences between the anomalies (the south Atlantic, the evolution of El Nino, the north Pacific). The PDO seems to be stronger this year, with a large pool of cool water off the Mexican coast. Also, the Indian Ocean is completely different, as is the South Atlantic.
Additionally, bear in mind that 2006 was a Neutral to El Nino year, while this year is a La Nina to El Nino(?) year.
I honestly see more dissimilar features than I see similar features.
They tend to overstate amounts, but they usually are pretty good for a general idea if you *might* get rain (green areas), or are more likely to get some rain (light blue areas), or have a pretty good shot at heavy rain (red and purple areas).
That said, with how the drought was last year, I'm happy to be in the red and purple this time around. Now we we can just spread the love to FL and GA...
I wouldn't call Andrew home-grown, since he was tagged as a TD over in the Cape Verde Islands, and didn't "hit his stride" until closer to home. IMO, whether a storm is tagged as a Cape Verde storm, or home-grown depends on where it is first tagged as a tropical cyclone.
Interesting
I was just talking ENSO regions and Atlantic anomalies. The PDO has more to do with Atlantic hurricane tracks rather than Atlantic activity. The Indian Ocean does have a good bit to do with Atlantic activity, though.
...And it looks like another front will come through by the middle of next week(Tuesday night/Wednesday morning) and if the models are correct, then a tropical system will transition over or just east of Florida. Then head up the US coast-helping to usher in another cold front the following week(perhaps around the 23/24th).
So it appears both camps will be happy thus far. Those that want rain(now, early next week, and perhaps early on the following week)...And those who don't want rainy season to start up just yet(you know, the boring every day run of the mill type pattern of hot and humid conditions with afternoon t-storms and no fronts to relieve us).
UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST OTHER THAN
TO MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY NOON
AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS LESS IMPRESSIVE TODAY AND TEMPS ALOFT HAVE
WARMED A BIT. HOWEVER, WITH DISTINCT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS,
THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS, WITH WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED AS STORM MOVEMENT WILL
AGAIN BE RATHER SLOW. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND LARGELY COME TO AN END BY 01Z.
THURSDAY HOWEVER COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA. MODELS
HAVE NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD H5
SHORTWAVE WITH LOBES OF ENHANCED VORTICITY SWEEPING THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT CAPE VALUES AROUND 2200 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES NEAR -6 C. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE BEST FORCING STILL
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA AROUND THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON. ALL THIS SAID...BELIEVE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED.
I agree. Andrew was tracked as a TD then Storm across the entire Atlantic. Yes, conditions got favorable north of the islands.
I guess I'd like to ask what is the definition (or parameters) of "home grown?"
That does seem shockingly small. The sobering reality: Link
Hit home?
Some folks down there in Peru are fearing another Super El Nino could be brewing beneath the surface as many dead bird and dolphin carcasses have been found along their shores. Similar to 1997 and I think 1981!!!
But a negative PDO might put a lid on it.
Why is it that I suspect TrunkMonkey does not believe that the U.S. government should be funding any scientific studies? Perhaps he feels our scientific studies should be funded by Venezuela or China?
What is your opinion of the blob in the SW GOM? Is it the tail-end of the front or could it become more?
leftovers from tail end of a front if it becomes something it has to become its own enity at the moment anything is possible the season is approaching fast so the possible chances of getting something are becoming better every day now
Eh, I wouldn't call that homegrown, as it is a typical gulf low that quickly transitions to a baroclinic (extratropical) low off the SE coast.
For "homegrown" a good example is Hurricane Alicia of 1983 or Hurricane Gabrielle of 2001.
I suppose the most common example of a "homegrown" tropical storm are ones that form from frontal remnants exiting into the Gulf or the Atlantic which are pretty common late in the season as Fall approaches.
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