U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
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Heat Index 117.0
Rel Humidity 92%
I'm waiting for that first thunderstorm.
I think the admin only removed some posts that were borderline. IMO, unless you get a ban or WUmailed a warning, just let it go. It is never good to try and argue with a blog admin - they have the banhammer, you don't.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
945 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012
TXC127-163-507-101530-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-120510T1530Z/
DIMMIT TX-FRIO TX-ZAVALA TX-
945 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ZAVALA...SOUTHWESTERN FRIO AND NORTHEASTERN DIMMIT
COUNTIES...
AT 941 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAS VEGAS...
OR 8 MILES EAST OF BIG WELLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE DIVOT...DERBY AND DILLEY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 2860 9955 2891 9941 2876 9905 2863 9921
2864 9938 2848 9939 2841 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 235DEG 18KT 2858 9943
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
953 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS...
RIO GRANDE AT DEL RIO AFFECTING VAL VERDE COUNTY
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
DO NOT DRIVE AUTOMOBILES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...18 INCHES
OF WATER OR LESS CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES...INCLUDING TRUCKS.
IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS OR COME UPON A FLOODED ROADWAY...REMEMBER
TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.
FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EWX.
&&
TXC465-110853-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120515T1300Z/
/DLRT2.1.ER.120505T2110Z.120511T0000Z.120515T0100 Z.NO/
953 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE RIO GRANDE AT DEL RIO.
* AT 9AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* BANKFULL STAGE IS 4.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND FALL TO NEAR FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS FLUCTUATION IS DUE TO POWER
GENERATION FROM LAKE AMISTAD.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD CHANGE THE FORECAST LEVELS
ON THE RIO GRANDE.
* IMPACT...AT 4.0 FEET...(1.2 METERS)...THE FLOW IS OVERBANKS INTO LOWEST AREAS
OF THE FLOOD PLAIN...THREATENING TO FLOOD THE ROAD THROUGH THE LOWEST SECTIONS
OF THE VEGA VERDE SUBDIVISION.
$$
&&
BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):
BF FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM (FT)
LOCATION STG STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
DEL RIO 4 4 3.3 THU 09 AM 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4
BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):
BF FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM (M)
LOCATION STG STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
DEL RIO 1 1 1.0 THU 09 AM 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
$$
I'm not just talking about yours being removed I'm just talking about in general....
Yesterday was wet and nasy in N GA.
Even a little chilly.
Today is....perfect
jeffs713 and stormtracker2k
I say this for the up most respect for you two,
I enjoy very much the discussions you provide to the blog. You certainly add to it's credibility. There will always be trolls. ALWAYS. There has never been and never will be a circumstance in which they don't exist or go away. Someone will always be there to trying to get the best of someone. Best thing we can ever do on a blog is just ignore it completely. Don't even acknowledge their existence to anyone, that's all they want....to be quoted, or to be recognized. They could care less if their statements are justified, their arguments shattered by facts, or taunts one upped by us. Just report and ignore. No need to post any kind of information that is associating with their existence.
Workin' on bonus gorgeous day number 2 here. :)
Jeez... Dew point above 80 is insane. and I thought it was bad in Nassau right now.
This should give him a solid 1-2 inches today and tonight and its going to be spread out over decent time period. Just what the Doc ordered for south TX.
A little worrisome too, especially with the negative NAO you mentioned earlier. Might be why the models keep wanting to spin up grief in the NW Caribbean and send it up the coast. We may have a Nicole type of scenario as first storm for the season.
One of the GFS ensembles sent this grief right into the Carolina's.
Yeah he should get a real nice soaking in Austin. Maybe 3"
Oh I know it won't last. And my NWS and the GFS gave us back our rain chances. Lol. It's liable to be a mess.
DISCUSSION...
TRAVELING CARIBBEAN AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST
STATES TONIGHT...UPSLIDING THE RECENTLY-ARRIVED MIDWEST AIR. THE
IN-PHASING OF SLANTWISE LIFT (UPSLIDING) WITH MESO-SYNOPTIC LIFT
(TRAVELING SHORTWAVES) WILL MAKE FOR OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND RAIN.
THE RAIN (WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING...WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAIN (WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE ONGOING ON FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
BY SATURDAY...AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF COAST STATES (A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW FOUND EAST OF DALLAS WITH A
TRIPLE-POINT LOW FOUND NORTHEAST OF GALVESTON (NEAR BEAUMONT).
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHERE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS (FRIDAY NIGHT-TO-SATURDAY NIGHT) WILL RANGE BETWEEN
3 TO 4 INCHES. LOCAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL PERSIST...ON AND OFF...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
It's also the case that during the last twelve months we've been experiencing La Nina conditions. The upwelling of cold deep sea water lowers global air temperature.
Interestingly, this was the hottest La Nina year on record. Take away the cooling effect of the La Nina and global temperatures would have been nice and hot.
Pay attention to the blue squares. Global temperatures continue to rise, but sometimes the rise is masked by ocean currents. The orange squares show how global temperatures are amplified by ocean currents. Average it out and you can see that global temperatures continue to rise.
May 10, 2012 SST Anomaly
May 11, 2009 SST Anomaly
Good morning. The Gulf of Mexico is steaming!
Yes it is...you can also see the difference between 2009 and 2012
Exactly. And before people start talking about we're just in the middle of a "natural" cycle... let me ask this: Where is the extra heat coming from? Solar radiance hasn't changed. The chart doesn't follow an 11-year cycle like the sun. Geothermal processes haven't changed. The heat has to be coming from somewhere... including a greater % of heat being retained by the planet itself.
HEAT ISLANDS!
Don't brag, we could be right back in drought next year at this time
Awe, it's ok, not bragging. Just marveling. :)
Warmer lower atmospheric temperatures and colder stratospheric temperatures prove this beyond any reasonable doubt. I am now wondering if all of the deniers are actually trolls... There is no reason to deny facts except for wanting attention.
as far as I can see yes and its been very consistent with developing and so far just about every run show consistantly shows the same track and timeframe of developing around 18th-19th
That's great to see!
Don't confuse them with facts and logic. They will just claim its a global conspiracy theory by scientists who just want more grant money because that grant money is why these scientists drive normal everyday cars (or use mass transit).
Much better to make them think a bit, and try to apply logic to their biased perspective.
No kidding. My summer vacation plan may still be intact!
Show me a heat island in the middle of the ocean, and I'm the easter bunny.
May 9, 2012
wow nearly the same go go go 2012 SST :)
but the GOM skyrockets wow
Interesting. If you look closely at Hispaniola you can pretty much see the border between Haiti and the Dominican Republic colored by mortality risk. Same thing with Bangladesh and India. Orange/Red next to Yellow/orange or even green/yellow. Quite a sharp demarcation.
Goes to show that the strength/frequency of cyclonic storms is only one part of the equation when it comes to how much damage and death occurs.
On the flip side, Tokyo Metropolitan Area seems to be clearly defined as well in reds and oranges versus the rest of Japan.
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