Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado
Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.
Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.
Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.
Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.
One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.
Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.
Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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East Pacific storms are not that intersting or dangerous. Hardly any hit land. Calm down.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 991.8mb/ 53.0kt
23/0832 UTC 17.3N 139.8E T3.5/3.5 SANVU -- West Pacific
Almost..
Should be upgraded...
You're really saying that storms are only interesting if they hit land? He never once said that this was about to loads of damage, just that it was showing signs of developing quickly, which is true. EPAC storms develop in the same way as Atlantic ones do, so if you truly have a passion for meteorology rather than just watching the hype of an impending landfall then you'd have an interest in them too.
Plus, quotation marks generally mean that it's not even his words/opinion, so don't tell him to calm down.
I'll do what I like.
Hey i said that last night at least someone agrees
Yeah it looks as if the tropical moisture is going to take hold of FL as the "Offical start of the rainy season" appears to be on the way.
Its still really elongated....
Bud is much stronger tha the last advisory
This thing looks to me like the Emperors new clothes.
Don't worry about him. He seems to have a grudge against me or something.
Oh well.
Yup in contrast to yesterdays vort, the Honduras vort seems to be taking over.
Another very wet day on tap here. Strong convection training towards us from the SSW looks capable of dropping 8 inches of rain today. Sure hope that doesn't happen but not looking good on that front.
The low pressure in the NW Caribbean is still very broad and elongated all the way from Honduras to the South coast of Cuba. The 850 and 925 mb vort also match up over this wide swath but the only place even remotely conducive to development would be down near the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Too much shear near 20 N.
Rain will be the big threat today in Cayman along with strong gusty winds
but show it with the 0600 and 0900 one and should show that same trend on the 12Z map
Are you in school still?
GOOD MORNING FOLKS!!!
when do you expect weather conditions to improve in Grand Cayman? I'll be there from 5/24 - 5/31.
IMHO its at 19 N 83 W
000
FXUS62 KMFL 231127 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012/
DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAY MOTHER NATURE BISECTED S FLA WITH RECORD RAINFALL SE AS A
A WILDFIRE BROKE OUT E OF NAPLES. WHAT IS IN STORE THE NEXT 3 DAYS?
THE HEADLINE ABOVE IS THE GENERAL THINKING.
hey kman you se what I am seeing with the vort though
the south side is growing stronger while the norther side is weaker
EP, 02, 2012052312, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1074W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1009, 240, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BUD, M,
Look at the west pac storm!!!
Thats a low pressure for 50
55kts is 65mph so 997mb isn't all that low. 990 is roughly 75mph so if anything it's a bit high.
Satellite blackout over Bud so no new images for a while. :/
Yea, that's a biggie.
These broad lows typically have several small gyres within the overall low pressure envelope. 94 L was designated late yesterday at the position where the pressure was lowest and which also coincided with one of at least two circulations evident from sat. Imagery. In the past we have seen the original position of a low invest abandoned and repositioned when another area within the envelope assumes dominance for the time being and that could happen with this feature.
The deepest convection tends to create the lowest pressure and this gives the impression that the surface low is " jumping from place to place".
For these reasons you should not focus on any one position as the so called center has a tendency to dance around where pressure is broad and strong convection is spread out.
Look at the big picture.
See my post 883. This is not unusual with broad disorganized low pressures especially in a high shear environment where the so called center tends to follow the area of strongest convection
oh umm today I think we will have a break through mid day today after that back to stormy weather this is what I say but the offical forecast from the locat met office say conditions will improve today and drecreasing chance of showers but I really don't really trust it
yes NHC has it wrong but I still say it is not at 19N
more like 18N or 17N
So the Emperor has many sets of New Clothes spread around the room?
Look at the room and not the position of the Emperor in the room?
LOL
that is so true
so I am expecting the 94L to reposition it self to the south near honduras just a side note(if it continues to stick around for about 24-48 more hours in the area that it is now developing that south low it will be in really good conditions in terms of shear
Guess us in Central and north Florida will have to wait till June 1st. But on the bright side, the GFS southwestwards into Jacksonville by Tuesday. But it's an outlier though(and it's not paying attention to the ULL that'll be just SE of the Carolina's by that time frame which will be spun-up by the remnants of Alberto)...And the ridge axis that will set up from Cancun/the eastern Gulf up to the Ohio Valley will completely breakdown by Monday-enabling the Atlantic ridge to send it towards the Carolina's.
Viewing: 851 - 895
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