Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado
Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.
Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.
Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.
Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.
One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.
Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.
Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.
Jeff Masters
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...S THROUGH PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221710Z - 221915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS S THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
FL. IN ADDITION...PW VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCH AND HIGHER FREEZING
LEVELS RESULTING IN WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 1.5-2 INCH PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY WITH SUSTAINED
ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION...AT 1645Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS S FL...PRIMARILY INVOF TWO
E-W ZONES OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND THE INTERSECTIONS OF THESE
BOUNDARIES WITH SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED ONE OF THE E-W BOUNDARIES WAS
LOCATED S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FROM SRN PALM BEACH COUNTY THROUGH
CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY...WHILE THE SECOND ONE WAS OVER FAR S FL.
DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PER THE 12Z MIA SOUNDING...SURFACE
HEATING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THESE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
VERTICAL PARCEL ACCELERATIONS WILL TEND TO BE WEAKER AND THUS LIMIT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH/DURATION.
MIA WSR-88D VWP DATA SHOWED WEAK VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL...BUT STRONGER SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ATOP SELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AID IN SOME ORGANIZATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..PETERS/WEISS.. 05/22/2012
It's an Alberto type set up meaning it forms right near the center of an upper low. Look below.
Ha! I hear ya Gro, we know the saying, "misery loves company" all too well!
Just a sec, wanna relay something weird I encountered yesterday... typing skills dependent, lol...
Link
LOL! It seems as if we get it in FL then it goes to LA next. Atleast it has been like that with recent storms to affect the US.
You ask him where he got his figures from, and yet the website you are using has even higher forecasted values. Weather Underground's Best Forecast is calling for 100 on Sunday and 102 on Monday at Evansville Regional Airport.
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/h dfForecast?query=kevv
I don't know about the other cities. This will probably be a little warmer than reality but it's possible. Best Forecast seemed to be the only algorithm that grasped the magnitude of the March warmth 5 to 7 days in advance, though it seems to have a little bit of a warm bias in the long range.
Seems more likely.
There is also an area of low shear just off the NE coast by the border between Honduras and Nicaragua. If it gets to that area it might stand a chance.
#208 - ST2K,
Certainly the nastier storms have! I'll be watching cautiously the steering patterns with any disturbances over the Bahamas as always! LOL, of course - from all directions given my location... ;)
***
A totally unrelated / off-topic offering here, but I saw an unusual weather-related phenomena I caught yesterday aftn purely by chance, perfect timing, serendipity thingy...
Near 2 PM, sunny / PC skies, light ELY winds, almost hot but comfortably dry / low humidity, stable weather locally by SE LA standards for late May, was driving N on road paralleling Bayou Terrebonne when suddenly saw a highly unusual sight appear in the middle of the bayou -- a column of water was being spewed, sprayed straight up reaching nearly 10 feet out of seemingly nowhere!!! Had the appearance that someone was under the sfc with a garden hose aimed skyward... Took my shocked brain a sec or two to grasp what it was, as saw it was also radiating 8-10" waves, fish were jumping airborne away from it... and the whole incident lasted only about 5-6 seconds -- clearly was a dust-devil type feature turned micro-waterspout! LOL... As said, had perfect timing to catch it, and more I thought about it after, perfect physical conditions to allow formation - the bayou is only about 60 ft across there, there's a relatively tall bank on west side lined with concrete rip-rap (and a building), a bridge immediately above / adjacent on north side, east bank is cleared, sloping downwards, had rising aftn heat and light E winds...
Okay, no big deal, agreed... But it was a "WOW, Look at That" moment nonetheless that brought a smile. I've seen plenty dust-devils, etc, but never one sitting stationary over water spewing it skywards!
;)
Alright work duties a'calling...
Might hafta do some more "water-devil-spout" storm chasing on the way!
Later!
My suspicion is that if the system can stay in the Caribbean long enough (until this time frame) then conditions will become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation. GFS is showing winds less than 20 knots throughout the NW Caribbean at this time frame.
Looks like poor vacation planning to me. I would have started off in Louisiana, flown over Florida and spent the rest of my vacation in the Bahamas. ;-)
This is thru next Tuesday. 12Z GFS Precip accum.
LOL! Well you know it's that time of year. By the way the Euro & Nogaps is onboard as well for something cutting across FL then back across the state to LA or FL Panhandle.
I wonder where I hear something of the sort and saying that in 36hours time shear will die down huh tell me who said that
There is no question in my mind that this is strong tropical disturbance, will it become a TD/TS , I don't know, but here on Grand Cayman it caused just as much damage as if it was a TS.
There is no doubt that conditions are getting more favorable for development
But I think the GFS has gone stircrazy:
either that of it just likes trouble.
This means that tempest in a teapot in the western Caribbean can grow, as the shear is shifted to the north. How far north it can get, is another argument.
Looking upstream, however, we can already see a system in the northwestern Pacific. That wouldn't have been possible unless the pattern is changing, and will for us, downstream.
My hurricane forecast this year begins in Asia.
It might just be a bug in the upgrade...
Don't worry, it looks like the wet season pattern will finally be taking shape more so each day this week into next week. The rain we had last week was due to energy from a stalled front, however the wetter pattern that will steadily be taking over our area appears right now to be a more classic wet season pattern, increasing moisture and instability...
Being in a drought there is a tendency for there to be an anxiety if the drought will end. But don't worry, I really think we will eventually replace drought with frequently wet. La Nina which has been mostly dominate for a few years now is dying out and El Nino will replace it. Furthermore, because we are in a drought we might want all the rain to come now, but so far for May we are on track for what is typical of Central Florida in May, and you can see how we are transitioning nicely towards the wet season as we should in Late May. In fact we have seen the most "normal" weather so far in May that I have seen in a long time compared to much of the way off balance weather that seems to have plagued the area for many months.
It didn't help.
Oh well, i guess we will just have to see.
The MRF and the ECMWF show the beginning of a diving trough, but after 90s this week, i really dont think we are going to get that.
Then it shows it crossing and moving into NOLA... Sounds like the blog's idea of DOOM to me!
What does all of this mean in terms of the weather forecast in Grand Cayman from 5/24-5/31, my vacation dates? I sure hope that it won't be a total washout.
They took the Low off the loop again, but you can clearly see the low moving a little south of due east in this loop.
That's because the potential is there. With rising pressures across the Eastern United States caused by the formation and intensification of a ridge of high pressure, an upper level disturbance could easily get "stuck" off the Southeast USA coastline and transition into a warm-core low pressure area very similar to how TS Alberto developed.
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