Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting kwgirl:
"Besides for a few abnormally dry areas, Debby pretty much got rid Florida's drought" 779 Ameister 12

I always wondered how they counted drought. We are looking at a map of how dry is an area? Because there is a huge rain event, which saturates the ground, does that really mean an end of drought? If the one event is just that and the heat continues and not enough subsequent rain or what people refer to "normal rainfall" does not begin, aren't we still in a drought? Even if the ground, at the present, is saturated? I know some of you out there are knowledgable about this.

I totally agree, KWG .... Debby's rains were a boon to my garden here in the Cape, but so far this year I've not seen anything that looks like what used to pass for "normal rainy season" in SW Florida. And we're standing on July's doorstep now, with a huge blob of hot, dry air spreading across us. To me it's worrisome.

As someone rightly pointed out a bit ago, nothing about this Atlantic Hurricane season has followed traditional climatology so far. Maybe the real answer is, traditional climatology isn't working in some other places as well?

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


It will be closest to Dean's track and will be a wave its whole life

N-S steering is very weak, and the monsoon belt will be in its way. It will phase in and dissipate

Strong wording. I wouldn't be so confident. We were all confident that Chris would just be a weakling little storm, but it became a hurricane. The tropics can become unpredictable very quick.

I really don't see what you guys are talking about SAL is little to none in the CATL AOI and on water vapour shows a good size moisture field around the AOI
upper level winds should not be a problem at all as there is a upper level anticyclone right on top

Anyone got the SAL map?

Talk about the SAL is useless without the map.

Quoting ncstorm:


A yellow circle by NC..

yes it seems debby just wont quit

Do not expect the heat to become predominate weather feature .Mid to late july and august mid 90s as a climate shift to el'nino has begun .of course i am talking about the east of the great devide .Cal that has enjoyed cool weather in the past couple years ,you will bake under the relentless sun and wild fires will be dominate in that region .Colorado will see relief in the eastern half ,but continue to be dry in the west .The ridge in the west will stregthen and become more pronunced into places like southwest canada ,causing low pressure to go over the top and trough over the eastern half of the country.
ample amounts of gulf moisture will invade the eastern half of the country later on ,mid august into sept .Winter months will become more enteresting in the eastern half of the country with cold fronts stacking along the coast line and ample cold air ,though dry cold air available. once every 10 to 15 days a strong enough cold frount out of the artic will clear it all out and when it does the forecast will then become enteresting to say the least .
you all no the drill, wild fires in the west as usual as Santa Ana winds return .Expect flood waters to rise int he upper Ms valley also ,
there could be variation is the el'nino type weather but generally this is consensus in based on my observation of the last 20 years .
this is opinion only and to be taken with grain of salt.
P.S GFS will do 70% over the next 8 months forecast with slight indecision in the transition month,Oct!
i am out of here untill next tropical system becomes evident ,or possible .
Dew

SAL map
as I said little to no SAL on out AOI

Quoting Grothar:
Debby still looks nice and Round

Agreed, she looks quite gravid. Maybe she will still leave a baby Debby behind. In any case she still looks warm core today, the NHC just wanted to punt in the battle with Debby.

Whats scary about the CV wave is that none of the models are currently developing it..if it does, what does that say about future forecasting of the wave train later in the season..

Debby should have the orange cone on her by evening, a red eighty percent cone by this time tomorrow if she's not already tropical again and a tropical depression. She's looking good and should be a classical looking tropical storm with an actual west side. (something she never developed prior) I'm thinking 50/60 mph by Saturday afternoon is not out of the question. NHC has had more headaches with Debby than any storm in recent memory. Debby's still not done giving them a hard time. She may get to minimum hurricane status before she's done, giving us something to discuss before the next round of activity starts. How fast will vertical instability come back in the Gulf?

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1142 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...
THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...
THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...
THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...
THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...
THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD...
THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...

...MANY AREA RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIVER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
TO NORMAL..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC081-290441-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-120629T0700Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.120625T0236Z.120626T0100Z.120629T0100 Z.NO/
1142 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
* AT 11AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.9 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...PRIVATE ROAD AND BRIDGE 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FLOOD.
AGRICULTURAL, RURAL KIBLER AREA BEGINS TO FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.2 FEET ON SEP 10
2004.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN MON TUE

MANATEE
MYAKKA HEAD 11 11.9 THU 11 AM 9.7 7.9 6.8 6.4 6.1

$$

Quoting ncstorm:
Whats scary about the CV wave is that none of the models are currently developing it..if it does, what does that say about future forecasting of the wave train later in the season..

It doesnt look that impressive i dont understand the hype

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I really don't see what you guys are talking about SAL is little to none in the CATL AOI and on water vapour shows a good size moisture field around the AOI
upper level winds should not be a problem at all as there is a upper level anticyclone right on top

i liked chris's chances.
But a met needs to be objective, note hopeful.
I would like to see a D storm, but objectively, without the MJO, some dry air that might finally catch up to this thing, a wave that is not rotating much anymore, that will run into the monsoonbelt, and that will be near a TUTT and will be over land before anything gets better, i am struggling to find something good to say.

chris was here at mid latitudes, some models developed it to near hurricane strength, and it was a subtropical swirl that only needed to transition

water along the beaches is still kinda dangerous...................CLEARWATER BEACH --
A day after a swimmer died after being pulled from the gulf at St. Pete Beach, three people needed rescuing at Clearwater Beach after getting caught in a rip current.

The water rescue happened near the 500 block of Mandalay Avenue at 10:52 a.m.

Lifeguards helped the victims from the water.

Clearwater Fire & Rescue responders performed CPR on an unresponsive 50-year-old woman and were able to get a pulse back. She was transported to Morton Plant Hospital with potentially life-threatening injuries.

Two family members, a man and woman, were also assisted to shore. They refused medical treatment.

Officials at area beaches are warning beachgoers to be aware of rip currents brought on by Debby.

They say that although the surf appears to be somewhat calm, there are still dangerous currents below the surface.

Yellow flags are posted at the beach today, advising swimmers to use caution

Won't the remnants of Debby be renamed Ernesto? Because it merged with the frontal system and is no longer purely the same system.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i liked chris's chances.
But a met needs to be objective, note hopeful.
I would like to see a D storm, but objectively, without the MJO, some dry air that might finally catch up to this thing, a wave that is not rotating much anymore, that will run into the monsoonbelt, and that will be near a TUTT and will be over land before anything gets better, i am struggling to find something good to say.

chris was here at mid latitudes, some models developed it to near hurricane strength, and it was a subtropical swirl that only needed to transition

Over 22C water.

.....................GFS precip at 60 hours,rainmaker off the texas coast?

Quoting Tribucanes:
...How fast will vertical instability come back in the Gulf?

i think that is the problem...a nasty upper high and no PVA...difficult conditions are upstream of the trough.

Quoting lightning75:


Thank you!! Thats some interesting solutions

God, Gustav was a scary storm, I remember seeing the waves crashing over the indusrail Canal, and thinking, Oh Crap, not again, luckily, the winds shifted right after that.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
SAL map
as I said little to no SAL on out AOI

It has handled the SAL exceptionally well for June, however, it has enough dry air and dust to kill it quickly

Quoting FutureWx6221:
Yesterday

Today


Just echoing the sentiment of many other bloggers this morning...the wave to watch is the one over Ghana/Togo/Benin. Just as dry air is working against our current AOI, the AOI is also pounding away at the dry air. The two other waves that precede our Ghana wave will help to create a moist environment for what looks to be our first impressive CV invest. Our CATL yellow circle has lost some of its curvature since yesterday and also much of its convection. I could see the wave holding together just enough to enter the Caribbean, but I don't see anything big coming out of it.

Sorry, I'm new here, why didn't my images show up in the original post (798)?

Quoting 12george1:
Won't the remnants of Debby be renamed Ernesto? Because it merged with the frontal system and is no longer purely the same system.

Same basin so no

I could be wrong. As the NHC would say

lOw confidence forecast

12george1 brings up a very interesting point. NHC wanted Debby to die so bad at one point there was no circle and they had issued their last report on Debby. So, NHC responded like Debby no longer existed, but she was technically always still post tropical and an existing system. So since Debby never died they'll be using her name for when she goes tropical again. NHC hasn't had a great grip on Debby even after she departed Florida. NHC has had a really good last five years though, very impressive. We can forgive them this swing and a miss with Debby.

Quoting weatherh98:


Same basin I think so no

I could be wrong. As the NHC would say

lOw confidence forecast

If Debby comes back...it will still be Debby...even though it merged with the front earlier. Similar thing happened with Dean in 1997....

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i liked chris's chances.
But a met needs to be objective, note hopeful.
I would like to see a D storm, but objectively, without the MJO, some dry air that might finally catch up to this thing, a wave that is not rotating much anymore, that will run into the monsoonbelt, and that will be near a TUTT and will be over land before anything gets better, i am struggling to find something good to say.

chris was here at mid latitudes, some models developed it to near hurricane strength, and it was a subtropical swirl that only needed to transition

ok let me help you out

#1 you don't need the MJO to have a tropical cyclone it has happen already multiple time almost every year this happens

#2 dry air ain't getting in to it a matter of fact the moisture is growing with the AOI pushing away the dry air and

#3 there is a upper level anticyclon on top of the AOI only causing 5-10kt shear not only that but the TUTT that is in the E carib is expected to move N as the anticyclone with the AOI moves in

I know that it is rotating although not as strong but with the good conditions that should change very very soon

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

If Debby comes back...it will still be Debby...even though it merged with the front earlier. Similar thing happened with Dean in 1997....

Yea that's what I thought, it only changes when it "basin hops"

Thanks guygee, appreciate it.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok let me help you out

#1 you don't need the MJO to have a tropical cyclone it has happen already multiple time almost every year this happens

#2 dry air ain't getting in to it a matter of fact the moisture is growing with the AOI pushing away the dry air and

#3 there is a upper level anticyclon on top of the AOI only causing 5-10kt shear not only that but the TUTT that is in the E carib is expected to move N as the anticyclone with the AOI moves in

I know that it is rotating although not as strong but with the good conditions that should change very very soon

It's like June 28

It is almost always necessary to have the MJO in place for an early season storm to form.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

If Debby comes back...it will still be Debby...even though it merged with the front earlier. Similar thing happened with Dean in 1997....

dean???

Quoting lightning75:


Thank you!! Thats some interesting solutions

why point out the bad storms??

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Over 22C water.

that was the surprising part but it was partially warm cored when it was forming so i didnt doubt it could be tropical

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok let me help you out

#1 you don't need the MJO to have a tropical cyclone it has happen already multiple time almost every year this happens

#2 dry air ain't getting in to it a matter of fact the moisture is growing with the AOI pushing away the dry air and

#3 there is a upper level anticyclon on top of the AOI only causing 5-10kt shear not only that but the TUTT that is in the E carib is expected to move N as the anticyclone with the AOI moves in

I know that it is rotating although not as strong but with the good conditions that should change very very soon

the wave will not moisten its whole path, it cannot reach all the way back to the e atl for moisture when it nears the antilles.
However, it will produce rains and thunderstorms.
Development, no

Quoting 12george1:
Won't the remnants of Debby be renamed Ernesto? Because it merged with the frontal system and is no longer purely the same system.

well did debby lost its circulation the answer is NO so it WILL NOT be renamed to Ernesto but it will Debby

Quoting lightning75:


So you really think if the 10% develops the Cayman Islands is in danger of being hit from what I understand the Bermuda high could build right into the Gulf shortly?

well if the high builds in it will likely take a Dean 07 track

Quoting weatherh98:


It has handled the SAL exceptionally well for June, however, it has enough dry air and dust to kill it quickly

actually it does not
not enough dust and not enough dry air
it does have a big enough moisture field and it is still growing

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


the wave will not moisten its whole path, it cannot reach all the way back to the e atl for moisture when it nears the antilles.
However, it will produce rains and thunderstorms.
Development, no

I'd give it a 35% chance of development over its ENTIRE life time

Quoting lightning75:


I didnt .... I just asked an opinion and gotthe opinion and was thanking him for giving his opinion

oh sorry i was trying to quote the person who put dean gustav and charley up and i was like why the bad storms? lol

Ok, I know not many people are on, but I will still do this:

POLL TIME!!!!

What will the C Atl AOI do?

A) Dissipate soon
B) Produce rain and thunderstorms through the antilles and then dissipate
C) Become a strong wave/TD with heavy rains and flooding before hitting land
D) Become a solid TD
E) TS
F) Hurricane
G) I dont know why i am doing this after all the above choices but OTHER

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Ok, I know not many people are on, but I will still do this:

POLL TIME!!!!

What will the C Atl AOI do?

A) Dissipate soon
B) Produce rain and thunderstorms through the antilles and then dissipate
C) Become a strong wave/TD with heavy rains and flooding before hitting land
D) Become a solid TD
E) TS
F) Hurricane
G) I dont know why i am doing this after all the above choices but OTHER

A

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well did debby lost its circulation the answer is NO so it WILL NOT be renamed to Ernesto but it will Debby


well if the high builds in it will likely take a Dean 07 track



actually it does not
not enough dust and not enough dry air
it does have a big enough moisture field and it is still growing

wunderkidcayman, you are not gonna make this develop like you made beryl develop, are you?

Everytime you say a storm will develop, it does

Quoting windshear1993:
A

smart move my man, im actually going with B though.
But A could very well be right

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well did debby lost its circulation the answer is NO so it WILL NOT be renamed to Ernesto but it will Debby


well if the high builds in it will likely take a Dean 07 track



actually it does not
not enough dust and not enough dry air
it does have a big enough moisture field and it is still growing

Yes lol if that started to A) chip away at the moisture field or B) entrain dust and dry air that wave is cupoot.

Hum haw

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


smart move my man, im actually going with B though.
But A could very well be right

yea b is reasonable lol we might see ernesto till friday july 13th

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Ok, I know not many people are on, but I will still do this:

POLL TIME!!!!

What will the C Atl AOI do?

A) Dissipate soon
B) Produce rain and thunderstorms through the antilles and then dissipate
C) Become a strong wave/TD with heavy rains and flooding before hitting land
D) Become a solid TD
E) TS
F) Hurricane
G) I dont know why i am doing this after all the above choices but OTHER

B

Its pretty clear "ex" Debby Has a circulation:

Link

Caution: big (36 mb) beautiful vis loop