Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:29 PM GMT on July 12, 2012 | +43 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 13
Location: 14.2°N 109.6°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 14.2N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 14.8N 110.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.4N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 15.8N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.0N 115.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 17.1N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 19.3N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 22.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
...EMILIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
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2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 13
Location: 15.4°N 124.8°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 15.4N 124.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 15.6N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.8N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.0N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.2N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 16.3N 140.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z 16.3N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z 16.3N 150.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
DSIPT
Yes,it looks like it doesn't last long.
3.7 / 990.9mb/ 59.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.0 2.8
Center Temp : +3.6C Cloud Region Temp : -27.1C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in DK GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 998.7mb/ 51.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.6 3.6
Center Temp : -55.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
ITCZ. LOW AND WAVE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 48W-53W.
something.to.watch
I would really love to understand what time wave zero is about.
AXNT20 KNHC 131055
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N32W TO
8N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS PRECEDING THE AREA DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N48W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
ITCZ. LOW AND WAVE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 48W-53W.
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND
SURFACE TROUGHS...THUS DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 15N17W TO 14N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 7N32W ALONG 6N43W CONTINUING S OF THE LOW/TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 7N49W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 11N16W
ALONG 11N23W 7N33W TO 8N44W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH DIPS S ACROSS E TEXAS AND THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN STILL GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND IN THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM TERREBONNE
BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 27N92W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA COVERING THE FAR NE GULF. A WEAK
MESOSCALE LOW HAS MOVED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND IS NOW 1014 MB
CENTERED AT 13/0900 UTC NEAR 29N85W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA THROUGH THE LOW TO
26N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N88W AND SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 13/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 26N87W INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W CONTINUING TO THE NW
CORNER OF GUATEMALA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120/150 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 20N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N TO
THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-84W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N-25N W OF 95W...AND
WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF TUXPAN AND W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE NW
THROUGH SUN AS A SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SLIDES S TO THE FAR
NE GULF BY MON. THE MESOSCALE LOW AND TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO CUBA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND WITHIN 90/120 NM
ALONG THE S COAST FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO W CUBA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HAITI BETWEEN
71W-74W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA
BORDER THEN IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA S OF 13N W OF 80W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA E OF 80W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 71W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
BREEZE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO E CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE MON.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA COVERS THE FAR NW
ATLC N OF 28N W OF 75W. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N65W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N57W TO 20N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 25N52W ALONG 26N60W
TO 30N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N
BETWEEN 70W-78W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W
ALONG 35N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURGE OF DENSE
SAHARAN DUST OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 16N-32N E OF 33W
AND FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 32W-50W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SUN THEN SLIDE S TO NEAR 31N MON AS A HIGH CENTER WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 28N63W. THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO
WILL MOVE W AND REACH FROM 30N65W TO 23N69W TONIGHT FROM 30N70W
TO 23N72W SAT NIGHT FROM 30N71W TO 23N74W BY SUN NIGHT THEN
BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR NW ATLC MON.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
PAW
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
520 AM EDT Fri Jul 13 2012
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Friday]...
There are some generally minor to moderate discrepancies between the the 00 UTC GFS and ECMWF runs through much of the extended period, with the GFS favoring Upper Level Ridging over the SE U.S.
and a Sfc Ridge over the Northern Gulf, while the Euro has weaker Upper Ridging displaced off to our NW, with a weakness in the Pattern Aloft which gradually slides down to our CWA from the NE
over time. The ECMWF also favors somewhat weaker Sfc Ridging over the Gulf, with a slightly stronger Bermuda High (which will have to first displace an active TUTT Low to verify). While both solutions favor onshore low level flow(which is generally favorable for fairly high Sea Breeze induced PoPs this time of year), we leaned more towards the GFS solution in which the Upper Ridging would suppress PoPs a bit below Climo and Sea Breeze Climo levels, and also allow for above normal Temps with Highs in the Mid 90s away from the Coast.
&&
Water vapor loops are infrared images specifically at the wave lengths of infrared light emitted by water vapor. If water vapor is present at the higher levels of the troposphere the brighter the image. If high/cold clouds are present there will be lots of cold water vapor associated with the clouds, so high clouds show up well, too. If air is sinking in the upper atmosphere, it will warm adiabatically including the water vapor in it, so areas of subsidence will appear darker. When swirls show up well on water vapor images, they are at high levels of the atmosphere. The brighter pixels stand out in contrast with nearby sinking air.
Sometimes tropical upper level lows can develop into surface lows but not often. Tropical systems require vorticity at lower levels and rising air. An upper level low will often have an area of diffluence to its east which can promote convection and increase the strength of a passing easterly wave or other feature in the lower atmosphere.
Upper level lows can contain relatively strong winds which can cause shear for nearby low level tropical systems. They also can transport dry air in the mid to upper levels into a tropical system.
When a wave approaches an upper level low, it can become a sort of race. Will the upper level low provide ventilation and move westward fast enough to not shear the tropical system and inject dry air? Stay tuned for the 2012 hurricane season to find out.
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE RIDGING BUILDING
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND THIS RIDGE WILL BE
STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPS ALONG
WITH HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
IMPRESSIVE 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE OVER AFRICA AND INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS OF NEAR 600
DECAMETERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
WESTWARD WITH TIME NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASINGLY HOT AIRMASS
LOCALLY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW 850 MB TEMPS UP TO 20C BY MID WEEK...SOME
+2.5C ABOVE AVG. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE MEX/MCX GUIDANCE BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM AS OPPOSED TO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AS THE HOTTER
GFS NUMBERS LOOK MORE APPROPRIATE...AND IT COULD END UP HOTTER.
HEAT INDICES LIKELY WILL BE IN THE 100-105 RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FL.
ALSO...A FORMIDABLE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) COULD MOVE IN SOMETIME
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING
HAZY SKIES TO THE AREA AND A LESSER COVERAGE OF TSTORMS, THOUGH
THEY COULD BE STRONGER GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY. WE HAVE DAYS
TO SEE HOW STRONG THIS RIDGE WILL BE AND IF A SAL MOVES IN...BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS SUCH.
wow, Little shop pf horros anyone?
It would be more appropriate if the GM'd fava beans with the liver genes... "I ate his liver with some fava beans and a nice chianti."
Link
I was on the USCG Sagebrush (WLB 399 since retired and sank ) when it was hit by a bolt. WOW
Euro has something in this area as well then loses it.
The bottom 3 connected kinked lines represent 3days of Daniels's path as a hurricane.
Note how Emilia has pret much fallen into the trough carved by Daniel's passage.
* As of the 13July6amGMT ATCF, Emilia became a TropicalStorm again on the final dot of the 4th day.
EP, 06, 2012071312, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1102W, 55, 995, TS
TS Emilia:
EP, 05, 2012071312, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1254W, 55, 994, TS
It drops that system shortly after though... Doesn't look like conditions will support further development.
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING IN THE EASTERLY FLOW
AND MODEL SPREAD IS CONSIDERABLE WITH NOT ONLY THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT ALSO WHETHER OR NOT IT HAS ANY SURFACE REFLECTION. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED WITH ITS PROGRESSION AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM...IF IT AFFECTS US AT ALL.
Northwest Atlantic Water Vapor Loop
Link
Interesting! But according to many on here "Seasons a Bust". LOL!
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