Tropical Storm Gamma next week?
The tropics remain quiet today. Strong westerly winds blowing across the Caribbean are creating up to 80 knots of shear, making tropical storm development very unlikely for the next two or three days. However, all of the models are forecasting that these strong winds will relax and shear values will drop dramatically across the central Caribbean by Tuesday. The persistent area of low pressure and storminess that has affected the ocean areas between Panama and Nicaragua the past three weeks will expand. The GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models all indicate that a tropical storm may form in the south central Caribbean by the middle of next week.
Figure 1. GFS model forecast seven days from now, showing a tropical storm with copious rainfall (bright green colors) forming in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
It is highly uncertain what land areas might be at risk if such a development does occur. The three main possibilities would be:
1) A track like Hurricane Beta into Nicaragua.
2) A track like Hurricane Michelle in 2001, which struck southern Cuba then passed northeastwards through the Bahamas.
3) A track like "Wrong-Way Lenny" of 1999, the only hurricane ever recorded that took an extended west-to-east path through the Caribbean.
Anything that works its way far enough north is going to get picked up and quickly recurved northeastward by one of the many troughs of low pressure migrating across North America. This means that except for a low threat to South Florida, the U.S. would not be at risk. Additionally, given that there has only ever been one storm knicknamed "Wrong-Way", the eastern Caribbean would probably not be at risk, either. I'll be able to spend my vacation in Puerto Rico next week at the beach, instead of taking shelter at the Internet Cafe and writing blog entries. The primary area at risk would be Nicaragua, Honduras, Cuba, Hispanolia, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands.
I'll be back with an update tomorrow morning. Remember that the computer models are rather poor at forecasting tropical storm development, and nothing at all may develop next week. But given that this is the Hurricane Season of 2005, I'd give at least 50/50 odds we'll see a Tropical Storm Gamma by late next week in the central Caribbean.
Jeff Masters
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I'm hoping that we can make it through the end of this record-breaking hurricane season with no more storms. I'm praying that the tropics remain quiet, and this forming storm doesn't strengthen. The surface temperature seems to be cooling a bit, but still warm enough to give a boost to anything forming in the south. I have friends in Southern Florida that are DONE with hurricanes this year, so I'll keep my fingers crossed.
try this link:
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&modelrun=0&map=SURPRE&time=24&model=GFS&domain=CA
-StormMan
Tis time to MOVE on mother nature. We've had enough!
Death to all Tropical Blobs.
See you guys later :-)
better check your local news... the price you'll pay is an FPL increase of 19.8% for fuel plus an additional Wilma hike, plus that 11% "fine" we insurance customers will be forced to pay for the greed of the insurance compaines who shelled out nice dividends to investors rather than saving for a rainy day...
so when the Wilma hike hits, it'll be the fourth one in about a year...
just an aside...i worked construction back in '73 laying underground pvc pipes for the utilities for Coral Springs...my foreman told us that FPL was going to bury cables every year until they were all underground...think how different things would be now if they had done so...
gotta go try to force home depot to take back the generator that was supposed to be 5500W but stalled if it had to power more than a 60W light bulb! they say they won't take it back because i put oil and gas in it...maybe psychic helane could have told me it wouldn't work properly, but i had to crank it up to know...
and this is paradise?
Bills i feel for ya'll. I have friends & family with citizens, they were pretty slow last year. You need to keep in close contact with the insurance company, immediatly report unnoticed damage. People, look at your attics, you could be missing insulation or it's easily tossed around. Duct work is easily damaged but ya got to look close at it. Ours needed resealed at the joints. Parts had collaped inside, take off your vents use mirrors and look. Then recaulk the edges of the vent holes before you put them back on. Recaulk your whole house. The wind gets in your attic, especially if you lost soffit, pushes at every crack & widens it. ~ Back to the insurance WRITE EVERYTHING DOWN. The best of luck to ya'll.
back off mama, we said go to sleep!
You better, or your gonna take a time out! (Called winter)
My mother lives here now and went through Ivan, but she says the worst hurricane she ever went through was Fredrick back in the 70's. She lived in Mobile,AL when Fredrick hit and she says that Ivan wasn't near as bad.
(Please excuse my poor typing and grammar today... I was looking over my last few blogs and ughhh! LOL)
Gamma = Cape Verdes cat 5 which hits the Virgin Islands.
Delta = Caribbean Wilma/Gibert-breaking which hits Cuba.
Epsilon = Major hurricane off the coast of Maine
^^^^ The above is a joke ^^^^
Period.
Just checking in, mostly lurking when I get a chance, but I must comment on Dr Master's post!
PLEASE NO Hurricane Gamma!!Hope the models are kidding.
Our Ins. co.told us we will not be a priority and we are ok with that; people with structure damage really need help first. Our deductable is so very high that unless you have a lot more damage than the deductable your are better off not filing a claim at all around here.
We have the "FEMA Blue Tarps" all over our neighborhood for those that did not replaced their roofs recently.
We did find a company replacing fences and we got on his list. Hope to get him the weekend of 11/20th. Very tired of sitting in my patio (that use to be screened in") and being able to read my neighbor behind me's cereal box as they eat breakfast! Plus see the lights from 2 streets over because there are no fences anywhere! For safety we must get something up soon because of our open pool and our dog!
Good to see everyone is taking things in stride and with a sense of humor, for the most part! LOL.. Let's all do a chant in unison "NO MORE STORMS IN FLORIDA THIS YEAR!"
Gamma
Better re-think Rockwall, TX, I lived there once upon a time and we had a waterspout/tornado rip things up quite a bit, I remember 25' boats flying in the air...we lived just up the hill from Lake Ray Hubbard. Tornados occur there with some frequency.
You might consider San Antonio which has tornados occasionally but not too bad.
-StormMan
i met some people while in the hotel wiht wilma and mentioned that we were thinking of texas and she was from rockwall she says shes never had a tornadoe. are there any links that state exact location ect of tornadoes so i can see the best areas?
I don't know. They're annoying. Just mark it as spam and hope that some moderator ever gets around to deleting them. :-)
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