Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Panama disturbance weaker

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:05 PM GMT on November 12, 2005

The rains have diminished over Panama today as the area of disturbed weather in the south-central Caribbean has weakened. The intensity and areal coverage of the disurbance has decreased since yesterday, although there are still some intense thunderstorms moving ashore along the Nicaraguan coast. Wind shear has increased from 15 to 20 knots since yesterday and contributed to the weakening.

Some slow development of this disturbance is still possible over the coming week, as wind shear values are expected to fall starting Monday. The UKMET and NOGAPS models are still showing a tropical storm forming between Nicaragua and Jamaica by Thursday, but the GFS model is no longer predicting this. The earliest a tropical depression would be likely to form is Tuesday. Friday or later is a more likely bet.

Figure 1. GFS model forecast five days from now, showing a tropical disturbance with copious rainfall (bright green and yellow colors) near Nicaragua. However, the GFS is no longer showing a closed isobar of surface pressure around the rain area, indicating that this is not forecast to be a tropical storm. Click here to see the full GFS forecast for rainfall and surface pressure for the coming 14 days in the Caribbean.

The rains should ease off in Panama and Costa Rica today, which have seen some impressive rainfall amounts the past three days. Some rainfall totals for the 72 hours ending at 7 pm Friday night:

Limon, Costa Rica: 210 mm (8.29 inches)
Jaque, Panama: 166 mm (6.54 inches)
El Porvenir, Panama: 151 mm (5.94 inches)

I'll be back with an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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101. atmosweather 5:22 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
nite snowboy Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

102. dcw 5:22 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
The latter one is the system in the west Caribbean, which will certainly be cancelled due to the spin-down over the past few hours.

103. atmosweather 5:23 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
doubt it progressive it isnt that strong yet but its well on the way to becoming td27 by tomorrow or monday Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

104. cgableshurrycanegal 5:23 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
I understand that dcw, but I also understand that diurnal blow-up and die-down happens cyclically as well and that if they have to scramble an ops they will and they will mention it in their public announcement regardless of whatever timetables they normally run. This is indeed impressive, and needs to be watched, I just wouldn't bet the farm on it just yet. Give it another 12 hours to be sure it'll really hold together as an ORGANIZED system. Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211

105. Skyepony (Mod) 5:24 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Those cordinates are for Panama blog not this one. Well, they know how to think on their feet. They've changed the plan before. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29236

106. ProgressivePulse 5:24 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
I thought beta was #27?? Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4322

107. cgableshurrycanegal 5:24 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
skye, beat you to it... nyah-nyah!!! Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211

108. 8888888889gg 5:25 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
some one give me a link on some satellite on what eve you can give me

109. cgableshurrycanegal 5:26 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
at this point I have NO idea what # TD we are up to. Never thought I would see a year I couldn't keep straight... Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211

110. Skyepony (Mod) 5:26 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Well, I'll give it 12 hours, check it in the mornin & try to beat ya to sleep ~ Nite all~ Hey gables thanks for spreadin the word. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29236

111. cgableshurrycanegal 5:27 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
skye, thanks for giving me the word to spread!!! Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211

112. cgableshurrycanegal 5:29 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
nighters, skye, yeah, 12 hours to see what it does, which is what I think NHC is doing. They've already advised the islands to hang onto their hats, and now everyone watches... Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211

113. atmosweather 5:29 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
this will be td 27 Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

114. cgableshurrycanegal 5:30 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
thx atmos 8888 have no links, I'm still on dial-up and take too long, so... Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211

115. 8888888889gg 5:33 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
cgableshurrycanegal that ok can you tell me what it look like

116. atmosweather 5:33 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
888 NASA or FLOATER Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

117. dcw 5:34 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
It's 27. Kinda funny that the october summary from the NHC uses 'STD 22' :P

118. squeak 5:35 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Well, ho, I go have myself a nice evening and come home and what has cooked up in six hours? Well that was fast. Lordy looks like we have something to watch until (if) SW Carib gets going later next week.

119. 8888888889gg 5:36 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
thank you atmosweather

120. atmosweather 5:37 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
LOL dcw youre welcome 888 Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

121. dcw 5:41 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
I always have to giggle a bit at the NHC's discussion at 11PM the night of mega-Wilma. 'The initial intensity is set at 95 kts. This may be conservative'. Gee..you think?

122. 8888888889gg 5:41 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
any one on DSL it is so slow how come?

123. atmosweather 5:43 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
lol dcw and their great dennis discussion sentence "AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL RATE THIS EVENING." Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

124. cgableshurrycanegal 5:48 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
found this also on NHC in latest tropical discussion: TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2005 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 1008 MB LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N ACCORDING THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 51W-59W AND SHOULD MAKE TOMORROW QUITE WET FOR THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE LATEST GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BUT WLY UPPER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 211

125. 8888888889gg 5:55 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico... An area of low pressure along a tropical wave is centered about 100 miles east-southeast of Barbados. This system has been producing a concentrated area of thunderstorm activity near the developing circulation center during the past few hours. Upper-level winds appear marginally conducive for additional development... and it is possible that this system could become a tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

126. atmosweather 5:57 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
next discussion out soon and this one will include the intense blow up of convection near the center earlier Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

127. atmosweather 6:08 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
im gonna get some sleep, nite guys Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

128. dcw 6:10 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Nothing really new in discussion. Goin to bed now.

129. squeak 6:10 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
atmos...and how many times this season was that rate surpassed, to peak with record-setting Wilma. There have been a lot of colorful moments in the discussions this year (most recently, how the models "brilliantly" predicted Beta...not).

130. squeak 6:32 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Well darned if there isn't sleet crackling against my windowpane. We're fixing to get a big drop in temp between now and Sunday morning, and a little taste of winter I think.

131. squeak 6:44 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Hey now is this funny...I just went and checked, and pressure right now in my suburb south of the Twin Cities is 990mb, no kidding. I went and checked to the NE after looking at the radar, and a NE suburb, and nearby loc in WI, both have a pressure reading of 987mb.

132. AySz88 6:49 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Wow, the "danger area" is so rediculously tiny... Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

133. 8888888889gg 3:29 PM GMT on November 13, 2005
DR.M as a new blog up

134. BonnieBay 1:34 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Thanks to our Hurricane expert Bloggers we knew what was going on.......................many thanks to both of you!

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