Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

If it gets past 70W before 30N I am concerned that the strenght forecasts are way to modest. The water below 30N, 70W is far warmer than the water to the N of Irenes current position. Image-Link

If this system does make the W or SW jog or change in direction. What will turn it back N. Won't it be to strong by then to re-curve NW?????

well if the high strenghtens and it turns W/SW, it then cannot turn back N/NW. Stormtop did mention Irene getting closer to the high and starting to go west

if u look here

Link

last frame or 2 u see a more west direction..but could be just flare up?

Stormtop, I can still see how FL at least northern FL need to keep an eye on this storm, its been tracking now due west for 2-3 hours now, and growing. I think this high is much stronger then the models have been predicting, right now it appears that Irene is tracking left outside of NHC forecast track at 5am. It will be interesting to see the upcoming advisory at 11am

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF IRENE.
T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE REACHED 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A
MORE ACCURATE MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF IRENE
WILL BE KNOWN WHEN AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHES THE CYCLONE LATER
TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST FLIGHT INTO IRENE. THE SHEAR AHEAD OF
IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE LOW..AND THAT SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER A POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL WATERS LEFT BY FRANKLIN AND HARVEY. SO
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS
AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD...IRENE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS AND IN
FACT...IRENE COULD BEGIN MEANDERING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MANY
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW BASICALLY VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW
NEAR THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST POSITION OF IRENE. EVENTUALLY...A
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH SHOULD TURN
THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE US COAST. THAT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE
FUTURE TO BE CERTAIN.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 28.3N 66.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 29.2N 68.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.0N 69.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 70.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 71.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 72.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 36.5N 71.5W 75 KT


$$
NNNN

Well damn, its going to pull a Jeanne and stall out. . .

"AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD...IRENE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS"

this is just the opposite of what Stormtop has been saying...

i dont see it moving nw anymore, at least the nhc confirmed the fact of some additional strengthing, but I dont think the nhc has a grasp of tracking this storm

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL962005_lrg.gif

Watch out, could we be looking at a new storm in the future?

NOTE:

12 UTC models have NOT ONE hitting the coast. Yes they have it stalling out, but just as the NHC says, it moves out to sea.

Even the GF models have shifted.

Ok I have now lost allllll confidence in the NHC. The storm is moving WNW if not W. This is so wierd. No track change??? ARE THEY BLIND??

53rd im in the same boat with you, they must have all went to lunch early, or basing their facts before 9am, since about 9 this thing has been cooking much more west, with maybe a slight movement north

Hello guys.....we'll ive been looking for a precise forecast from our outspoken "STORMTOP".....forgive me if Ive missed it, but I havent seen a precise forcast from him.......has anyone seen one.....I would like to know...if he hasnt, then It wont be considered....anyone can wait till the last moment......

he said he will have one at 11am

Im still hoping it curves back to FL and hits us... (*devil*)

the NHC track is way off

Link
click on "trop fcst point" its already moving west of that.. BAM!

this reminds me of the GFS model run, I think yesterday, where it had her moving up to 30 deg, then curving back SW...

*waiting for Stormtop's update*

Use the WU zoom satelite it is more up to date then the floater and can zoom in closer it is definately in the short term for now moving west or west southwest and slowing down

I think the gfs is right there except for the disapate part lol.

Maybe it is just me but to my eyes the storm over the past few hours has not been moving north-west. It in fact looks to be moving west to wnw and all of the convection is on the south-west side of the storm and not on the north-east side of the storm which caused its north-west movement. Maybe it is just expanding or in fact moving west but if this continues then it is heading toward warmer waters. what do you people think?

Link

thats the track

Is it true that we have to wait for the NOAA from MacDill to get out there to get a true output on the High Pressure. Jedkins or Stormtop?

I see it taking a weakness in the ridge which is off the coast of central florida, hope it is just temporary lord knows we dont need anymore FL based suprises

Irene sensed that there is cold water up ahead.. so she turned west ha

NHC confirms a new depression may be trying to form east of the Windwards...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

YEP.. Jose is coming after his girl Irene... :D

This may sound kind of stupid but i have seen some weird things out of storms. Hurricane ivan last year was orriginally supposed to split the state of florida in half making landfall in marathon and just going right through the state but at jamaica after heading wnw and appearing to go nw all of a sudden goes due west for a day avoiding the mountains and then went around cuba across the smallest and flattest part of the island. All storms make unforecasted moves and this one already has a bad track record with the nhc and no models are seeing what is happenning right now so i do not know what forecast to trust until the hurricane hunter goes out there today and finds out the truth. Maybe the high is stronger than it should be or maybe the storm is stronger than they are saying it is. the nhc will not declare the west motion until it sustains itself for 6 hours at least.

Almost there 68W 28N--Link

I bet it will make it to 70W without being at 30N. It has gotten rather un-rganized which would cause it to go West right now.

Visible images show that the center is directly on the NHC forecast points. They still have it right. New convection starting to develop around this center.

Well you are wrong. The next forecast point is to far to the N of the the center and it has it as a CAT 1. wrong and wrong. The weaker it is at this point the further west it will go. and right now it is not ready to become a CAT1 or go that steeply north. This could change if she strenghtens significantly right now. But she is having a real tough time. She hit a wall of a High Pressure and bounced off making her weaken as she changed directions.

where the hell is Stormtop.... I gotta see what he says

and yes punk..u r wrong. NHC is too far north, she just turned left like recon said

think that Florida might be in it again for this one if Stormtop is Right.

What recon observation are you getting? can you give me a link?

look at

Link

and zoom in. you'll see she never touches the 30 mark

The ciculation, you have to agree, is where the new burst of convection is located, right?

I'm still going with the concept that the weaker she is - the further west she'll go - the stronger she is - the further north she'll go. This is the pattern she's been following for a few days now. At this moment, she has lost most of her significant convection - and appears to have drifted west.

well.. b4 I thought was the eye was really just a patch of no clouds. this could be the same. have to wait to c where she moves next.

punk - I would agree with you that the forecast points remain pretty accurate. The attempted burst at new convection is near the forecast points. The previous convection, which has now died off - is what caused the illusion of a westward drift.

There is no "eye", just a center of circulation, and it is just north of the new convection. The new convection, to me, looks like it is on the south edge of the center of circulation. This center of circulation would have been right on top of the old tropical storm point that it has now passed. The storm is getting its act together again and it will be strengthening very soon.

I wouldnt be surprised if this storm LOOKS like it has an eye over the next few IR frames. However, that will fill in shortly. It may be slightly weaker than they would have expected because of the reduction in high cloud tops over the last hour or so. . but its on the rebound. It may delay the hurricane status by one advisory, but even than, the next advisory isnt untill 5pm, and thats a long time away. 4 hours of development can lead to a lot of strengthening. However, once it goes another 1-2 degrees north, this storm hits cool water temps. We might even see it fall apart once again for a few hours.

im surprised as close as she is, no watches are up yet....

punk, I'm with you... the center is still very near the NHC forecast points and still moving wnw to nw. The westward movement some are seeing is likely due to the upper low to the southwest pulling the western outflow even farther west, which makes it appear the storm's center of mass has shifted westward. If you watch the visible loop (Link) you can clearly see a surface high is centered just off the right side of the view. The surface flow on the west side of this high pressure center, where Irene is now, clearly has a southerly component which should keep the storm moving wnw to nw for a little while longer at least. It looks like Irene just shot northwestward into the weakness too fast and even as the Bermuda high tries to build back westward toward the US coast Irene will have already gone too far north to get pushed back to the coast.

The local meteorologist is saying she may stall and come closer to the coast.

hey..look at the last frames just now.. it really looks like there is an "eye" now

Link

so you are saying that this stormm could not pull a Jeanne?

Storm or Jenkins if you are on would like your input......

who is "you"?

punk this storm is just getting to feel the high pressure system which is stronger then the hurricane center says..i figure its a little over 600mb high to the north of irene and combined with the middle level low to the south of irene in the islands irene will begin to slow which she already has started to do...once she comes to a stall the nhc will again have to revise the track position the computers are now saying..to show you how screwd up the computers are they are all saying that irene is going out to sea which if you believe that i will sell you the superdome i own...thats why i have little faith in computers...i will repeat this one more time FLORIDA IS NOT OUT THE WOODS...IT HAS A LONG WAY TO GO YET..THIS IS A SCENARIO SETTING UP LIKE JEANNE..THIS STORM IS GOING TO GET STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE TEMPS ARE RUNNING 88 DEGREES WHERE IT IS NOW WITH LITTLE SHEAR AND NOTHING TO STOP IT FORM BECOMING A CAT 3 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...IT WILL BE DELAYED BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF A STALL FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS..SO FLORIDA DONT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN THE WEAKNESS HAS FILLED AND IRENE CANT GO OUT TO SEA I REPEAT THIS AGAIN CANT GO OUT TO SEA THE HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST TO STRONG TO TURN NORTH INTO IT...RECON WILL BE DOWN THERE TO CONFIRM THE CENTER POSITION AND REMEMBER GUYS THIS IS THE FIRST RECON FLIGHT INTO IRENE SINCE IT GOT STARTED...THEY WILL CONFIRM A MORE WEST COURSE....ILL BE BACK LATER.....

Everyone should try the following satellite link. It has a high quality zoom and the images today are being updated every 5 to 10 minutes... once you turn up the speed you can really get a good idea of the core's organization and the exact center of circulation.

Link

whats up Stormtop..glad to c u.

yeah the models r all screwed up, they ALL say the storm will go out to sea.. LOL

Im really anxious to see what the high will do!!!!!