Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Observed at: New Orleans, Louisiana
Elevation: 3 ft / 1 m
[Mostly Cloudy]
92 °F / 33 °C
Mostly Cloudy

The NHC says nothing is going to develop on there TWO.

grr lol can someone tell me where the link is for the carribean blob please

The only thing I am looking at is there was an increase in convection noted on the inferred since the sun has gone down over there showing that it is tropical.

lol WPB. They will say something don't worry. 40 min to go.

Hi all I have updated my blog! How many think that NHC will upgrade it to a depression or atleast an Invest?

Link

Here is the link

Wind shear rising in the W. Caribbean. I don't see any development in the near future.

I havnt been here in a while. I know the southern atlantic has seen activity. But has the southeastern atlantic ever saw eny tropical activity in history?

chessrascal-I think there is a very low chance for the Caribbean disturbance to become an invest at this point. As for the wave off Africa I give it a 5% chance for invest.

The Carribean is really active what is that blob off of southern central America?

There first needs to be a low pressure for it to be classified as an invest.

i give that blob in the SW Carrib a 15% chaance of develop. It looks very good on the IR image. Possible organized group of thunderstorm. I don't see the shear affecting it at this point. other wise there would be more outflow on the east side of the system.

I won't be able to tell if it has a spin. not on my computer :(.Java doesn't work.

WPB i think u are being to pesimistic or however u spell it. lol

convection is lookin decent

WPB where did you find that graphic?

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 7.8 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.84 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.7 °F

I will start talking about development when I see this page say possible development. Link

yes Storyofthecane lets see if there is a spin at the lower levels.

WPB where did you find that graphic?
Link

Also, EPAC has a yellow Link

There area in the Caribbean also has to watch out for that ULL.

WPB sometimes you have to think outside of the box. Looks very organized to me and the pressure continues to fall.

If it is still around tomorrow at this time there might be a chance for it to develop. Wind shear isn't that big of a problem and SST are warm enough.

i think it will still be around lets wait and see. TWC tropical update in 20 min.

props to WPB for being more conservative than many here. Enjoy reading everything, but guys like WPB balance things out...as there tends to be a higher number of people here rooting/hoping for everything to develop.

Afternoon all ☺

Interesting radar out of Wilmington. Strange echo, huge bow?

Has anyone seen the 12z 144hr CMC? It is a long way out, but that is the first I have seen of that. Also looks as if it would head to sea. Will be watching to see if CMC persists.

As for the SW Carib blob, there is a chance it will develop, but it will only be for a moment if it does. Looks as if it will run out of water in the next day or two.

Out at the beach with the family this week and weekend, so I hope to pop in when I can, but am going to mostly be enjoying my vacation☺ Will be keeping an eye on those wacky Canadians and their model.

Models and much more.

Already more activity than 2006.

6% chance in the EPac. No invest?

That SW Caribbean Blob north of Panama is sure looking impressive, I think there might me a low level spin though I'm not sure, looks like its making a more northward movement. I think this has to persist for at least another 12-24 hours before the NHC becomes interested in it, Pressures here in Grand Cayman are falling also according to the various reporting stations.

saying SWFL that we are not necessarily huyping for development. We are currently analyzing the current Sea- Surface Temperatures as well as the upper level winds. Also we are taking into consideration the current organization of the system as well as if there may be a low somewhere in or around the system. I say marginal development as of now only because i cannot verify that there is a low level spin. However if there was we would be talking about a Tropical Depression forming.

On this day in 1966 Hurricane Alma made landfall.

i hate the weather channel they dont go into any detail they dont say nothing

TWC,,candy for the masses.

The SW Caribbean blob has held its convection quite well throughout the daytime hrs. Although there has been some warming of the cloud tops there has not been the typical significant daytime decline that one would expect to see. Once the cooler conditions set in tonight we should see much colder cloud tops and more intense convection

was not saying anything about specific posters, or even talking about this current situation. Just saying that the conversation here, in general, tends to center around all the things a blob has going for it in terms of development - as opposed to what is working against it both in the short and long term.

Not attacking anyone...just saying it is good to see a little balance - which is what makes the conversation valuable. Often times, it is one-sided IMO.

Did you really expect the TWC to give analysis on a blob near Africa?

Stormpetrol

Wassup ?

well TWC or the NHC doesn't same to be mentioning the blob in the SW Caribbean, now I know for certain you have to watch it. :-)(just kidding) At the end of the day they both day do a good job once something has formed.

Climatology favors that area but WPB has great points, I rather wait and see what the models and quikskat show overnight

Hopefully the system moves closer to the buoy South of the Cayman Islands

i aint talking about an african blob i know that isnt going to form...its way too early i was laughing earlier when people were saying it would form.... i was talking about the more interesting flare up in the sw carbbiean twc didnt even mention it

Well I am watching it ( a bit lol )
These June blow ups take 24 to 36 hrs to do anything if they do get going. If it is still there tomorrow morning then it has a chance.
For now, it is just a typical SW Caribbean blow up. Hey thunder starting outside !

Must be from that W Cuba ULL causing a build up over us

Hey Kman having a cold one on a Saturday afternoon, enjoying some music and browsing, just heard some thunder, wonder what that means. It sure has calmed down( the Sea) on the south side of South Sound today, was choppy ever since Barry formed Northwest of us.

i guess i gave TWC too much credit oh well. That Blob was right near that ladys belly and nothing mentioned. I guess she didn't have Steve Lyons write a script for her oh well. Lets see if the the system will gain some more convection overngiht.
SWFL we can't be talking about long term conditions when the system hasn't even developed yet. As of now we are talking about the short term which at this point is the main focus. That upper level low if a few hundred miles north of the "Blob". The shear charts showing moderate trend of marginal to favorable upper level winds. And the SST remain warm enough to support tropcal cyclone development.