Grading NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook
The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) is a text-only product that rates the potential of disturbed areas of weather to turn into tropical depressions or tropical storms. The outlooks are issued four times daily, at 5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm EDT. I've found them to be an excellent guide to what to watch out for. But how accurate are these outlooks? To find out, Jamie Rhome and Dan Brown, who are two of the hurricane specialists that write the Tropical Weather Outlook, verified the accuracy of all the outlooks issued in 2005 and 2006. They used a three-tiered classification of threat based on the following language appearing in the TWO:
High: "A tropical depression could form tonight or the next day."
Medium: "Some slow development is possible."
Low: "Tropical storm formation is not expected."
These forecasts were then graded by looking at the "best track" database of Atlantic hurricanes and seeing if a tropical depression formed within 48 hours of each TWO issued. The results, shown below, reveal that for the Atlantic in the years 2005 and 2006:
-When the TWO said, "A tropical depression could form tonight of the next day," a depression formed within 48 hours 53% of the time.
-When the TWO said, "Some slow development is possible," a tropical depression formed within 48 hours about 20% of the time.
-When the TWO said, "Tropical storm formation is not expected," a tropical depression formed within 48 hours only 3% of the time.
Figure 1. Verification of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlooks issued in 2005 and 2006. Image credit: Jamie Rhome and Dan Brown, National Hurricane Center.
Jeff Masters
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Somwtimes you just gotta take out the trash for the sake of a better cause
LOL I just care about more rain right now, but of course I'm definitey watching it though.
so that low by Bahamas is blowing up??? haven't looked lately.
out here in Weston, all the canals and lakes and berms are full of water. Everything here is very green again and water is everywhere.
Hope some of this is getting over Lake Okeechobee and falling in the Everglades.
Launch Date: June 8
Launch Time: 7:38 p.m. ED
Image above: At Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility, Mission STS-117 Commander Rick Sturckow and Pilot Lee Archambault are ready to begin practice flights in the shuttle training aircraft. In flight, the aircraft duplicates the unpowered orbiter's descent for landing on a runway. Photo credit: NASA/KSC
06.07.07 - 10:30 a.m. EDT
At this morning's Countdown Status Briefing, NASA Test Director Steve Payne reported that after many months of hard work Atlantis is ready to launch. External tank inspections are in process and there are no issues being tracked.
Upon completion of all checks and inspections the access platforms will be retracted. The xenon lights will be lit, brightly illuminating the space shuttle, which can be seen from miles away.
"We're ready to fly tomorrow," said Payne.
Roy Worthy, external tank and solid rocket booster vehicle manager, described the multitude of repairs performed on the external tank and thanked the hundreds of workers who labored days on end to complete the task.
STS-117 Payload Manager, Robbie Ashley, reported that the payload was loaded into the orbiter's payload bay this week and everything is ready and secured for launch.
Kathy Winters, shuttle weather officer said there is now only a 20-percent chance that weather would affect the launch. A high pressure ridge has entered the area and although the typical Florida afternoon storms may develop, they should be west of Kennedy Space Center and not an issue at launch time.
The forecast for tomorrow morning is for light winds and a zero percent chance of weather prohibiting the loading of propellants into the external tank.
Commander Rick Sturckow and Pilot Lee Archambault have been practicing landings in the Shuttle Training Aircraft and the entire crew is making final preparations for tomorrow's liftoff.
Transfer of the hydrogen and oxygen reactants were completed this morning. These reactants will be used by Atlantis to generate power during the mission. The umbilical unit was secured once the loading was accomplished.
The launch pad's rotating service structure is scheduled to roll away from Atlantis at 10:30 p.m. tonight. When in place, the giant revolving enclosure is used to install payloads into the orbiter's cargo bay and provide protection from inclement weather.
On Friday, launch day, propellant loading is set to begin at about 9:30 a.m., with the pumping of more than 500,000 gallons of liquid oxygen and hydrogen into the vehicle's orange external tank.
NASA TV coverage of the launch and live launch countdown coverage from NASA's Launch Blog begins will begin at 1:30 p.m. EDT Friday.
GET BACK TO WORK YOU SLACKERS!!...
Sorry, continue please...
No work today. Portuguese holiday and off tomorrow also. Next Wednesday is another holiday. There is NO lack of European holidays, believe me. Anyway, it is 9 p.m. here and I would be home anyway. So I assume you are addressing all of our OTHER friends here.LOL.
Other than that west coast has lacked rain more then the east coast, hopefully with the wind shift combined with this possiblw low forming we can get a lot more rain on this side of state.
I saw a report that said the Muscat airport got 2 inches. Doesn´t sound like much but considering that is half of their annual rainfall there is no wonder they had flooding.
MP~ We all don't need to work..
It was a joke Jedkins! Any freak can see what is happening there. Try and find a sense of humor please?
Oh I have sense of humor, you have no idea haha, its just I have actually seen people put stuff up that rediculous and not be joking lol
JED, I know how you feel about the rain! I had alittle rain when barry came through. It was the first rain at my home in months. Now, I hear thunder in the distance yet it is sunny and hot here! All of the rain is east of me, here in Hernando county. It seems to miss me often! We can only hope for some of the wet stuff!!:)
wow over 1000 lightning strikes around the area in ony the past 15 mintues, thats a classic Florida summer pattern, lookin good after all today.
Not classic SW FL pattern, all moving east of 75
another wave off the coast
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