Bill Proenza gone; tropical update
With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."
The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.
Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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thought you might like that one hehehe
It's been real, ya'll.
MLC <------------------out for some shut-eye!
Link
I'll go to bed now.
Thanks groundman. I'll try and keep all the waves and areas of interest in the Atlantic updated along with some of the more profound storms around the globe but there really isn't anything worth noting at the time.
Link
Short term...
middle and upper level moisture was beginning to stream into the forecast area
at this time ahead of a rather potent vorticity centered about 100 nm S of San
Diego. The 00z WRF has initialized this feature quite well this
evening and shows it lifting north-northwestward across l.A. County late tonight and
early Tuesday. Moisture is fairly limited...especially below 6000
feet...but good vorticity advection should provide the lift necessary to
allow for some thunderstorm development overnight. Since the low levels are so
dry...heavy rain does not appear to be a major threat with any
storms overnight/Tuesday morning...and fairly strong southeasterly flow aloft
should make for rather fast moving storms. The real threat for any
storm overnight/Tuesday morning is from dry lightning. Any lightning
strike will be a major concern since fuel moistures levels are
extremely low...especially for early July. The Fire Weather Watch
for overnight/Tuesday morning for all but coastal sections for dry lightning
certainly looks warranted...and will not make any major changes the
Fire Weather Watch. (See laxrfwlox for additional details). In
addition to the dry lightning...some locally gusty winds are
possible near any thunderstorm due to acceleration of the air as it
cools by evaporation into the deep layer of dry air below.
Otherwise...the marine layer may become disrupted somewhat
overnight by the middle and high level moisture across the area...so expect low
clouds to be more patchy in nature across the area. For Tuesday afternoon
and evening...a fairly strong vorticity lobe rotates across the forecast area.
Models are showing quite an increase in moisture through the atmosphere
across the area Tuesday afternoon. This may cause an increase in thunderstorm
activity across the area Tuesday afternoon...but could decrease the threat
of dry lightning as storms become more efficient precipitation producer.
However...do not feel that the threat of dry lightning will be
eradicated...so it is possible that Fire Weather Watch may have to
be extended into the evening. Will let later shifts make that judgment
based upon vertical moisture profiles.
Posted By: BahaHurican at 8:51 PM EDT on June 16, 2007.
Evening all,
It's nice to see we are having fun here.
As one in the hot seat (or is that WET seat?) I can say this passing "surface low" has added anywhere from 2 to 6 inches of rainfall to our totals for the month. It's been overcast all day, but the rain really started coming down around 5 p.m. local time. I was driving down the north coast road about an hour later, and I ended up getting off the road altogether because the downpour was so heavy. (The wind was quite low though.) I ended stranded there for about an hour. . . .
I did try to get a few pictures of the weather, but I can't do anything with them until I get some power here. I can't imagine trying to upload that stuff on dialup!
I never did get a chance to post the photos, so here are a couple of them.
Picture one is in the parking lot where I pulled off the road.
Pictures 2 and 3 are of the same basic location, a place called "Go-slow Bend" on West Bay street. I posted a picture from clear weather in January so you can compare it with the same place on June 16.
Picture 2
Before the Rain
Picture 3
During the Deluge
It is so big it is still having problems completely getting over and surrounding the center.
JTWC Forecast Track:
Then compare that with this IR loop:
Link
Looks to me that Luzon and Taiwan should start making preparations for a possible landfall on their shores...
The low is there and it may develop pretty quickly once it hits the EPac.
Do the ratings on TWC really get downed because of that commercial? XD
HEAD ON apply directly to the forehead
HEAD ON apply directly to the forehead
HEAD ON
i find IBUPROFEN works for me
I can't get away form it! it's everywhere.
the waves are readyLink
Link
Link
What are you doing up so early man?
The weather over me was blown away by shear last night. But whats your take on the next one, at about 45 W ??
Looks more formidable than the one before ?
By MELISSA M. SCALLAN
mmscallan@sunherald.com
GULFPORT --Emergency managers in South Mississippi said Monday they don't like the turmoil at the National Hurricane Center, but their main concern is getting accurate information about storms.
Bill Proenza, who took over as director in January, was fired Monday, McClatchy Newspapers reported. Since he became director, Proenza has been outspoken about his belief that the federal government is not spending enough money at the NHC to replace aging equipment, particularly satellites.
Last week, about half of his staff signed a letter saying they think Proenza's actions have undermined public trust in the NHC.
Butch Loper, emergency manager in Jackson County, said he agrees with Proenza's views, but he thinks the information coming out of the NHC will be accurate.
"The American government needs to put as much money as they can into hurricane research," he said. "(Interim Director) Ed Rappaport has been there 18 years, so I don't have any problems with the information."
Loper said Proenza and former Director Max Mayfield were accustomed to speaking with local emergency managers and being in the public eye, so he's concerned that Rappaport and the other senior forecasters don't have that experience.
Rupert Lacy, deputy director of the Harrison County Emergency Management Agency, said he'd like to see Proenza back in the director's position, but he agrees with Loper that the most important thing is accurate information.
"I think he's genuine and he's concerned about forecasting," Lacy said of Proenza. "(But) as long as the product coming out of the National Hurricane Center is the best they can do for the residents in a vulnerable coastal area, then I'm OK with it."
Loper and Lacy said they aren't concerned about the lack of a permanent director during hurricane season. Both said Rappaport and the senior forecasters have years of experience.
Brian Adam, emergency manager in Hancock County, agreed.
"Anytime you don't have leadership it's going to hurt some," he said. "But they have enough senior forecasters to get along. The senior forecasters know what they're doing, and if they say they can do it, then I have to believe them."
http://forums.fark.com/cgi/fark/comments.pl?IDLink=2920756
/meteorologist
//ex-NWS Central Region
Please excuse the reverse slashie placement but everyone should be aware why I am getting a kick out of these replies. And certainly the article.
Proenza was known at NWS to be one of the biggest a-holes in the history of management, but he was promoted to Regional Director in a fit of affirmative action. He is technically Hispanic. He has dared the upper management at different times to fire him. They responded by hiring a couple of other Regional Directors from the diversity mold, and he probably should have seen the writing on the wall.
The offices are laughing their fool heads off as we speak. He was the Rosie O'Donnell of the NWS.
The NHC is, let's say, underworked for part of the year, and tend to be quite, how you say, "forthcoming" with little (or not so little) problems. It was a perfect assignment to get rid of someone with no people skills.
So AMEN. Piss off, Bill, and don't let the door hit you on the way out.
/frickin' A
Spot on. When that power-hungry administrator (not forecaster) was Southern Region Director, he pissed on every real meteorologist he could find. He was on the NWS Board of Directors, and since his massive failed effort to rid the nation of the SPC and leave severe weather watches and outlooks up to local talent, among other things, the Board wanted him out. As a GS 16(or 17?) they had to put him in a Director's position, and the NHC Director does not sit on the board. So they rid themselves of one problem and created a much larger one. They knew damn well how much of a prick he was, so it still baffles me as to why they would shuffle him into the most public role in the whole of the NWS. (and after Katrina, the public exposure of the NHC director has only increased)
//The world would be a much better place without managers.
Proenza is a tool. Always has been and always will be. He farked up the Southern region, so NWS management decided to put him in the highest profile job in the NWS? Dumb move.
Even his secretary wanted him gone.
There is no surface reflection near 55W, it under 5-10kts of shear but surrounded by 50kt shear, unlike 96L it is in a moist environment, something to defintely watch but right now I would not expect development.
sportguy...can you please link me to a shear map?
That post was a little demeaning with the language and if a NWS employee made those comments they should be ashamed.
That for me is the problem in a nutshell. Bill was trying to point out that money could be better spent else where rather than a party. Whether that money go for quickstat or some other technology. The best they can do could have been so much more with money spent in the correct areas. I feel that the forecasters' mutiny has done them even more harm than what they felt bill had been doing to them. jmho
Problem is...the eastern/central Caribbean is shear city. Unless a high can develop over the disturbance..and knock the shear out as it goes west...it'll get ripped apart.
"Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on July 10, 2007
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
Forecaster Rhome"..............
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