Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Bill Proenza gone; tropical update
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:35 PM GMT on July 09, 2007 +2
With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."

The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.

Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Politics
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601. Altestic87 12:36 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Wrong, boring = bad ALWAYS
602. Ivansurvivr 12:37 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
P'cola Doug-were you there for Ivan?
603. MrNiceville 12:39 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Not you again...

Boring = GOOD...

I don't have to put up my shutters. I don't have to worry about power. My internet connection works without fail.

Busy = BAD...

My house is dark when I don't run the generator. I ration my water to last until the pump stations come back on-line. My beer has to stay cool on ice, rather than in a fridge...
604. Stormsabrewin 12:40 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
I wouldn't wish Ivan on anyone.

StormW, Ivan wouldn't wish Ivan on anyone. That one was a flat-out wrecking machine.
605. cajunkid 12:40 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Morning guys and gals

cut-n-past this

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1240
606. Altestic87 12:40 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
No. Boring = BAD. Busy = GOOD, so I can watch the action from my dugout place in the forest in Dallas...
607. IKE 12:41 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
It didn't work...cajunkid.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
608. IKE 12:42 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Posted By: Altestic87 at 7:40 AM CDT on July 10, 2007.
No. Boring = BAD. Busy = GOOD, so I can watch the action from my dugout place in the forest in Dallas...


Easier to take when you're not affected. You wish harm on others?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
609. Altestic87 12:43 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
No, but I love to watch a big mass of turning clouds with a hole in the middle in the ocean...
610. weathermanwannabe 12:43 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Good Morning all.........Looks like all is pretty quiet in the tropics and nothing in sight for the next several days...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
611. cajunkid 12:45 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Oh well go here Link

type in X=617 Y=362

click tha animate tab and extract sub-image
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1240
612. MrNiceville 12:45 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Ike;

I figure there's no reasoning with someone like Altestic. Until she experiences the likes of Opal or Ivan (I sat through both), she'll always be a carnage-lover...
613. IKE 12:46 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Posted By: Altestic87 at 7:43 AM CDT on July 10, 2007.
No, but I love to watch a big mass of turning clouds with a hole in the middle in the ocean...


Then there's Man-yi.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
614. MisterPerfect 12:46 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
I can watch the action from my dugout place in the forest in Dallas...

Ok, I'll be sure to get some popcorn and champagne the next time an F5 twister takes a stroll through big D...
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 69 Comments: 19470
615. MrNiceville 12:47 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Cajun

Unless the shear drops, it will be another shredded system in a few days...
616. Ivansurvivr 12:48 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
I lived right off Scenic hwy. About a 10 minute walk to the DQ that overlooks p'cola bay where I-10 sank. I stayed and rode it out. I will NEVER forget it as long as I live. If it weren't for xanax, I probably would have had a heart attack.
617. IKE 12:50 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
It is scary as hell.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
618. Tazmanian 12:50 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
dr m they this had there first major typhoon they had 2 of them so far a cat 3 and a cat 4
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111615
619. cajunkid 12:53 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
I was just showing a good picture, you guys argue over what will happen to it.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1240
620. whirlwind 12:53 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
WOW...lookie here. Them beautiful waves coming off Africa. Tis the season. There coming off more north than before.

Common guys, its July, what do you expect a Dennis?? or Emily.

Relax, August is the firing season. Those waves will be shot off Africa from its 'dimble'. Just wait....Im anxious myself
621. strangesights 12:54 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Shear relief continues ... :-)
622. whirlwind 12:56 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Yeah shear is high... but look at the forecast... nothing but good ol blues and greens in da future..Link
623. MrNiceville 1:02 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
So you rode it out on the bluff (or right behind it) - wow...

At least here in Niceville, we have flat ground...
624. ridesthestorms 1:03 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
I was a stupid one and stayed for Rita. I will never do that again!
Member Since: July 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
626. whirlwind 1:07 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Hurricane season is kinda like fireworks. Tease the crowd with some minimal action in the beginning, but dont show em what you got right away. Then as time goes on, more and more!!! Then as the finally, BOOM!! Let everything loose!! One after another and another...go go go...!!! ahhh..... need some more coffee
627. Ivansurvivr 1:07 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Ivan was at night. that was the worst. At least during the day, you can see what's happening. I can still hear that wind scream. Still gives me the creeps. The storm's not as bad as the aftermath. I can still hear that eerie silence. not a sound anywhere the day after. Although I don't wish that kind of devastation on anyone, I've always liked watching storms. I doubt I'll ever see one that tops Ivan,but if it comes-I'll ride it too. Like Tornado chasers, I guess but I don't care for tornadoes.
629. ridesthestorms 1:09 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Yes and the queit last for weeks. not even the sound of insects buzzing
Member Since: July 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
630. moonlightcowboy 1:11 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
G'morning, all.

No, peen hole eye this morning is there?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28207
631. MisterPerfect 1:20 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
No, peen hole eye this morning is there?

That question is relative to one's perception
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633. Patrap 1:22 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Man-yi warning and track graphic

Link
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634. Ivansurvivr 1:22 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
I was lucky. The bluffs got creamed by the surge and took the worst wind. It seemed like the bluffs deflected some of the wind. We still got hammered though. Ivan was different than other hurricanes i've been through. It came on really slow. The other storms i've been through were more "squally" or gusty. Ivan was different. It started more like rain you get in winter up north. I wonder if all the stronger ones do that.
635. moonlightcowboy 1:26 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 1:20 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.
No, peen hole eye this morning is there?

That question is relative to one's perception


...don't think I have any relatives with peen perception. Does an uncle with one eye count? lol
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28207
636. V26R 1:30 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Morning All, Whats with that blow up off the Carolina coast? Seems like from the bouy reports that there are wind shifts out there
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
637. weatherguy03 1:34 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
A piece of energy riding along old trough over North Carolina. Hit the warmer waters overnite and ignited some storms. That will weaken as it moves East today.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29681
638. weathermanwannabe 1:37 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Worst story I heard on Hurricane Andrew (not counting any tragic loss of life issues) from a friend was having his whole family in a panic as the house was blowing in, moving from room to room as roofs started coming off, and finally ending up in the garage sitting in the SUV;He and his wife were sitting in the front seat (kids and dog in the back) and he looked up and the roof of the garage just "peeled off"....Sat in the rain with the car "moving around", and kids and wife screaming, in the garage for another 2 hours or so.....Amazing...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
639. ricderr 1:37 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
there you go STL.......you've found the good doc in a mistake...i think your next move...is to have his phd and all honors stripped from him and handed to you.....we'll all be rushing to your blog for expert analyses in the future...ALL Hail STL.....ALL HAIL STL.....
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 630 Comments: 18090
640. MrNiceville 1:38 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Patrap;

Sent the link to my bud at Iwakuni earlier this morning. Hoping that since they're leaving more space to the east than to the west in the "cone of destruction" that they're thinking the future tracks will move further east.

If it doesn't, southern Japan will not be the place to be in about 84-96 hours...
641. BahaHurican 1:39 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Michael,

I thought WPac started (technically, anyway) their season over again in June. It just runs all year, unlike ours.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961
642. Ivansurvivr 1:39 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
If it's off the Carolina coast it would probably only be a problem for Bermuda. It would likely be extratropical this early in the season. Subtropical at best.
643. Patrap 1:41 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Iwakuni..now theres a memory . I was at Camp Hansen at Okinowa. 9th engineers up on the Hill.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968
644. Patrap 1:43 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Map of US bases and Interest at Okinawa

Link
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645. MisterPerfect 1:43 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    

...don't think I have any relatives with peen perception. Does an uncle with one eye count? lol

Sure but tell him to use the guest bathroom, I just cleaned mine.
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 69 Comments: 19470
646. V26R 1:43 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Thanks Weatherguy03
Seemed alittle wierd, but didn't see any
fronts in the area, makes sense now that
you pointed it out
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
647. V26R 1:46 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
true Ivan , but the way that it exploded
so quickly had me wondering, especially
since some of the bouys in the neighborhood
are showing winds from the WSW and if you move further North, a couple of them are showing an easterly fetch
Its probably just feeding off the Gulf Stream right now
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
648. Stormsabrewin 1:47 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Boy was Andrew fun. I was 7 at the time and we were in good old West Palm Beach, Florida soaking up the sun with my grandparents. I don't remember much but I do remember rushing into my dad's old maroon Izuzu trooper. I was mad because he cut our trip short by 3 days and I didn't know why. Then I saw the palm trees falling over. And the wind. God, you never forget that sound.

I yelled at the top of my lungs "Dad! Why are the palm trees falling over?" The response was "Just sit down and shut up...and stop looking out the window." I love my dad. He was in the Coast Guard at the time and was apparently warned of the approaching storm. Cleared it by what could only have been hours.
649. weatherguy03 1:49 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
Yeah V26, you get alittle energy to hit those waters at night and bang you will get convection.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29681
650. London 1:51 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
STL - when does the season in that region start? Won't this be the first of the season?
651. BahaHurican 1:51 PM GMT on July 10, 2007    
However, I just found this, so I guess you are right:

Unlike Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons, they run for the whole year, starting on January 1 and ending on December 31. These dates are when tropical cyclones usually form in the western half of the Pacific Ocean, north of the equator.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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