Bill Proenza gone; tropical update
With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."
The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.
Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Unlike Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons, they run for the whole year, starting on January 1 and ending on December 31. These dates are when tropical cyclones usually form in the western half of the Pacific Ocean, north of the equator.
We agree, Ivan was scariest yet. . Altho we had flooding as high from Katrina,surprisingly, considering where it made landfall, but the winds were not nearly as bad.
A Niceville survivor of Opal and Ivan and a raft of others
If I had it to do over again, I'd be a Marine.
I worked with the men and women at MFR in New Orleans, from one week before Katrina until last Feb. I've never met a more comitted cadre of people - no griping - just get it done!
From the development that has already occurred this evening, one can already see a great increase in central convective activity and the appearance of outflow banding on this storm (on the western side) for the first time - an indicator of an impending cycle of rapid intensification.
I would not be suprised at all if by sunrise that this immense system has attained cat 3 status, and be a super typhoon by this time tomorrow if shear remains kind to it.
Current Colour Enhanced IR Loop: Link
They already had 2 typhoons. One was a cat 4 on the SSHS.
Oh yes. That sure was a fun morning. I was in South Miami. Fun never sounded like that again...yet.
The lovely town of Niceville.
Don't forget Eloise...that took a lot of trees down around the lakeyard here in Defuniak Springs.
I don't remember a hurricane in the GOM last year. Wonder what the odds are of it happening 2 years in a row.
Same here. Ivan was worse than Opal in my opinion. Might have been because of the time that it passed over. Listening to your roof gables moan at 2 AM is not a sound I want to hear again any time soon!
But is a force in readiness.
Thus the Motto, First to Fight.
It stays with ya for life.
Semper fi ,for those words Niceville.
majkia - Niceville?
He/she might be your neighbor???!!!!!
Yup, Niceville. We're at the open end of Sarah Ann Bayou.
We're at the intersection of White Point Road and SR 20 - behind the Walgreens.
Ike - it would be nice, 2 years in a row. But I take nothing for granted. When we moved here in '94, we were REPEATEDLY told that there hadn't been a major hurricane in the area in 65 years - then Opal came along and started a new trend!
Storms comparable to this previously have tended to develop later on in August to October, during El Nino years, or those that are neutral with a warm trend.
Much like Gonu earlier this year, Man-Yi is a red flag that things are changing in the tropics in ways that we are unable to predict...
From the development that has already occurred this evening, one can already see a great increase in central convective activity and the appearance of outflow banding on this storm (on the western side) for the first time - an indicator of an impending cycle of rapid intensification.
I would not be suprised at all if by sunrise that this immense system has attained cat 3 status, and be a super typhoon by this time tomorrow if shear remains kind to it.
Really? That's kinda scary. All the major guys, jtwc, tropicalstormrisk, jma etc... are predicting only a brief spell as a supertyphoon near to Okinawa, 3 days away. That's very worrying, but i agree the storm looks really alive, and those waters are warm.
On a side note, here's another storm that had impressive outflow:
(1) 10N 52W
(2) 8n 29w
THE FIRST IS IN A SHEAR ENVIROMENT WHEREAS THE SECOND IS IN A BETTER ONE ALTHOUGH IT IS A BIT SOUTH
Link
check out this loop. there are two areas with some form of circulation.
(1) 10N 52W
(2) 8n 29w
From looking at the GFS model runs..that's the one, #2, with the best chance. It carried it...the moisture...all the way to the SE USA.
Its good to know its not just my computer.
If there's one headed for the panhandle of Florida, I leave!
i have to go soon
please reply
i have to go soon"....
An impressive area of convection to keep an eye on.
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