Bill Proenza gone; tropical update
With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."
The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.
Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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According to Wikipedia, the Tampa Bay area was hit by two powerful hurricanes in 3 years between 1845 and 1850.
Theres really no research being done. And you can look at the sources they have listed to see where they got that information.
Things have gotten hotter in the GOM, eh?
Only one ingredient, wind shear,is preventing formation.
Link
Finally got a responce from jeff masters on his thoughts on current trofiness of the eastcoast and he pretty much agrees with me on the fact that were seeing the same pattern as last year in place.
I sent him nash's comments on this season looking similar to 04.
What it means is that the A/B High is setting up shop in a similar position to what it did in late July of '04. We were also in an ENSO pattern somewhat similar to where we are now, and actually closer to El Nino.
His answer...
No, we're looking more like last year.
Strong trough over the eastern U.S.
Jeff
23 thanks for the post. there still is a strong trough in the Atlantic. Hopefully it remains in place. The only thing i see differant from last year is SST's are way warmer than this time last year. winds are starting to subside in the tropical atlantic.
Copy and Paste doesn't always make you look like the valedictorian...
The pattern is obvious if you know what your looking at but much here disagree so i thought i would let everyone know what jeff masters has been saying to me for weeks now.
Another trof of low pressure is set to move into the southeast this upcoming weekend and actually looks quite strong.My point is if this continues and remain at the same intensity it would play out in are favor as it would to turn away most tropical cyclones similar to 06.
23, that's pretty vague.
Why don't you post exactly what Dr. M said so that we can all benefit from it! Thanks
"pretty much agrees"
23, that's pretty vague.
Why don't you post exactly what Dr. M said so that we can all benefit from it! Thanks
Thats exactly what he said!!
I hope he is watching the blog so he can come in here and personally say it himself.I have no reason to make anything up and iam yes hoping for another quiet season this year and i will take any good news especially when it comes from jeff masters.
Link
On the 1887 and 1995 seasons, I noted some interesting similarities and differences. First, while both were high in storm numbers, both were also relatively low in landfall impacts. Only about a third of the storms in both years made landfall. The other interesting thing about both seasons is that they each had five "named" systems form before July 30th. Apparently 1887 still holds a record for number of storms forming outside the regular season, and had seen 3 tropical storms before the end of June.
However, they were very different in origin, track and impact of storms. In 1995, the bulk of the storms were Cape Verde originating, and (fortunately for the US) these curved out to sea. A smaller number of storms formed in the WCar, and these generally impacted land. In 1887, however, the Caribbean was a major formation area, with fewer than 1/2 the storms forming over the waters of the open Atlantic. This meant that land impacts (even when storm centres stayed offshore) were more frequent. Fortunately, most of the 1887 storms were much less powerful than those in 1995, which meant that the impacts were not as devastating. Frankly, the 1887 map looks like a serious high set up over the SW portion of the Atlantic hurricane basin. Good thing they didn't have the Allisons, Erins and Opals of the 1995 season.
Yes, Charley curved due to a shortwave trough that eroded the ridge and created the weakness that Charley followed.
Sure didn't really matter though. For the four hundredth time now..... Troughiness only matters if the storms form well out in the EATL. Anything forming in the Caribbean or Gulf will not be recurved.
It only takes ONE storm to ruin lives.
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