Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Bill Proenza gone; tropical update
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:35 PM GMT on July 09, 2007 +2
With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."

The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.

Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Politics
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Reader Comments
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51. Stormchaser2007 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Hey 27 how are you....
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248
52. Dodabear 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
27, Oh,OK. Not something I have in the phrase locker. I will work on that. Thanks.
Member Since: July 28, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2234
53. thisisfurious 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Doda - I guess I meant both.

But here is a good read for understanding what a "tool" is: Urban Dictionary!
54. bobw999 9:05 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Bill was pointing out flaws with NOAA. BAD IDEA BILL!!!! NOAA is operated by the government. NEVER, EVER CRITICIZE THE GOVERNMENT!!!!
55. ihave27windows 9:05 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Howdee chaser....How are you?
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14641
56. thisisfurious 9:05 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
It wasn't 27's opinion, but mine alone that I expressed.

I am sure 27 is of a much more pleasant demeanor.
57. Tropicnerd13 9:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
what happened to patrap, drak, nash, and jp???
58. IKE 9:07 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Posted By: Pachanga at 4:03 PM CDT on July 09, 2007.
A multi-million dollar party paid for by tax-payers to celebrate the anniversary of a program in need of reform IS a colossal failure on the part of the government!


I agree with you about the party situation.

I still don't think of them as a failure..not yet anyway.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
59. 0741 9:07 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
good job bill bad job jeff master his blog supporting noaa to take out bill
60. stormybil 9:07 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
what wave is worth watching
62. ihave27windows 9:08 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
I am sure 27 is of a much more pleasant demeanor.

That sounds like it was dripping with sarcasm......lol

Well, I shall take my leave. Have fun guys.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14641
63. Kbelle21 9:08 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
You have to love Politics.. it just makes me very sad to think that the field I chose to be in and the people I respect are full of Politics something that has no place in science... and something I want nothing to do with.
64. IKE 9:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Posted By: stormybil at 4:07 PM CDT on July 09, 2007.
what wave is worth watching


There's a wave/system at 6N,35W with a spin. Another wave coming off of Africa.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
65. RL3AO 9:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
There is absolutely nothing to watch in the Atlantic.
66. Drakoen 9:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
anyone have the link for the NCEP models?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
67. bobw999 9:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
This blog has become very childish.........
68. stormybil 9:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
thanks ike thats the one i was thinking of
69. Drakoen 9:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Posted By: Tropicnerd13 at 9:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

what happened to patrap, drak, nash, and jp???


I am here...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
70. avlos 9:10 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
thank god.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 8 Comments: 131
71. Dropsonde 9:10 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Very disappointing. The forecasters lost sight of the fact that Proenza was more than just a scientist, he was a bureaucrat who understood the necessity for "framing." The issue was never about Quikscat. Quikscat was just something to rally around for the REAL issue, which was the inter-agency budget fight. NOAA and Commerce wanted money for P.R., and the actual meteorologists wanted it for research. In the midst of an otherwise boring (to the media) budget fight, Proenza understood that it was necessary to have something that the media would fix on, and Quikscat provided this. I understand that they were trained as scientists, but whining to get him ousted because he may have distorted statistics to make an important point about budgeting is little more than scientific purism. Proenza was an advocate for what they supposedly wanted, more money for hurricane research. They acted against their own self-interest with their purism. Sometimes people just need to swallow the idea of "ends justifying the means."

None of this is a commentary on Rappaport. He should be a good agency head if he can get away from the academic bubble and have real-world experience managing a bureaucratic, inherently political entity, and dealing with what that entails.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 414
72. Tropicnerd13 9:10 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
the one by south america, the one off the coast of africa, and the one between. hey 27ws, who are the trolls and who are the tools?
73. Drakoen 9:11 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Also does anyone have a loop for the Caribbean and central Atlantic that does not require java? For some reason that loops that i was using 20 minutes ago are not working now.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
74. Tropicnerd13 9:12 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
sorry drak, i just didnt see your entries. any waves look any more impressive in the atlantic? im thinking about updating my blog if nothing interesting is going on...
75. Drakoen 9:13 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
no thats it. The one of Africa and the one in the ITCZ are about it. There is also one in the Caribbean but i think its moving inland.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
76. JupiterFL 9:13 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
At least we don't have to hear about it anymore. Obviously this guy had leadership problems. The main thing, in running any business, is that you have the respect of the people who work for you. They may not always agree with your system but they don't try to undermine you as the boss. Once this takes place, the whole organization will come to a grinding halt and eventually shut down.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
77. Tropicnerd13 9:13 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
drak, does the one on the tropical homepage require java?
78. IKE 9:14 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Convection firing north of Panama...should move into the Pacific.

A wave entering the extreme SE Caribbean sea.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
79. bobw999 9:15 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    


Man-yi looks like it will become a Super Typhoon.
80. Tropicnerd13 9:16 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
maybe we should stop talking about tropical systems and start the talk about subtropical systems and the northers.
81. bobw999 9:17 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
maybe we should stop talking about tropical systems and start the subtropical systems and the northers.

huh??????
82. IKE 9:18 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
LOL
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
83. Tropicnerd13 9:19 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
you know, those big swirly things (yes, a technical term) that go up and hit greenland and canada? i think some of those are interesting...
84. avlos 9:19 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
I am glad that Proenza is gone. You cannot have the Director of a scientific agency using questionable science to get his agenda across. The forecasters absolutely did the right thing by not going along with this. They were brought into the public by Proenza by his blatant misquoting of them and had every right to put their retorts through public channels if only to clear their names. I am glad this situation has been addressed before the season really ramps up.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 8 Comments: 131
85. Tropicnerd13 9:21 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
alright. seems there isnt much tropical weather to our concern. what about local weather? anybody see some interesting weather lately?
86. bobw999 9:22 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
you know, those big swirly things (yes, a technical term) that go up and hit greenland and canada? i think some of those are interesting...

You mean extratropical storms and Noreasters? We have to get through hurricane season first.
87. stormybil 9:23 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
why didnt ed get it in the first place before bill . unless he didnt want it . he was my choice all along
88. bobw999 9:23 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Tropical Storm Man-yi Link
89. Tropicnerd13 9:23 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
oh. thats odd. i thought i saw something on the map that looked like one. i'll have to look at a different map.
91. IKE 9:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Here's something interesting to me. We've had 4.41 inches of rain so far this month here in Defuniak Springs, FL. That averages over 13 for July if it's maintained.....great news for the dirt that takes up half of my front yard and the grass.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
92. Tropicnerd13 9:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
YAY! where? must see....
93. Pachanga 9:26 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Jupiter, I respect your view, but your forgetting one important thing...government doesn't run like any other business. In fact, in government what you will usually find is that the best person for the job usually isn’t the person given the job. Or like in the case of Bill, if that person gets the job, they usually won’t keep it because they push for reform, which of course nobody wants, especially if you have a plush government job!
94. IKE 9:27 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Posted By: hurricanehunter93 at 4:24 PM CDT on July 09, 2007.
Dave Cocherella with CFNEWS13 Just said that stalled out frontal boundry in the atlantic formed an area of low pressure in it and may develop in 2-3 days


If it's the area east of the Carolina's, that's headed to the Atlantic graveyard.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
95. RL3AO 9:27 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Hey guys. Did you know that there is an invest only 1400 miles away from the United States?
97. stoormfury 9:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
A very active ITCZ



LinkLink
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2303
98. stormybil 9:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
Hey guys. Did you know that there is an invest only 1400 miles away from the United States?

HERE WE GO AGAIN OK I BITE WHERE
100. Tropicnerd13 9:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
yeah, ike. i am having the backwards effect. i live in southeastern texas and my yard has been a swampy pit for the last 20 days. you know how they say that the polar ice caps are melting and the ocean water level will rise? if ice takes up more space than water, wont it decrease?
101. RL3AO 9:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2007    
90C is 1400 miles away from Hawaii.

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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