Bill Proenza gone; tropical update
With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."
The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.
Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.
Jeff Masters
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10/1433 UTC 13.9N 135.4E T4.5/4.5 MAN-YI
You can take that two ways 1) Things are above normal and likely to continue or 2) its time for below-normal season.
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Hey drakoen hows your day?, im not so sure what the MJO is but if it is here the 12th then doesent that mean we can start seeing systems forming?
I am good. The MJO its already here in a weak state. Basically the mositure content increase therefore allowing more favorable conditions for development as far as moisture goes.
Is it my imagination or are the waves that are between 30W and 50 W holding together better than the previous ones?? Not saying they will make it, but could be a trend?
It is the ITCZ. so the moisture is increased by that. Waveshave a more moist environment when the head to the south then west. The SAL is still there to the north, but i expect that to change once the MJO gets over there.
so we could possibly see some development within the next couple days?
i don't think so maybe next week...
Dr. Masters will probably give his 2-week forcaste by Monday, July 16th. It will be interesting to see how the A/B high looks at that time.
Posted By: JoshNHurricanes at 9:17 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.
so we could possibly see some development within the next couple days?
i don't think so maybe next week...
By next week we will be hitting lips with fingers sideways going bbbbbbbbbbbbb. LOL By August we may be stark raving mad, I think it's the two storms early, we were spoiled very very fast.
........................... I don't see a repeat of either 2005 or 2006. Every season has its own identity. 2004 was different from 2005 which was different from 2006..........................
I think you are right about the uniqueness of this season. I'm human and impaitient though.
As a sidelight a friend of mine went swimming yesterday with a air raft in the gulf, she said the water was just like a warm bath.
Don't rock the boat, even if it is in public safety's interest..
I would still like to know why the NOAA let QuickSCAT get so bad, but yet spent a couple million on an office party??
Michale.....
Still waiting for wind shear to calm down. Also, African Dust and dry air across the Atlantic is still prevelant.
Reminds me a lot of ole hurricane frances that pummeled Florida for 3 days due to its massive circulation. It came very close to us actually, we had litereally 2 days straight of tropical storm force winds and heavy bands of rain that pounded us. Dumped almost 20 inches of rain here, ripped roofs off mobile homes downed tons of wires and flooded raodways and swelled drainage ditches past their banks.
Eccept Man-yi is even bigger, reminds me of typhoon tip, not quite that big, but its darn big enough.
more rain than the stronger ones. Irene 1999
was a wet one, Ivan seemed like a "dry one" So did Andrew.
which one was near normal? 2006 or 2004?
06 and 02...I missed one, corrected.
This year has been the same way 4 much of Texas, just didn't have a name this time. Weaker tropical systems(in my experiences)
more rain than the stronger ones. Irene 1999
was a wet one, Ivan seemed like a "dry one" So did Andrew.
It just seems that way because the windsa and surge take all the attention, but Ivan produced plenty of rain, as for Andrew well, was too small and moved very fast, if it was larger and smallr moving it would have allowed its torrents to build up.
See the reason why is more organized hurreicanes typically moved faster, and about half of hurricanes that become strong also shrinks, which lessens their potential to accumulate lots of rain.
However, the intensity of the storms rain actually does increase as it gets stronger.
As I already mentioned, the surge and winds take the attention as hurricanes get strong.
Oh and another big thingas hurricane winds get very intense, rain guages cannot efficiently or accurately collect how much rain falls due to rain spraying sideways and blowing in odd directions with the wind as it richochets of buildings and other strcutures. As a result, more rain can easily fall then actually reported in a hurricane as it attains higher entensities
Hope that explains it for ya.
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